I’m just seeing the full data tables from the Norstat/Sunday Times poll on 1 November 2024 which had YES/No tied, so improved from a 3% NO lead on August 22, 2024.

22 August 2024 poll by same sample in brackets below, before death of Alba leader Alex Salmond (12 October) and first Labour budget (30 October).

Westminster (likely voters excluding undecided):

• Con – 15% (12)
• Labour – 23% (32)
• LD – 10% (8)
• SNP – 30% (29)
• Reform – 14% (12)
• Green – 6% (5)
• Alba – 1% (2)

Holyrood Constituency

• Con – 15% (12)
• Labour – 23% 30)
• LD – 10% (8)
• SNP – 33% (33)
• Reform – 11% (9)
• Green – 6% (5)

Holyrood Regional

• Con – 14% (14)
• Labour – 22% (28)
• LD – 9% (7)
• SNP – 29% (28)
• Reform – 11% (9)
• Green – 9% (8)
• Alba – 3% (5)

In the space of around 5 weeks after the last Norstat poll using the same sampling technique, we can see the clear effect of Labour’s early actions in a major collapse in their support in all three tests – Westminster, Holyrood Constituency and Holyrood Regional.

Leaving aside the Westminster prediction for the more imminent Holyrood election figures:

The SNP, though down from 47.7% to 33% in this prediction might do better than that figure suggests as the opposition fragments thanks to Reform, allowing them to come through the gap and win seats even with a much reduced vote.

The Cons have recovered slightly but find Reform hard on their heels and down from 22% in 2021, look like losing quite a few, maybe a quarter of their 31 seats.

Labour look like doing no better than in 2021, keeping 24 seats.

The Alba return in the most important for them, the regional vote, post-Salmond, suggests doubt as to whether they can return any MSPs.

The Green regional vote looks just enough for them to keep their 8 seats.

Sources:

https://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20051124.pdf

https://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20240824.pdf