SNP surge to at least 10% lead over Labour and Reform almost catch Tories in poll distorted by sampling in line with 2014 vote

From Norstat for the Sunday Times on 1 November with 1 013 Scots, +16 for Holyrood and +18 for Westminster, after the Labour UK budget and horribly distorting the sample in favour of Unionist parties in weighting for the 2014 Referendum. Look at the huge adjustment to increase the presence of 2014 No voters and to diminish the presence of 2014 Yes voters.

So for the SNP and Greens this seems certain to be understating their likely share.

For the Holyrood constituency vote, SNP 10% ahead of of a fading Labour with 33%, beginning to push back toward the c40% required for a majority at Reform UK helping to divide the Tory vote.

For the Holyrood, regional vote SNP 7% ahead.

For the Westminster vote in 2029, SNP 7% ahead of Labour and, once more Reform splitting the Tory vote.

Source:

https://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20051124.pdf

6 thoughts on “SNP surge to at least 10% lead over Labour and Reform almost catch Tories in poll distorted by sampling in line with 2014 vote”

  1. Given Labour’s hostility (pre-US election, ref Lammy) to Trump but the latter’s unfathomable victory it will be interesting to see just how much further to the right Starmer will take his party to curry favour and so keep that ‘special relationship ‘ alive. The further right he goes so the SNP and other independence parties will benefit

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    1. What also worries me is how John Swinney threw his weight behind Harris with howls of ‘Interference’ from the Trump campaign. You should not have an opinion on how other countries should vote thinking that you can influence their decision. It’s arrogant and it’s none of our business. We felt exactly the same way when foreign leaders interfered with our referendum in 2014.

      It’s also very stupid considering that, at some point, you are going to have to try and work with these leaders in the future to get trade deals and investments into your economy in the future. People have memories, they remember who was with them and who was against them so it’s important to stay neutral on these issues.I feel John Swinney shot himself in the foot on this occasion.

      As for Starmer, he’s toast. Trump will not forget all the things Starmer has said about him.A small possibility of Starmer saving himself is to sack Lammy immediately for comparing Trump to Hitler, which will happen within the week in order to curry favour with Trump but that will just show his weakness as a leader so he’s already ‘A Loser’ in Trumps eyes.

      I’m disappointed in John Swinney. He’s fallen into the trap that Britain still has some naive belief that it can influence how the world votes, especially with the most powerful country in the world both economically and militarily.

      Jim.

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  2. Yes, always good to see our lead increasing, and hopefully even greater in the future. But I’ll ask again. How closer are we to being an Independent nation once again? The answer is of course, no closer. Despite being a long time member of the S.N.P, it almost seems to me that they are content with the present situation. Of course, the leadership will deny this, but I believe we have missed opportunities to capitalise on our majorities in past elections, where more could have been made of our dominance.

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    1. I agree, I think though that the failure and this includes Alex Salmond has been in not changing the narrative. Turning the English brexit narrative, repeatedly used in parliament, back on westminster that there is no law , neither international or domestic which prevents one signatory to treaty from withdrawing from a Treaty should it wish to do so. The people of Scotland in 2026 should be asked the simple question, permission from the people of Scotland to withdraw from the 1707 ToU, the manifesto should contain every breach of the Treaty and a demand for reparation. The validity of that vote can only be challenged in the international courts.

      Golfnut

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