By Professor John Robertson OBA

Two days ago, I noticed this research report from the USA casting doubt on the effectiveness of cancer treatment to avert a spike in deaths:

At the peak of the shortage, about 15% of patients probably had trouble accessing a platinum chemotherapy drug, the study found. But there was good news, too: Despite the shortages, the study team could find no difference in death rates for patients with solid tumor cancers in 2023 versus the year before.

^{https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2024-12-24/last-years-platinum-based-drugs-shortage-didnt-raise-cancer-deaths-study-found#:~:text=At%20the%20peak%20of%20the,2023%20versus%20the%20year%20before.}

I was then reminded of two previous times when opposition parties and their pals in the ‘Scottish’ media had used similar shortages to cast doubt on the competence of NHS Scotland and by association SNP health secretaries or FMs.

First, back in April 2019, Summers told presenter Jackie Bird, on the basis of a single source, that the Oncology department’s use of a reduced chemotherapy dose for breast cancer patients:

pointed to the possibility of a dysfunctional department. ‘Detectives’ spoke of pharmacy and nursing staff who said they had concerns about the change of procedures, but they felt they were not being listened to and that their position was one above.

Only Reporting Scotland used the word ‘dysfunctional’. The BBC website and all the papers I looked at (8) did not use the term either. They had not checked the statistics which showed that the mortality rate in that department was just below the national average.

By August the same year, evidence caused them to quietly backtrack but only on the website and with no apologies for any stress they may have caused to staff and patients:

Quietly, out of the media glare, NHS Tayside A&E has been world-beating.

Over all, NHS Scotland does 85-90% within 4 hours, below the target of 95%. NHS England is lucky to ever make 80%.

Rural boards such as Orkney regularly hit the target but urban areas rarely do.

For years, NHS Tayside’s A&E Department in Dundee has been close to 100% and only twice in the last ten years has it slipped just below 95%, to 94.9% in December 2017, ‘the worst winter ever for NHS England’ and to 93.9% in June 2021, during a heatwave when folk get out and do stupid things in rivers and lochs.

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/ae-activity-and-waiting-times/ae-activity-and-waiting-times-month-ending-30-june-2021/

Second, in February 2021, during the Covid 19 pandemic:

Throughout the day today, this from BBC Scotland:

A Scottish cancer charity says it’s supporting patients who have a lower chance of survival, because Covid led to services being put on hold. During the first lockdown, 4 000 fewer people were diagnosed with the disease, when screening and testing was put on hold. Although services are back up and running, Cancer Support Scotland say it’s seeing patients who’ll die sooner because of a delay in their diagnosis.

We’ve been hearing of tsunamis of cancer deaths since the early days of the pandemic restrictions. The first use of the word, I can find was on the 3rd April, 10 months ago. Since then, we’ve seen a flood of tsunamis, expertly surfed by Monica Lennon and she was still riding the wave in November, unconcerned by the evidence that it might not be real.

Here are just some of the reports predicting the tsunami of death:

But, what’s the evidence?

On December 6th, from Pete Whitehouse, Director of Statistical Services at the National Records of Scotland on 2nd December: 

Excess deaths from all causes began to increase in October, but this is almost entirely due to the corresponding rise in COVID-19 deaths. Deaths from causes such as respiratory diseases and cancer are below average levels for this time of year.

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2020/deaths-involving-covid-19-week-48-23th-29th-november

Over the whole of 2020, cancer deaths seem to have reduced.

Now, I hesitate here due to my lack of expertise. Readers may be able to correct or help out. I will change this section if I have to.

But according to the NRS, there were 16 275 deaths due to ‘Malignant Neoplasms (C00-C97)’ but there had been 16 478 in the previous year, 2019.

I can’t see any sign of other types of cancer in the NRS data, if there are any.

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths-registered-in-scotland

While some of these deaths may not yet have happened yet, surely enough will have to push the figures up?

When I first became aware of this apparent anomaly of fewer cancer deaths this year, I wrote to several professors of oncology and epidemiology – no answers. I wrote to several politicians responsible or opposition spokespersons for health – vague non-answers.

Update:

My wife, not an epidemiologist but a TV detective, has suggested: ‘What if Covid killed many before they could die of the cancer they had?’

Could there be enough of them to stem the tide, so to speak?

That was December 2020. Has the tsunami of cancer deaths arrived yet, well-over a year since treatment was reduced?

The NRS data has only malignant neoplasms, circulatory, respiratory and other causes of death so I take the first is the same as cancer deaths.

So, between 2019 and 2020, no tsunami, no significant change at all and between 2019 and 2021 so far, a reduction in cancer deaths in 4 out of 5 months.

I’ve written to all sorts of experts, not one reply.

A 2024 update, to see any sign of the tsunami of cancer deaths.

• January 1 438
• February 1 282
• March 1 436
• April 1 365
• May 1 333
• June 1 339
• July 1 397
• August 1 402
• September 1 283
• October 1 397

Not significantly different? No sign of Monica Lennon’s tsunami of cancer deaths she might accuse the SNP for.

Source: https://nrscotland.gov.uk/publications/monthly-mortality-analysis-scotland/#