SNP lead in an increasing trend which casts serious doubt that Sarwar can ever be FM

From Survation today with quite a big, thus more reliable, sample of 3 106, evidence of steadily increasing SNP support and falling support for Labour.

In the most recent 3 polls the average lead was 5% for SNP, in the previous 3 it was 3.66% for the SNP and in the previous 3, before the General Election, it was 1% for Labour.

Looking at individual pollsters, Survation have gone from a 4% Labour lead in June, to a tie in mid-September and in mid-November, a 5% lead for the SNP.

Norstat have gone from a 3% lead for the SNP in August to a dramatic 10% lead at the beginning of November.

Survation have weighted their sample to significantly increase the 2014 No share, from 1074 to 1254 and to reduce the 2014 Yes share from1333 to 1149. This may well have resulted in a smaller SNP lead than is actually there. The other pollsters’ data tables are not available

9 thoughts on “SNP lead in an increasing trend which casts serious doubt that Sarwar can ever be FM

  1. As the older mainly no voting electorate die off, and as the younger mainly yes voting generation come of age, I find it strange that after a decade the polls are only 50/50.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. “I find it strange that after a decade the polls are only 50/50”

      Me too , and I also find it strange that if that was really the case, then why did Michael Gove refuse to release findings on the poll that he commissioned (using money meant for Covid) on support for the Union, even after the courts told them, the Tories, to do it .

      This was after Tommy Sheppard (SNP) my former excellent MP demanded that they, the Tories, release the findings of this poll.

      Polls 50/50, aye my bahookie they are.

      Liked by 3 people

    2. Yes, given the younger people are generally more savvy and aware of the lies being sold them in the media. Something stinks and of course, sh*t sticks, re the SNP baaaaaddd stuff we see on the front pages of the daily liars every day. An uphill task to keep people informed of the facts, thankfully we have Prof John and others online to do that debunking. 🙂

      Like

  2. No, no.

    Polling inhouse of the “Scottish” mejah pundits reveal that Labour are a shoe-in, with Anas nearly as popular in Auld Scotia as Charlie and Camilla. (-15% V -23%)

    If this was “Strictly”, then Anas and Jaikie would be waltzing the glitterball light fantastic, while the Hootsman/Herod/Heil/Supress/Torygraph/Timms/BEEB Journos all roared and flapped their flippers in approval in the Blackpool ballroom.

    Oops, sorry, I MAY have imbibed/inhaled a prohibited substance by accident whilst reading an article by Brian Wilson by the light of a full moon…..so disregard the above….it was simply the ramblings of a lunatic/dope fiend.

    gavinochiltree

    Liked by 5 people

    1. Ha Ha, excellent comment gavinochiltree.

      Aye and that’s why the BBC and other pundits still feel compelled to keep up their constant pressure on the SNP.

      The so called “Shoe-in” I think may end up being a boot up the you know where, that is if people in Scotland decide to vote with their heads and hearts, instead of being bedazzled by all of the supposed wonderful promises Sarwar is making now (same ones he would drop later if he and his party were successful, God forbid).

      Labour promise you everything now, then they break those promises later, if successful in elections, and then they just blame others who were before them, for their breaking the ‘promises’ they formerly made to the public.

      Labour’s slogan is “Change” well someone should Anas Sarwar that “There’s no change, without (actual) change” so if you promote “Change” and do not deliver it then that is called the ‘Status quo” ( something Labour can always get behind and want us in Scotland to do so as well).

      Liked by 3 people

      1. It’s not ‘pressure on the SNP ‘ it’s classic British state propaganda being deployed because however we try to debunk their lies, propaganda works on many people, otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

        Like

  3. Older voters, more of them % and more likely to vote. Younger voters less of them as a % and less likely to vote. Only the over 65’s as a % support the Union. The rest as a majority support the SNP, Independent supporting parties and Independence.

    People who vote for Unionist Parties support Independence. They will not get Independence voting for Unionist Parties. These Parties do not support Independence.

    The last GE Independence supporters vote Labour to get out the Tories. A. Act of desperation? Or foolishness.

    Support for Independence has risen. GE turnout out 60%.

    Independence Ref 86% turnout. One question YES or NO. Scotland supports EU membership.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. In regard to why the Independence polls, if you believe them, are showing support at around 50%, it’s because the Scottish people have been subjected to over three hundred years of brainwashing by the British Establishment. And it continues unabated to this day. In fact, it has increased enormously since 2014, because we came very close to winning the Independence Referendum. Will the majority of our people ever waken up to the fact we are being conned? As Stephen Flynn said n the H.O.C, “It’s a scam”, and that applies to whatever unionist party is in power at Westminster. But, whatever the polls say, they are in effect meaningless, without positive action to achieve Independence. As others have said, lets make the 2026 Scottish General Election a one issue agenda, Independence for Scotland, and if we get a majority, don’t wait for “permission”, hold a Referendum, and I’m confident we will win.

      Liked by 3 people

  4. MSM Monitor Tweeted yesterday:

    “Glenn Campbell told Reporting Scotland viewers tonight that the SNP only reinstated a winter fuel payment because “Scottish Labour had been pushing them” and they were only able to afford it because “the UK Labour Treasury (sic)” gave them more money than they expected. This goes beyond spin. It’s so misleading as to be inappropriate.”

    Indeed , close your eyes and forget that this is Glenn Campbell speaking and you would assume it to be a Labour politician stating this in support of his party.

    Also yesterday , MSM Monitor tweeted a video of another BBC Reporting Political Correspondent ,Kirsten Campbell, saying that “Scottish Labour will seek to take the Credit for forcing the SNP to make this decision”.

    Attached to that video on that tweet , MSM Monitor reminded us of this:

    “Aug 26th – Anas Sarwar opposes any universal winter fuel payment.

    Oct 8th – Anas Sarwar votes against reversing the winter fuel payment cut.

    Nov 6th – John Swinney signals he will reinstate a winter fuel payment.

    Nov 20th – Anas Sarwar U-turns.

    Nov 28th – BBC credits Sarwar”.

    Indeed , the BBC yet again taking the public to be forgetful fools who are oblivious to the above course of events, as if they, the BBC, were credible and honest news providers then they would be reminding us of the historical events leading up to the SNP’s decision on the winter fuel payment next year.

    Instead yet again what we are subjected to is the BBC here once again trying to rewrite political history all to try to benefit Labour while also attempting to put the SNP at a political disadvantage.

    Why give Labour any credit when there is none due, why indeed ?

    The BBC’s news in Scotland true motives are now so transparent with their politically biased reporting that they are producing drivel disguised as news far more than the likes of GB News as far as pure political propaganda and misinformation is concerned.

    BBC Verify sleeping on the job with BBC Reporting Scotland, though I suspect that BBC Verify will never ‘wake up’ to the fake news and propaganda being broadcast in Scotland by their ‘Scottish’ colleagues as BBC Verify too, as part of the BBC, want to see a Pro UK party in charge at Holyrood and the SNP ousted as the Scottish government .

    Scottish news, from a British perspective, that’s the huge problem we have in Scotland.

    Liked by 4 people

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