By Professor John Robertson OBA

The Herald, today, with the above, a strange reference to Celtic only, and this opening text:

Officers public safety concern over ScotGov police commitment ‘fail’ as crimes rise. Ministers have been warned about a risk to public safety as a past SNP commitment to have at least 17,236 police officers in post has been ‘reneged’ upon while the number of recorded crimes has started to rise.

It’s nonsense, all of it.

The true facts are, from open, transparent, official, checkable statistics, in Police officer quarterly strength statistics: 30 September 2024, is:

Police officer numbers increased by 220 FTE officers (+1.4%) in the last quarter from 30 June 2024

This is an increase of 193 FTE police officers (+1.2%) from the 16,234 FTE police officers recorded at 31 March 2007

https://www.gov.scot/publications/police-officer-quarterly-strength-statistics-30-september-2024/

From indeed, the Scottish average salary is £40 926 and the English average is £34 807 making the average Scottish police officer £6 000, 15%, better off.^{1, 2}

Starting salaries?

Scotland – £30 039.³

England? Between £28,551 and £29,907.⁴

Crime rate?

Scotland – 55 crimes per 1 000 people

England – 89.7

Staffing to deal with crime?

Scotland – 316 officers per 100 000 people.

England – 228.

So, Scotland is 27.8% better staffed.

Sources:

1. https://uk.indeed.com/cmp/Police-Scotland/salaries/Police-Officer
2. https://uk.indeed.com/career/police-officer/salaries
3. https://www.scotland.police.uk/about-us/finance/pay-and-grading-structure/
4. https://careers.northumbria.police.uk/police-officer/benefits/#:~:text=With%20a%20top%20salary%20of,Superintendent%20%C2%A399%2C612%20%E2%80%93%20%C2%A3111%2C117
5. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1030625/crime-rate-uk/#:~:text=The%20crime%20rate%20in%20the,just%2052.3%20by%202021/22.
6. https://policeprofessional.com/news/england-and-wales-have-fewer-police-officers-than-any-major-european-nation/

Finally, crime:

Many of us, understandably are skeptical about the picture of falling crime painted by statistics based on police recording. Correctly, we point to the fact that much crime is known to be unreported and unrecorded.

However, the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS), carried out by independent University-based researchers interviews around 5 000 Scots asking them to speak of ‘their experiences of, and attitudes to, a range of issues related to crime, policing and the justice system, including crime not reported to the police.‘

This is gold standard research and can be trusted to reveal the world as experienced by the wider population.

The survey update published today reveals:

Crime has fallen by 53% since 2008-09. Results from the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) show that around one in ten adults were victims of crime in 2021-22 (10.0%), down from 11.9% in 2019-20. This compares to one in five in 2008-09 (20.4%). 

The SCJS showed the volume of violent crime fell by nearly three-fifths (58%) between 2008-09 and 2021-22.

Looking at more recent Police Scotland recording:

Recorded sexual crimes decreased in the most recent year. Sexual crimes decreased by 3%, from 14,834 in the year ending June 2023 to 14,417 in the year ending June 2024.

The clear up rate for all recorded crimes was 54.1% in 2023-24, up from 53.3% in 2022-23. Crimes against society (91.4%), non-sexual crimes of violence (68%) and sexual crimes (57.2%) continued to have higher clear up rates in 2023-24 than crimes of dishonesty (33.1%) and damage and reckless behaviour (29.6%).

There were 61,934 incidents of domestic abuse recorded by the police in 2022-23, a decrease of 4% on 2021-22. In 2022-23, 39% of all incidents recorded by the police included the recording of at least one crime or offence.

 Between 2020-21 and 2021-22, the number of crimes and offences in which a firearm was alleged to have been involved decreased by 23% (from 353 to 273 offences). The 2021-22 figure is the lowest recorded level since comparable records began in 1980.

How does all this compare with other parts of the UK?

In 2022/23, however, Scotland’s crime rate was the lowest in the UK, with the crime rate in England and Wales rising noticeably during the same period. Scotland’s homicide rate has also fallen, from being the highest in the UK in 2002/03, to the lowest as of 2022/23.

Sources:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/safer-communities-justice-statistics-monthly-data-report-october-2024-summary-justice-safer-communities-statistics/pages/5/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/370395/scotland-crime-rate-local-authorities/#:~:text=Comparisons%20with%20the%20rest%20of%20the%20UK&text=In%202022%2F23%2C%20however%2C,lowest%20as%20of%202022%2F23