Professor John Robertson OBA
From the Scottish Government’s Suspected drug deaths in Scotland, published today:
- Quarter 1 – 320 deaths
- Q2 – 269
- Q3 – 244
- Total for 2024 so far – 833.
This is the first clearly falling trend on record, with the quarterly level varying little in the years before that, since the peak of 413 in Q2 2020.
The totals for Q1 – Q3 only:
- 2020 – 1 047
- 2021 – 1 007
- 2022 – 797
- 2023 – 900
- 2024 – 833
Annual variations count for little, mean little, but trends over 5 years tell you what is really happening and, based on police observations of mortality scenes (presence of drug abuse material), the trend in Scotland is clearly down, 20% in 5 years.
These data come from Police Scotland management information to provide an indication of current trends in suspected drug deaths in Scotland as opposed to those data from the National Records of Scotland based on the presence of drugs in the blood of the deceased.
How does this compare with the NRS data?
There was a 12% increase from 2022 to 2023, just as we see in the suspected deaths above, but that followed reductions in each of the two previous years after nearly three decades of climbing figures. There is every reason to expect the NRS data will reveal a further fall for 2024 when they report in 2025.
What does this have to do with English County Lines drug gangs?
See:
Finally, can the data for England and Wales suggesting lower rates there be trusted?
No.
See:
Sources:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/suspected-drug-deaths-scotland-july-september-2024/documents/
https://publichealthscotland.scot/news/2024/august/drug-related-deaths-increase-in-scotland/
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Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
I take it this won’t be hogging the Scottish news 24/7 for the next two weeks.
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These figures are encouraging considering the fact that English County Lines gangs have been increasingly active in Scotland during this period . ( …even if they appear invisible to BBC Scotland’s editorial staff !)
However do not expect any optimistic sounds from the Media . Drug deaths in Scotland are uniquely the fault of the Government at Holyrood and mitigating factors , such as Westminster refusing to devolve powers to attack the issue at source ,are ignored . It’s all the fault of that Essenpeee !
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Good news , long may it continue.
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Do you think Anus and Jakey will be saying that this is all the Scottish Government’s fault?
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