From a YouGov poll today, with data collected on 19-20 January 2024 and based on a sample of 2 466 aged 18+:

• Con – 22%
• Lab – 26%
• Lib Dem – 14%
• Greens – 9%
• Reform UK – 24%

with a Scottish sub-poll of 215:

• Con – 14%
• Lab – 16%
• Lib Dem – 13%
• Green – 5%
• Reform UK – 16%
• SNP – 36%

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51428-voting-intention-lab-26-ref-24-con-22-19-20-jan-2025

Previously, 7 comparable sub-polls, staring on 2/12/2024, produced these averages:

• Con – 13%
• Lab – 20%
• Lib Dem – 11%
• Greens – 7%
• Reform – 16%
• SNP – 35%

These sub-polls have the obvious disadvantage, on their own, of being too small for reliability but, in contrast to larger Scotland-only polls of around 1 000, of not being weighted according to the 2014 referendum result which seems likely to be skewing the results in favour of Unionist parties.

This 8th sub-poll confirms the stability of the SNP support at around 35%, the division of the opposition, the collapse of Conservative support in Scotland, the failure of Sarwar to maintain Labour support at UK levels and the relatively modest Reform UK ‘surge’ in Scotland, with a resulting situation where the SNP is in a strong position to ‘come through the gap’ and take nearly all of the Constituencies. The Lib Dem strongholds in the North and in Fife, held by a party not susceptible to Reform damage, may remain in their hands.

With quite a few Reform Regional MSPs now inevitable, we can look forward to entertaining, if at times disturbing, scenes in Holyrood.

It may be that with the 16-18 year-olds included the SNP lead might be larger.

With 6 parties now, the Regional seat share and consequently, the final picture, is beyond my wits. Possibly another SNP minority government but very little prospect of FM Sarwar.