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Professor John Robertson OBA

The 11-14 February 2025 Holyrood poll of party preferences, above, and on independence, below, is based on a sample that has been adjusted, ‘weighted‘ to match the result of the 2014 referendum – a ratio of 45/55 or 9/11 for Yes/No.

So, the initial sample of 347 who had voted Yes and 267 who had voted No, is adjusted to 278 Yes and 334 No. Had the sample not been adjusted, weighted, there was a sizable Yes majority over No of 347/267 or 56% to 44%.

Why is the sample weighted? As I understand it, previous electoral events are thought to offer a guide to what the sample should look like. When little time has passed, in which new voters have joined and older voters have left the electorate, such weighting might increase the accuracy of the prediction but when more than 10 years have passed, from September 2014 to February 2025, a distortion rather than a correction may have taken place.

In this case, more than half a million younger voters, known to be 70% Yes supporters, have joined the electorate and an equivalent number of older voters, known to be 70% No voters have left. It’s hard to see this as other than an adjustment to conceal current trends.

Why do pollsters then do this, time after time?

Skeptics, like me, smell a rat. Positive results for the SNP and Yes, would catch on. People are attracted to success. It is only the lack of clear consistent positive poll results supporting independence that enables opposition parties to claim the public has no appetite for another referendum.

Source:

https://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20180225.pdf

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