10th sub-poll in a row confirms Reform UK in second place, death of Cons and SNP 21 points ahead of Labour for second time in a row

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By Professor John Robertson OBA, former Faculty Research Ethics Chair, UWS

Since the 2nd of December 2024, I’ve been monitoring the Scottish sub-polls of 100-200, in UK-wide Westminster polls which have a breakdown for Scotland. Each sub -poll, in and of itself, is too small to offer a reliable predictor of electoral support but 10 of them adds up to well over 1 000 respondents, the common minimum size of full polls, and they’re all saying something very similar. Also, these sub-polls do not suffer from the sample weighting in most larger Scotland-only polls, to reflect the 2014 referendum outcome, and distort the picture by ignoring the half million new (70% pro-Indy) voters and the half million older (70% pro-Union) voters leaving the electoral role.

Today’s poll from YouGov based on 2 419 across the UK, including 229 Scots, (18 plus only so slightly under-estimating SNP support), has

UK:

  • Con – 21%
  • Lab – 24%
  • LD – 14%
  • SNP – 3%
  • Reform UK – 25%
  • Green – 9%

Scotland:

  • Con – 10%
  • Lab – 17%
  • LD – 12%
  • SNP – 38%
  • Reform UK – 19%
  • Green – 3%
  • Alba/SSP – 1%

This follows 9 previous polls showing, with this latest:

  1. The SNP support steadily growing from 34% to 38%.
  2. The Cons collapsing to barely double figures.
  3. Labour losing second place to Reform UK
  4. Scottish Labour consistently struggling to achieve half the UK Labour share suggesting Sarwar is the problem for them.
  5. The Lib Dems up a bit and probably secure in their Northern and Fife refuges.
  6. The Scottish Greens still weak after their experience ‘in government’ and the consequent media assault on them
  7. Alba? Gone.

The Opinium poll for 7 February:

The previous 8:

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6 thoughts on “10th sub-poll in a row confirms Reform UK in second place, death of Cons and SNP 21 points ahead of Labour for second time in a row”

  2. I wonder about the mentality of those Scots allegedly planning to vote Reform. It’s not even a political party, but a private company, owned by two grifters, who want to abolish our Parliament. Why?

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    1. I don’t believe there is anywhere near the support for Reform as being reported in the UK – On English forums nobody has a good word to say about Farage or Tice, on Scottish forums they’re openly detested – I can’t help but suspect this is a stunt by a Cambridge Analytica type organisation….

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      1. Hi Bob, Diane Abbott stated yesterday that “her party was playing Mug’s game by following Farage on Migration” she had also tweeted on 5 February this year that “Colleagues seem to think turning the Labour Party into Reform-lite will save their parliamentary seat. Completely delusional”. She included with that tweet a picture of Farage and the Labour party Logo.

        She also added yesterday that ‘ With Labour legitimising Reform UK’s arguments what is then stopping voters just voting , in the future, for the Reform UK party instead of the Labour party’.

        She does have a point as we all remember the former Labour MP Caroline Flint who went all uber Tory Brexit in the 2019 UK GE, she then lost her seat to a Tory in that election, with her having held that Don Valley seat since 1997, proving that in her endorsing and promoting a Tory Brexit you are then giving the people more reason to vote Tory, as it was their policy, as opposed to them voting for a pound shop Tory wannabee like Flint.

        Karma was for her a B*tch.

        Liz S

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        1. True, unless you look beyond the surface of the layer the cake.
          Gary Stevenson lifted the lid some weeks back over this ‘immigration’ gambit being played.
          It’s straight from the 1930s Germany handbook – Give the general populace a foreigner to blame for the ills they suffer, demonise them, and they won’t come after us.
          The ‘Scottish subsidy spongers’ fiasco was pretty much the same psy-ops style of campaign against England’s populace, but as ever the only evidence of it’s success came from the media itself, the ‘news where you are…”.
          Similarly the QEUH campaign initiated under Sarah Smith’s rule – It only really existed as ‘real’ in the media-political bubbleverse, the sane 99% of the populace ignored it and developed Dolby-BBC NR.
          In the current rerun of the ‘furrnr’ gambit (aka small boats), it’s all about diversion to levelling up taxes for the richest in society, actually paying their fair share instead of buying your own home from under you – Viz asset acquisition.
          The entire gambit plays on and manipulates submerged but latent racism in all societies, right down to the next village in some cases – We may not like to admit it, but there is always a them and us to be exploited…

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