The Talking-up Scotland fund raiser primarily to enable the recruitment of some research assistance, in order to take pressure off me [74 in June and tiring] and hopefully to further improve the blog, has made a good start. To contribute, only if you can (!) go to: Talking-up Scotland - a Politics crowdfunding project in Ayr by Professor John Robertson

By Professor John Robertson OBA

You really need to have a listen to David, above at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly93w1kr04o

You might want to have your hands tied behind your back and/or any throwable objects safely away from you before you listen to his Pythonesque delivery.

Have you done that? Are you calm yet? If so, let’s deal with the content.

First, has NHS Scotland, ‘particularly‘, more so than England and Wales, failed to return to pre-Covid productivity levels?

Productivity Measure 1 – operations completed?

Nearly 25 000 planned in the last quarter of 2024, up from around 3 000 in April 2020 but still down from the pre-pandemic peak of 28 000.¹ Is it fair to suggest that an 800% increase in only 4 years is some kind of failure? Note also that in this period, typically, only 2% have been cancelled due to temporary lack of staff and/or operating theatres. Is it just me or is this actually a bl***y good show Dave? Dave?

Second, has Scotland done less well than England?

Productivity Measure 2 – waiting lists?

Well by every measure other than the 2 year waiting list, where the Tories just chucked cash at the private sector in England to clear hip replacements and other non-life-threatening conditions for PR reasons only, NHS Scotland has demonstrably shorter, per head of population, waiting lists. See these for the details and sources:

ONS reveals NHS waiting lists for planned care are twice as long in Wales and 40% longer in England, than in Scotland

The shortest waiting lists in the UK but BBC Scotland quote Sandesh Gulhane and Jackie Baillie in a 2 minute report to lie about NHS Scotland – factually better on the 4 key measures of A&E, cancer, 18 weeks and overall waiting list

Finally, what was that extra £1.5bn for?

The budget for 2024/2025 totals £21.7bn.²

The £1.5bn is 6.9%. Inflation has been 9.1% in 2022, 7.3% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024.³ Pay settlements in the NHS have been recently well above inflation and for 2024/2025 will be at 5.5%.⁴

That’s the 6.9% well swallowed.

Dave? you know about inflation and cost of pay increases don’t you? Dave?

Sources:

1. https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancelled-planned-operations/cancelled-planned-operations-month-ending-31-october-2024/
2. https://healthandcare.scot/stories/4017/health-social-care-funding-scottish-budget#:~:text=Scotland%E2%80%99s%20proposed%202025-26%20budget%20plan%20includes%20record%20spending,balance%20of%20care%E2%80%9D%20to%20preventative%20and%20community-based%20support.
3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/306720/cpi-rate-forecast-uk/
4. https://www.gov.scot/publications/nhs-staff-pay/

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