The Norstat poll for the Sunday Times on 6 December 2024, on a future second referendum on Scottish independence had:
Yes 54%
No 46%
A healthy 8% lead, well up on a tie five days earlier and a 3% lead for No on 22 August.
However, as in most polls on this question, the pollsters had adjusted, ‘weighted’, their sample to reflect several factors such as gender, age, socio-economic class, country of birth and voting patterns in the 2024 general election, the 2021 Scottish election, the 2016 EU referendum and the 2014 independence referendum.
This weighting is designed entirely legitimately, for all but the earlier voting patterns, to make the sample more accurately representative of the wider population and, as a result more confident in prediction.
Adjustments to match earlier voting patterns are more controversial given the shifting demographics as generations enter and leave the electoral role. Even in the months since the 2024 General Election, opinion shifts as we have seen clearly, have made that voting pattern quickly less than relevant.
Most controversial, is the practice, more then ten years later, with half a million Scots, known to be roughly 70% pro-Yes, entering and a similar amount leaving (dying), the electoral roll, known to be roughly 70% Pro-No, of weighting the sample to make it similar to the vote in the September 2014 referendum.
On this, Norstat adjusted their initial 378 Yes to 259 No sample, turning it round and making it 350 No to 287 Yes.
I’m not competent to say how and to what extent this adjustment affected their resultant 54/46 Yes/No ratio but it’s hard to imagine it did not reduce the Yes lead.
Thoughts?
Source:
https://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20240824.pdf
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Ask Scot Goes Pip. Or Prof Curtice.
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All I can add and it’s second hand, is that the practice of ‘ weighting ‘ to 2014 is unique to Scotland.
Golfnut.
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O/T
MSM Monitor tweeted 10 December:
“BBC Scotland has no template for dealing with the Scottish Labour councillors scandal. Take the Cammy Day story. Examining timelines in such stories is BBC Scotland’s normal practice. Complaints began in 2023. Police became involved months ago. Sarwar denies prior knowledge. The broadcaster forensically scrutinised Michael Matheson’s account when challenged about his iPad expenses. It published key dates. It highlighted what appeared to be inconsistencies. This hasn’t happened with Anas Sarwar. The Scottish Labour leader told the BBC he only became aware of the complaints on Saturday Dec 7th. Yet The Times reported that Scottish Labour was asked for a response on Friday Dec 6th. Moreover, we know that Police Scotland questioned senior officials and politicians at Edinburgh Council after a complaint was lodged on October 22nd. How likely is is that these interviews remained a secret from Scottish Labour hierarchy? BBC Scotland has targeted virtually no resource at this story. It has limited its coverage to hurriedly reporting the most basic of facts. No confronting of any Scottish Labour politician. No interviewing of opposition councillors. No examination of who knew what and when. The story is a hot potato BBC Scotland wants gone as quickly as possible. It has no template or appetite for covering such stories in depth. It doesn’t care about timelines. Anas Sarwar is not a person of interest”
This was the top story on the BBC website on the 6 December and they did state in their headline that he was a “Labour Council leader”. (someone somewhere at BBC Scotland obviously noting how many of us observe that this , as an action, is not ever usually done by them for opposition parties as it is usually reserved only for the SNP).
The actual headline in 6 December stated “Police investigating Labour council leader”.
Today the now updated story on Cammy day is now the 5th story on their Scottish Politics page and on their Edinburgh Fife & East page it is the 7th story in respect to what is a current story on the Edinburgh Labour council leader.
On the 6 December it was the top story on the main Scottish page but now it is not on that page at all.
How long before it is no longer , as an article , on any page of their website ?
This story on their website has now been updated on 9 December with a new headline stating ” Labour council leader quits over alleged messages” yet it is rapidly descending in the articles on both the Scottish Politics page and the Edinburgh Fife & East page. (formerly it was the top story on these pages as from 6 December).
This is the same Edinburgh Labour council that suspended two of it’s Labour councillors for not voting with the Tories.
In 2022 the SNP won the most council seats in Edinburgh but Labour took over as a minority administration supported by the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives.
