Today from Opinium based on data collected from 1 537, on 18-12 December 2024, we see:

• Con – 23%
• Lab – 29%
• Lib Dem -11%
• Reform – 22%
• Green – 10%

The Scottish subset of 110 has:

• Con 15%
• Lab – 19%
• Lib Dem – 11%
• Reform – 14%
• Green – 5%
• SNP – 35%

A sub poll of only 110 has clear limitations in terms of reliability but this is the latest of 4 [c600 subjects in total] all telling the same story, of Cons, Lab and Reform all doing less well in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK and way behind the SNP.

Source: https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/VI-2024-12-18-Observer-Data-Tables-211224.xlsx

In the December 12th Find Out Now, Westminster poll of 2 659, we saw:

• Con – 23%
• Lab – 26%
• Lib Dem – 11%
• Reform – 25%
• Green – 9%

The Scottish subset of 223, has:

• Con – 12%
• Lab – 23%
• LD – 5%
• Reform – 16%
• Green – 8%
• SNP – 34%

Source: https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/

Only December 8th,  I noted:

From Find Out Now on 4 December 2024, the UK figures put Labour in third place with 23%, behind Reform at 24% and the Cons at 26%. The Scottish sub-set of only 118, has SNP 39%, Labour 21%, Cons 13%, Reform, Greens and Lib Dems at 8%. https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-4th-dec-2024/

The above 18% lead is much larger than previous sub-polls and, more so, than in several ‘full’ Scottish polls other than the most recent Norstat poll for the Sunday Times on 7 December. https://www.thetimes.com/article/49b721e9-6777-478a-99a6-b196fd736573?shareToken=4cd918a5746334e1e87dc80c9c19c3ac

The More in Common poll on 29 November to 2 December, with 102 Scots, which also has a much bigger SNP lead than in earlier polls, at 15% over Labour – Con 17%, Labour 19%, Lib Dems 12%, Reform 13%, SNP 34% and Greens on only 4%:  

https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/fnshtp12/december-2-voting-intention.xlsx

Full polls while having more reliable sample sizes of 1-2k as opposed to 1-2 hundred, have been criticised for their samples being weighted to reflect the 2104 referendum result. This may be biasing their results in favour of Unionist parties.

These sub polls are individually too small but, collectively, are now approaching the preferred sample size of 1 000, are not subject to distortion by 2014 vote sample weighting, as all or most full polls are and, notably all saying that the SNP, though well below the 2021 vote share, seem likely to be consistently so far ahead of the opposition that, in a first-past-the-post system they could take almost all of the constituencies.