In the run-up to the July General Election, Labour promised to add 3 000 new officers¹ to the current 240 000 in England and Wales² – a 01.25% increase. This promise was, in part, in response to steadily climbing drug deaths:

The rate of drug-poisoning deaths in 2023 (93.0 deaths per million) was double the rate in 2012 (46.5 deaths per million). The rate has increased every year since 2012.³

Why are drug deaths climbing steadily and even accelerating in England & Wales since around 2017?

The National Crime Agency first reported on County Lines Drug gangs in 2015 and outlined their new and very successful business model:

‘County Lines’ is a national issue involving the use of mobile phone ‘lines’ by groups to extend their drug dealing business into new locations outside of their home areas. A ‘county lines’ enterprise almost always involves exploitation of vulnerable persons; this can involve both children and adults who require safeguarding.⁴

In Scotland, the mortality rate seems significantly higher⁵, though there are serious questions about the way drug deaths are counted across the UK and UK Gov civil servants have suggested that the English data is significantly understated.⁶

County Lines gangs seek new markets along public transport lines, in small towns and rural areas where local dealers can be dominated with threats of extreme violence and a property can be taken over. Using their scale of operations, these gangs can transport and sell more powerful drugs, more cheaply, using couriers as young as 11, to users unused to the low costs and higher strength. Increased drug deaths is a simple and predictable consequence.

These same gangs, entirely from English cities, were first reported in Scottish towns, up the east cast rail lines to places such as Aberdeen, Fraserburgh, Inverness and Wick, around 2019, just as Scotland’s drug deaths had begun to plateau and, in 2021, fall sharply (see NRS graph below).⁷

However, what matters most is the trend, and in Scotland, contrary to England and Wales, is has flattened, dipped sharply then climbed again in the last year though still remaining well below the peak in 2019.

Why did Scotland’s drug deaths begin to fall from 2019?

The answer is complex and, in part, is due to the large older generation of users who began abusing in the 80s, dying out together but, note, this latter phenomenon has not been enough to stem the increase in England.

Contributing to the slowing and then falling have been two Scottish Government responsibilities.

First, NHS Scotland’s drug treatment programmes have been treating more than 90% of referred drug abusers within only 3 weeks an in a median wait time of only seven days since records began in 2021:

Around 24 000 have been treated in this time.⁸

Second, Scotland was the first country in the world to introduce a national naloxone programme, empowering individuals, families, friends and communities to reverse an opiate overdose [the main cause of drug deaths]. Over forty six thousand potentially lifesaving take-home naloxone kits have been supplied between 2011-2012 and 2017-2018.⁹

Why have the Scottish Government’s efforts only resulted in a slow decrease in drug deaths?

County Lines activity across the UK is increasing at around 10% per year.¹⁰ In October 2023, Police Scotland estimated that there were 373 addresses across Scotland being used to deal drugs based on cuckooing of a vulnerable adult by an English gang.¹¹

In February 2024, Assistant Chief Constable Andy Freeburn, executive lead for Organised Crime, Counter Terrorism and Intelligence, said: ‘We estimate we have 55 groups. That’s significantly increased.’ 

Why are police forces in England not closing down County lines gangs and restricting their movements into Scotland?

It’s simple and long-standing:

As of March 2023, there were only 244 police officers per 100,000 people in England and Wales but there were nearly 300 police officers per 100,000 people [25% more] in Scotland.¹³

There are too few police officers in England & Wales [33% fewer than in Scotland] to constrain these gangs, far less to stop them heading north to easy new markets. There is no hard border between England and Scotland that would allow them to be systematically stopped and searched.

To conclude:

The lack of a hard border, increased activity by cross-border gangs and too few police officers in England & Wales is contributing to Scotland’s drug deaths and inhibiting their reduction, despite Scottish Government efforts

Sources:

1. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1rrdzrjz1no
2. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00634/
3. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsrelatedtodrugpoisoninginenglandandwales/2023registrations
4. https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/who-we-are/publications/359-nca-intelligence-assessment-county-lines-gangs-and-safeguarding-2015/file
5. https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/drug-related-deaths/23/drug-related-deaths-23-report.pdf
6. https://analysisfunction.civilservice.gov.uk/blog/comparability-of-drug-related-death-statistics-across-the-united-kingdom/
7. https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/drug-related-deaths/23/drug-related-deaths-23-report.pdf
8. https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/national-drug-and-alcohol-treatment-waiting-times/national-drug-and-alcohol-treatment-waiting-times-1-april-2024-to-30-june-2024/
9. https://www.gov.scot/policies/alcohol-and-drugs/naloxone-provision/
10. https://crimestoppers-uk.org/news-campaigns/news/2024/sep/as-reports-rise-new-campaign-launched-warning-of-county-line-drug-gang-exploitation
11. https://www.scotland.police.uk/what-s-happening/news/2023/october/police-scotland-acts-to-protect-young-people-from-county-lines-drug-dealers-during-week-of-activity/
12. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13041893/Rise-county-lines-gangs-exploiting-vulnerable-Scots.html
13. https://policepromotion.blog/2024/03/07/2024-police-officer-numbers-across-uk-and-beyond/#:~:text=England%20and%20Wales%20have%20a%20ratio%20of,this%20suggest%20a%20more%20efficiently%20run%20organisation?