By Professor John Robertson OBA
David Bol of the Scotsman today has this astonishing headline:
SNP dealt blow as NHS recovery in Scotland lagging behind England
This claim is based on the supposed evidence that performance in NHS Scotland is worsening while in NHS England it’s improving.
Yes, but, but, David, what if performance in Scotland is worsening and is improving in England but the English performance is still worse than the Scottish performance, isn’t it England that’s lagging, until, at least it overtakes Scotland?
Get me?
Objectively, which NHS is lagging?
The facts once more:
First, THREE times as many wait more than 12 hours in England’s A&E departments
NHS England, Type one A&E, for May 2024, 138 770 waiting more than 4 hours and 42 555 waiting more than 12.
59.7% seen within 4 hours.
NHS Scotland, Type ED full A&E, for May 2024, 9 252 waiting more than 4 hours and 1 350 waiting more than 12.
66.7% seen within 4 hours
So:
All things being equal NHS England with 10 times the population might have been expected to have 92 520 waiting more than 4 hours, but had 138 770, 50% more.
about:blank
And 13 500 waiting more than 12 hours but had 42 555, more than THREE times as many.
As for the A&E 4 hour waiting time, NHS Scotland is 11.7% faster.
Sources:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/
Second, Scotland’s cancer waiting times dramatically better than England’s
Today, BBC UK’s Nick Triggle has:
The cancers with longest treatment waits revealed
with the above graph for NHS England data.
I’ve added, where possible, equivalent Scottish data. While skin and prostate/kidney waiting times do seem slightly longer in Scotland, in 5 key areas, including breast, lung and liver cancers, NHS Scotland ‘s performance is dramatically better, saving thousands of lives.
Triggle only mentions Scotland once:
See what he’s done there? Scotland, on that measure alone, seems worse than England because he is careful not to tell us how close the two countries were to the target over that period. See these two graphs:
On the 62-day standard (referral to treatment begins), England has had significantly more than 30% waiting longer (less than 70% seen on time), since late 2021, while Scotland has always had less than 30% waiting (more than 70% seen) in the same period.
On the 31-day standard (decision to treat to treatment begins), England has had nearly 10% waiting longer (90% seen on time), since 2023, while Scotland has always had well under 10%, around 5%, waiting (95% seen on time) in the same period.
Sources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy948p4j5wo
Third, Significant increase in those seen within 18 weeks to remain 14% better than NHS England
From Public Health Scotland, today, we see that 68.1% of patients waiting for treatment, in the quarter ending 30 June 2024, were seen within 18 weeks, up from 65.1% in the previous quarter.1
From the BBC in May 2024 (most recent data), we see reported a figure of 57% for NHS England.2
NHS Scotland is thus performing 14.2% on the 18 week waiting list target.
NHS Wales uses the easier 26 week target but still returns a figure of 57% seen within that time.3
Why does this target matter and matter more perhaps than the one-year target often much politicised to attack NHS Scotland?
It’s kind of obvious. If you have a life-threatening condition you really need to be seen quickly and the 18 week target is designed to ensure that happens. If you have a chronic non-life threatening condition, like arthritis, tough though that may be, a resource-strapped health service cannot always be expected to treat that in the shorter term.
Sources:
- https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/nhs-waiting-times-18-weeks-referral-to-treatment/nhs-waiting-times-18-weeks-referral-to-treatment-quarter-ending-30-june-2024
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-69070207
- https://www.gov.wales/nhs-activity-and-performance-summary-december-2023-and-january-2024-html
Fourth, Nearly 10% more are on the overall NHS waiting list in England than in Scotland
On the 28th May 2024, according to BBC Scotland:
NHS waiting lists in Scotland have reached a record high, the latest figures show. Public Health Scotland recorded more than 690,000 waits for appointments or treatment for non-urgent care as of 31 March.
According to the Health Service Journal, yesterday:
In April the English referral-to-treatment waiting list grew slightly by 34,000 to 7.57 million patient pathways. These are the last figures to be published before the general election, meaning the pre-election waiting list is 358,000 larger than the figures available when prime minister Rishi Sunak said “NHS waiting lists will fall”.
All things being equal, with 690 000 waiting in Scotland, you’d expect 6 900 000 waiting in England but it was actually 7 570 000, or 8.85% higher.
8.85% of the 7 570 000 is 66 945 so nearly 67 000 people in England would not be on the NHS waiting list if the SNP had been in government there for 17 years.
David Bol previous:
Sources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqlly95k5l0o
Enough?
Support Scots Independent, Scotland’s oldest pro-independence newspaper and host of the OBA (Oliver Brown Award) at: https://scotsindependent.scot/FWShop/shop/
The Oliver Brown Award for advancing the cause of Scotland’s self respect, previously awarded to Dr Philippa Whitford, Alex Salmond and Sean Connery: https://scotsindependent.scot/?page_id=116
About Oliver Brown, the first Scottish National Party candidate to save his deposit in a Parliamentary election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Brown_(Scottish_activis
Talking-up Scotland 
It’s the first one,
or maybe the second 🤔
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Many thanks for keeping on top of all this Prof. I remember when ‘The Hootsmon’ was a a credible paper.
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There’s lies, damned lies and msm journalists.
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I suspect the Scotsman is basing its piece on the following:
Warner, M. (2024). NHS recovery in Scotland is lagging behind England’s [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies. Available at: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/nhs-recovery-scotland-lagging-behind-englands (accessed: 27 November 2024).
Lots of stats used in this article. The focus is on comparisons of rates of post-pandemic recovery by NHS Scotland relative to that by NHS England.
No significance is given to absolute performance and its impact on patients – only on comparative rates of performance change.
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IFS report is very biased also. Makes out recovery in Scotland is slower than England. For metrics where Scotland is showing faster recovery it says Scotlands figures are “almost the same”. Then at the end goes on to state that as measurements are taken differently in each NHS it’s very difficult to compare. No mention in the article of Wales or NI. Were suffering an absolute onslaught of propaganda at the moment.
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Breaking news++++++++Bols talks balls in a gutter rag that used to be a newspaper+++++++++nothing to see, move on people++++++++move on+++++
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gavinochiltree
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I would say he is both, plus a few others as well.
Nice jammies right enough.
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“Yes, but, but, David, what if performance in Scotland is worsening and is improving in England but the English performance is still worse than the Scottish performance, isn’t it England that’s lagging, until, at least it overtakes Scotland?”
Brilliant! 👏
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I wonder what S.N.H.S staff think about the propaganda churned out on a daily basis by a corrupt M.S.M. On a personal note, I have a close relative, diagnosed, after two weeks of tests, with a life threatening illness. The speed of response over these weeks has been nothing short of fantastic, not only with the time factor, but the care and compassion that has been evident through the process. The way forward to treatment has now been decided, and it will begin shortly. Would this have happened in any other country? I very much doubt that that would be the case, so well done to all those involved.
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During a period in, I asked. They just didn’t watch or read the news.
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