London Deputy Mayor comes up to repeat urban myth of job flight to south as 12 500 flee north to fairer Scotland in just last year

The Scotsman tells us today:

Exclusive: SNP must narrow Scotland-England income tax gap in Budget, says City of London.

The City of London Corporation said there were ongoing concerns in the financial sector

SNP ministers should act to narrow the income tax gap between Scotland and England when they set out their spending plans later this year, the governing body for London’s financial district has said.

Chris Hayward, policy chairman at the City of London Corporation, said there were ongoing concerns within the financial sector over the tax regime. He is due to meet First Minister John Swinney today.

RUBBISH

The research evidence:

From the Center on Budget and Policy PrioritiesTax-Related Migration Is Grossly Exaggerated: a Research Preview, 2023

Most people in the U.S. plant roots in the places they live, and it takes a lot to uproot and move across state lines. Only about 1.5 percent of people make interstate moves in any given year. For those who do move, what attracts them to one state over another? For some it’s a job opportunity. For others it’s family, housing, or even better weather. One factor that comes up rarely, if ever, is taxes.

That doesn’t stop anti-tax advocates from claiming that proposals to raise state revenues will drive people, especially high-income people, away. They paint a picture of doctors, engineers, and other highly skilled and sought-after workers leaving the state en masse. They also cite the corollary, that lowering taxes will attract meaningful numbers of people to the state. These tax flight claims are dire — and wrong — and too many policymakers find them persuasive.1

I know, US research but from a similar culture, political and economic system. It is very easy to move from one US state to another but folk just don’t.

The facts on the ground in Scotland:

Thousands more workers moved to Scotland than left since the nation became the highest taxed part of the UK, research by HMRC has found.

The study found there was “no evidence of changes in labour market participation” following tax rises in 2017 that saw Scotland begin to diverge from the rest of the union.

HMRC found that in the 2021-22 tax year, Scotland benefited from a £200m surplus in taxable income from Brits from the rest of the UK.2, 3

More people move to Scotland each year from other parts of the UK than leave, averaging around 9,000 people per year over the last decade. This figure rose to 12,500 people in the most recent year. The report shows that more people from other parts of the UK moved to Edinburgh than any other place in Scotland.4

Sources:

  1. https://www.cbpp.org/blog/tax-related-migration-is-grossly-exaggerated-a-research-preview
  2. https://news.stv.tv/scotland/more-workers-moving-to-scotland-from-uk-than-leaving-after-snp-tax-rises-hmrc-finds
  3. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/labour-market-participation-and-intra-uk-migration-of-taxpayers
  4. https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2024/increase-in-net-migration#:~:text=%E2%80%9CToday’s%20report%20shows%20that%20net,%2D2011%20and%20mid%2D2021.&text=The%20full%20report%20is%20available,studying%20at%20universities%20in%20Scotland.

7 thoughts on “London Deputy Mayor comes up to repeat urban myth of job flight to south as 12 500 flee north to fairer Scotland in just last year

  1. ”The City of London ” concerned about the income-tax gap between Scotland and England ?

    All those Russian oligarchs with their enormous portfolios of ill-gotten gains are considering giving up their £50m mansions in Knightsbridge to buy a pied-a-terre in Corstorphine , and thousands of Nom-Doms from Kensington are queueing up to move to Bearsden .

    Aye, right !

    Liked by 1 person

    1. All – go and watch a 60m documentary on Nitflex called ‘The Spiders Web’ to see what a disgusting entity the City of London corp is and how its tentacles stretch across the world, driven by a closed shop of spivs and public schoolboy placemen. Remember 1990s Labour PFI? (about to be repeated). Where did the money come from? Find out here.

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  2. So the article on “London Deputy Mayor comes up to repeat urban myth of job flight to south as 12 500 flee north to fairer Scotland in just last year”

    Just shows how far their interference extends that someone from London (a city) assumes they have the right to dictate best practice on Tax for Scotland (a country).

    Chris Hayward tweeted that he was in Edinburgh yesterday, and was also going to Dundee too, as part of an agreement with the Scottish government where he was up here to “meet with colleagues in the financial and professional services sector and wanting to strengthen the partnership which the Lord Mayor of the City of London and he signed with the Scottish government and the City of London earlier this year”

    (Does that include, as part of that partnership, him Chris Hayward , critiquing the Scottish government. If so then that was an own goal by the Scottish government).

    The other day some newspapers in England were speculating that the wealthy would flee Britain (as in not just flee England but Britain) if Rachael Reeves “launched a tax raid on the wealthy”.

    So let’s get this straight.

    According to someone who says that they speak for businesses in Scotland(who assume that their appointed role in a city in England then, as a role, extends all the way up to Scotland) promotes that a supposed higher tax system in Scotland compared to England means that we in Scotland will see a mass exodus from Scotland to England.

    However what is now unfortunate for that argument by Chris Hayward is that now some English newspapers are saying that if Labour, as the UK government “launch a tax raid on the wealthy” then they, the higher tax earners, will flee (not just England) but the whole of Britain.

    So not much stability for high tax earners then that they should supposdley have to move from Scotland to England to then be compelled to completely move somewhere else outside Britain if indeed the UK government changes (increases) their taxes.

    (Note how the English media refer to the wealthier people impacted by Labour perhaps “launching a tax raid” on them will result in them moving out of Britain as in the whole of Britain and not just moving out of England – so does nothing impact England then , as a consequence , on any actions taken by any UK government -seems it does not).

    Liked by 1 person

  3. The Facebook bots didn’t like this – after posting it, they removed the post claiming that I had only posted it in an attempt to get likes.

    Makes me wonder why they have a like button if they object to people using it.🤔

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Obviously namorrodor, it was not to their ‘liking’.

      Seems, as a position, a rinse and repeat action by them on any subject that promotes truth and facts , as in any situation or issue , unfairly connected to only being the fault and responsibility of either Scotland or the Scottish government.

      That is removing only those posts that expose who and what is really to blame for the vast majority of most problems within Scotland.

      While simultanously not “removing” posts , as in not seeing a similar problem in, (also known as ignoring) the posts of those others who always seek to blame and label both the Scottish government and also Scotland as being #BAD and #SH*TE via their posts on Facebook.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Touching to know the City of London cares so much about Scotland it is prepared to send an envoy to deepest darkest Dundee.

    But why bother ? The taxation of wealth is reserved to Westminster. Even after Gordon Brown’s ‘Devo Max’ promise, the Smith Commission, and the Scotland Act 2016, only two out of the eleven suggested taxes were devolved: Income Tax and Air Passenger Duty. Brown vetoed the lot.

    Further protection of wealth was effected by holding back Revenue Scotland’s taxation of unearned income tax – interest on savings and dividends.

    Besides which, Kate Forbes, Economy Minster, is already on side, warning in August that the middle classes could flee Scotland if progressive taxation continued. Having signed off on the tax free ports legislation her nuancing today carries little weight.

    As I remember in 1997, 75% of people endorsed the creation of a Scottish Parliament because they wanted to live in a fairer, more civilised country. Trickle down wealth died with Reagan and buried by Truss. Let’s build a real border and get out of the clutches of international capital’s favourite laundrette.

    Like

  5. Scottish pop has only increased since Devolution 2000. 5.4million. It was 5million since1900 and before. Clearances. People migrating because of higher unemployment. 40million diaporia. In US, Australia, NZ, Canada etc.

    Thatcher had unemployment in Scotland at 15%. Inflation was 15%. Interest rates 17%. Thatcher took all the Oil revenues and cut the Block Grant. Shut down all the manufacturing facilities.

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