The BBC’s original story on Cammy Day on their website about him being investigated by the Police failed to note this crucial historical fact and the analysis on the updated story on his resignation by Jamie McIvor stated only that “In Edinburgh, the SNP is the single biggest party but is in opposition. Instead Labour governs as a minority with support from Lib Dem and Conservative councillors”
Nowt about how Labour came to be in charge as a minority administration in a (dirty) deal that was done with the Tories and the Lib Dems to oust the SNP. (not a unique scenario for Labour in Scotland but also not something the media promote to the non politically engaged public)
Remember how long the Michael Mathieson iPad story was on their website, in fact even after he, Mathieson, resigned they still had various articles about him and the iPad story on their website.
Indeed at one point they had more than one story about it as they were so desperate to extend it and over promote it as a #SNPBAD supposed scandal , mainly as the BBC persevered to try to ensure it was seen by the public as a SNP scandal in their (extensive) and biased and overblown coverage of it as a #SNPBAD story.
The rule for the BBC is always that if there is a #BAD story relating to an opposition party , then they, the BBC, will actively seek out #BAD stories that they can connect to the SNP as a party or as the Scottish government, which will then take top place as an article on their Scottish pages of their website for a prolonged period (as in any #SNPBAD articles being constantly updated by them on their website in a process that involves a drip drip drip of additional information that they add onto any #SNPBAD stories to try to sustain them on their website).
Reality of course is always that it is BBC Scotland’s news coverage that is #BAD for Scotland, same BBC Scotland that is currently trying to protect and promote Labour in Scotland (which includes ensuring any #BAD story linked to Labour that they are compelled to relate is then , as a story, only on their website for a short period and never to be revisited as a story or regurgitated as that is only reserved for the SNP in Scotland).
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Agreed – except for one small quibble. This:
They do have a template. In fact, they created the template – and they use it every time there’s anything vaguely related to #SNPBad.
It should, therefore, be impartially applied to all political parties.
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Good point and I think I see what you mean, but I think MSM Monitor meant that they, the BBC, are not usually in a position to target a pro UK party negatively as that is usually reserved , in Scotland, only for the SNP.
Hope I did not misunderstand what you meant with your “quibble” if not I apologise.
I’m not very bright just now especially when the temperature drops.
🙂
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Ah yes, I see what you/MSM Monitor mean. Absolutely nothing to apologise for (of course!)
I’d simply assumed the ‘powers that be’ would have given the churnos credit for enough intelligence/independent thinking/whatever to realise that all they needed to do was rub out the mention of the SNP and substitute Lab. Oops. My bad – as they say in Hollywood High School films!
Of course, they need a template with the party, #XXXBad insinuations etc already written in so they just have to fill in the (apparently unchecked) details.
Silly me…🙃🤭
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Newspapers today focus on Scottish Education being #BAD in relation to what they say is “Teacher numbers fall” and also them focusing upon “truancy” and “class sizes increasing” in Scotland as yet another pro UK media exercise in #SNPBAD.
Why ?
Well it could be because the Scottish government on 10 Decembers revealed that:
“Literacy and numeracy standards reach record high”
“Attainment gap for literacy narrows to lowest level”.
“The proportion of pupils achieving the expected level in literacy and numeracy across primary and secondary schools has reached a new high, officials figures show”.
“For numeracy, a record 80.3% of pupils across P1, P4 and P7 reached expected levels, while S3 also reached a new high of 90.3%. For literacy, achievement is also now at a record high in both primary (74%) and secondary (88.3%)”.
“The attainment gap between young people from the most and least deprived areas meeting standards in literacy has also reached a new low, according to the latest Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence levels 2023-24 (ACEL) statistics”.
This is a classic example of good news on Scottish education being ignored by the media to then see them attempt to divert our attention away from what is clearly a case of #ScottishEducationIsGood to then instead focus upon their news that #ScottishEducationIsBad.
(In the media choosing to ignore this #GOOD news on Scottish education and instead focusing upon #BAD Scottish education stories it exposes them as those who are clearly both corrupt and very much compromised as a pro UK media , whose mission in Scotland , as a so called news media, is mainly to promote that the UK is best for Scotland, while also emphasising that the SNP are not).
What Education story will the opposition parties focus upon and then promote ?
The positive ACEL stats revealed by the Scottish government or the #SNPBAD Education front page headlines in the press ?
Obviously a rhetorical Q as it is well know what the opposition parties will promote while ignoring the mess that exists with education in Wales (with Labour controlling education in Wales as they govern there as the devolved government).
