Based on the last 7 polls with a breakdown sub-poll for Scotland, the averages are as above in the table.
This is based on quite small and, on their own, unreliable sub-samples of between 100 and 200 Scots, 18+, but taken together they add up to around the 1 000 mark, required for a reasonable survey.
Almost every Scotland-only poll has its sample adjusted to match the 2014, 55 No / 45 Yes, ratio, reducing, it seem probable, the SNP/Green support.
At 35%, for this Westmnister poll the SNP would be well down on their 2021 figure of 47.7% but with Labour down 2%, Cons down almost 9% and Reform entering the field at 16%, the constituency seats look wide open, including the Borders and North-East Con seats but, with a potential doubling of their share, the Lib Dems seem likely to hang on in the North and in Fife. The Greens would be down just over 1% but seem out of freefall and would survive.
With quite a few Reform MSPs now inevitable, we can look forward to entertaining, if at times disturbing, scenes in Holyrood.
It may be that with the 16-18 year-olds included the SNP lead might be larger.
With 6 parties now, the Regional seat share and consequently, the final picture, is beyond my wits. Possibly another SNP minority government but very little prospect of FM Sarwar.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
The SNP 1 and any other pro Indy party 2 argument is out of the window now.
It was slightly predictable when the SNP was almost in a majority on the FPTP results alone, with the Labour and Tory parties almost mopping up the regional seats.
If the vote shares are any thing like they are now the outcome of both elections would be totally unpredictable.
The core voters for each party would probably become reluctant to loan either of their votes to another party because of the risks involved.
Consequently to add to the mix Reform UK’s vote share might not sustain its current level of support from disillusioned Labour and Tory voters.
interesting days ahead in the lead up to the 2026 Holyrood elections.
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‘The SNP 1 and any other pro Indy party 2 argument is out of the window now?’
Are you able to write a bit more on this or suggest a reading to confirm what, I’ll admit, still confuses me?
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I reckon this sums it up succinctly, from SNP website…………A majority pro-independence government, against all odds.So how did voters in Scotland do it?
At the elections, the SNP won 53 constituency seats on the first vote. But it was the 16 seats won on the regional list, with voters second vote, that got the SNP over the line.
It was with people voting Both Votes SNP that secured the first majority government.
Other parties say that you don’t have to vote Both Votes SNP in order to vote for independence. They say people should vote for them instead.
But they said the same in 2016 – and the SNP lost its majority.
Holyrood got less pro-independence MSPs, and Westminster used it as an excuse to question Scotland’s pro-independence mandate.
JB
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Thanks
Very helpful
John
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Pardon my scepticism on Reform hitting big in Scotland – They may be picking up some protest votes on polling in Scotland, but on election day the sensible head goes on. Some disenchanted Tories perhaps but that’ll be about it really.
It’s a very different situation in England where the protest vote used to go to one or the other party, but now seen as two cheeks of the same arse.
They are about to learn what Scots already did, Westminster can grow new cheeks or even a whole new arse to hang onto power….
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A wild shot at something positive, in these driech times, I certainly need a positive, however slight, outlook.
With the possibility of Reform being the opposition party in Holyrood and the likely hood of increasing disenchantment with the English voter threatening the cosy duopoly there, might there be a different slant to media coverage in Scotland.
Not praise for the SNP, let’s be realistic, but criticism for Reform and by default making SNP look better.
I should perhaps sign off as the Desperate Straw Clutcher.
a ps, I was typing duopoly above, it could have been two cheeks of the same arse, then had the thought, “can an arse have three cheeks?”
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Too good a question to leave lying around:
I am not sure if it is three or if it is four but there was a woman named Myrtle Corbin who had two pelvises and four legs and two fully functional vaginas. I would assume that she’d also have two functioning anuses, but I’m unsure how it worked. Also unsure about exact number of buttcheeks. Could be three, could be four. https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/5n88w9/have_there_been_cases_of_people_being_born_with/
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You threw the carrot, I had to look it up.
A doctor named her condition, posterior dichotomy, so possibly 4.
She, Myrtle, had 5 children and a seemingly healthy productive life.
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