On January 14, 2025, I had the above, based on 7 Westminster sub-polls unaffected by bias, resulting from adjusting the sample to reflect the more than 10 years old 2014 referendum result, still used in all-Scotland polls and suggesting we’re still ‘even Stevens’ (not Flynn) on the yes/no vote while the SNP remain in the doldrums.
Today, from YouGov:
UK-wide
- Con – 22%
- Lab – 27%
- LD – 14%
- Reform UK – 23%
- Green – 9%
Scottish Sub-poll (214)
- Con – 13%
- Lab – 15%
- LD – 13%
- Reform UK – 17%!
- SNP – 34%
- Green – 5%
Regardless of the SNP support not back at full strength, though Op Branchform looks like withering soon, this suggests an SNP wipe-out other than in the LibDem seats. Transferred to Holyrood, I feel sure we can say the SNP position would be stronger still.
Note also, the huge gap between Starmer Labour and Sarwar Labour making clear that the blame for Scottish Labour’s poor performance has more to do with Anas’ lack of appeal than any Starmer effect of the kind Prof Curtice often talks about.
The Reform UK support, in second place, does look scary but seems unlikely to take them into first-palce anywhere.
Alba – nowhere.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
You’ve heard the story of the tortoise and the hare, right?
Well, the Scottish tortoise has some doping added into the mix by the way of MSM.
Nearer Scottish election time they will go into hyperdrive.
If you think they spout a lot a drivel and lies now, just you wait.
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These figures do not suggest that a pro Independence majority is likely. The SNP needs to cooperate with other Indy parties, in particular by urging its supporters to vote for them, rather than the SNP on the List vote if an Indy majority is what it wants. Even with that strategy, it is far from certain and will require work on explaining the benefits of Independence.
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I remain deeply sceptical over Reform polling – Despite clear anger over Starmer et al on English forums, there is zero evidence of Farage etc having any support whatever – Despite dismay over Labour in Scotland, they are nowhere near so despised as the Farage lot, so the polling figures make no sense whatever….
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