In October 2024 Wales online reported that ” Wales’ continued poor ranking compared with the rest of the UK in international Pisa tests for literacy, numeracy and other skills“
A fact that you will not hear promoted in the press that has infiltrated Scotland with their special brand of biased pro UK propaganda that currently, as a pro UK media, are attempting to protect Labour in Scotland in obscuring how bad they, Labour, govern within Wales (and also are now governing badly in England and in the UK too).
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O/T
Facilities to capture and store carbon emissions from polluting businesses will support 2,000 jobs in the north-east of England, the government has claimed.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said contracts had now been signed for projects on Teesside, with construction expected to start in mid-2025 and a start-up scheduled for 2028.
The government said the funding for two “carbon capture clusters” on Merseyside and Teesside, promised over the next 25 years, would create thousands of jobs, attract private investment and help the UK meet climate goals.
Sir Keir Starmer, who is to visiting the north-west of England with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband to confirm the projects, said the move would “reignite our industrial heartlands” and “kickstart growth”
Meanwhile what of GB Energy HQ where prior to the GE there was a huge fanfare in respect to it, as an HQ, being in Scotland.
Well I hope you are sitting down because in November of this year the Chairman of GB Energy, Juergen Maier, announced that “Up to 300 jobs should be created at GB Energy’s new headquarters in Aberdeen“.
Wow 300 jobs , I am glad Labour said we , Scotland, would be at the “heart of a clean energy future” because had we not been then we could have lost out on up to 300 jobs being created at the HQ of Labour’s GB Energy company.
Though in May 2024 it was reported that Keir Starmer stated that “Labour will bring a “huge number” of skilled jobs to Scotland by basing the HQ of its new energy company there“
In November 2023 Labour stated this:
“Starmer’s energy ambition: How Labour’s British Jobs Bonus will create jobs and boost investment into Scottish and UK energy heartlands”.
“Scotland will power Britain’s clean energy future, Keir Starmer pledges today [Friday], as he announces more detail of Labour’s £2.5bn British Jobs Bonus, part of Labour’s mission to make the UK a clean energy superpower, cutting energy bills and making the UK energy secure”.
“On a visit to Aberdeen to meet with industry and workers, the Labour leader will set out how Labour will drive investment and jobs into historic energy communities across Scotland and the UK, to secure the next generation of high-quality jobs and ensure Scotland is the heart of a clean energy future“.
“Labour will confirm today that key North Sea industries will be eligible for the British Jobs Bonus, with estimates that the initiative could create 29,000 UK jobs by 2050. Labour’s mission to make the UK a clean energy superpower will support up to 50,000 jobs in Scotland by 2030″.
So far , since being elected as the new UK government , Labour have announced in respect to GB Energy the location of the GB Energy HQ in Scotland was to be in Aberdeen.
Then we had it confirmed that the new Chairman of GB Energy would not be based at the GB Energy HQ in Aberdeen but would be based in Manchester (North of England).
Then we also heard that “Facilities to capture and store carbon emissions would support 2,000 jobs in the north-east of England with the government pledging £22bn in funding , where over the next 25 years it would create thousands of jobs.
Keir Starmer said these projects in England would “reignite our industrial heartlands”.
It seems to me that so far England is at the heart of GB Energy’s funding, investment and majority of allocated jobs where even the Chairman of GB Energy is to be based in England and not in, what now seems to be a token gesture, the so called HQ office in Scotland.
This also happened with the former Tory government bypassing Scotland for England in respect to Carbon Capture facilities when in 2021 Scotland has missed out on UK government backing to develop its first carbon capture and storage facility.
It was reported at the time that:
“It seemed like a no-brainer, with the vast depleted oil and gas reservoirs of the northern North Sea offering a perfect home to our waste carbon dioxide”
“Indeed the infrastructure from extracting the gas – the pipelines and subsea kit – is all still there. It just needs putting into reverse”
“And they’ve been working on the plan for years longer than anywhere else since an initial competition for carbon capture and storage by the coalition government was later cancelled”.
So what this should confirm for people in Scotland is that neither the Tories nor Labour will ever put Scotland before England as far as investments and jobs are concerned, but they will always be quick of the mark when it comes to stealing our Scottish resources for the benefit of others within the UK.
I think we all know who within the UK benefits most from being Better Together with Scotland, as all of the the evidence so far makes that patently clear.
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