By Professor John Robertson:
Once again, thanks to Dottie for sharing this with me.
The often unreliable Ferret, so much less trustworthy than the English Canary factchecker, has this today:
John Swinney defended the Scottish Government’s record on justice during first minister’s questions (FMQs) on October 26, claiming crime was at an all-time low. During questioning from Douglas Ross, appearing at his last FMQs as leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Swinney said he must “put on the record” that “levels of crime in Scotland are currently at 40-year lows”.
| Ferret Fact Service looked at this claim and found it Mostly False. |
The Ferret base their assessment on three things.
First, there’s been a recent increase in crimes recorded by police, only in the last two years, of around 3%. Any statistician aged 14 will tell you that you need to look at data over at least 5 years to talk about a trend and that percentage changes at this level are not statistically significant, thus meaningless.
Here’s the Ferret’s own graph:
So, to go along with their pedantry, from the 1991 peak, recorded crime was at a record (he didn’t use that word) 30 not 40-year low in 2021/2022.
Second , he said ‘lows’ not ‘low’, but even then, let us compare the last year with the level, judging by their own graph, in 1984, 40 years ago, lower. In 1974, 50 years ago, lower.
Third, they complain that many crimes are never reported to the police and so figures don’t cover all crimes. True but on this, astonishingly, perhaps not for them, they do not mention the gold standard research by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) at Edinburgh University which clearly reveals a 53% fall in crime since the SNP came to power in 2007/2008:
From the Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: September 2024 published today:
Crime has fallen by 53% since 2008-09. Results from the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) show that around 1 in 10 adults were victims of crime in 2021-22 (10.0%) compared to 1 in 5 in 2008-09 (20.4%). The estimated number of crimes fell by 53% over the same period, and by 18% since 2017-18.
Everybody agrees that many folk do not report crimes to the police but:
The sample used for the SCJS is designed to be representative of all private residential households across Scotland. Interviewers called at each address and then selected one adult (aged 16 or over) at random from the household members for interview. The questionnaire was conducted via face-to-face interviewing, if this was not possible or respondents were not willing to let an interviewer into their home, a telephone or video interview option was available. Interviews were conducted between November 2021 and December 2022. A total of 5,516 interviews were conducted and the achieved response rate was 47.3%. All respondents were asked about incidents experienced in the 12 months prior to the month of interview. An average interview lasted about 40 minutes. The results obtained were weighted to correct for the unequal probability of selection for interview caused by the sample design and for differences in the level of response among groups of individuals.
That’s top-quality research by academic researchers, that you can trust, unlike those RCN, BMA, Ferret and other trade unions who carry out dodgy research with an agenda and get our MSM to headline it in an attempt to undermine the SNP Government.
Talking-up Scotland 
I have subscribed to the Ferret for some years now but on a few occasions I have hesitated to share the information because I didn’t agree with it.
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Still paying them?
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Yes. But only because I’m a nosy auld boot who thinks she might miss something. I doubt if I’ll manage much longer though. Taking a long hard look at my outgoings this year. It’s going to be tough. We are one of the millions who are just a few quid over the limit for benefits.1
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Auld boot? NEVER! I think I can speak for all regulars here in regarding you more of a high end Merlet Cholet strappy oozing elegance and sophistication.
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ooooooooer thank you from this auld boot
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“…during first minister’s questions on October 26…”
Is this a glimpse into the future – or is it from last year?
Or have I been asleep for around a month?
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It’s not a typo from John for sure, from the horse’s arse the Futrut, ” John Swinney defended the Scottish Government’s record on justice during first minister’s questions (FMQs) on October 26, claiming crime was at an all-time low”…
The Futrut’s conclusion was interesting, I’ve boldened the pivotal points – ” It is misleading to say that levels of crime in Scotland are currently at 40-year lows. While levels of overall recorded crime and the crime rate per 100,000 are lower than 40 years ago, both have increased over the last few years “
FFS….
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The Ferret often provides reports for The Herald, and it is likely that the reports are tailored to suit the editorial stance of the paper – pro-Union, pro-business, Conservative, anti ecology and anti Scottish.
Whether the Ferret writers compose the text or just provide data, I cannot say. Perhaps The Herald’s editorial staff redraft the report to suit the impression they wish to portray.
The ‘not all crimes are reported’ is a ruse similar to the ‘tip of the iceberg’ assertion, which the writer then uses as justification for her/his own, unsubstantiated creative writing. While, ‘not all crimes are being reported’ is true today, it was also true in the past.
At our monthly Community Council meetings the Police provide us with data on the crimes reported in our area. The numbers are pretty steady, month to month, with seasonal fluctuation. On average, 2 crimes are reported every three days. Most are relatively minor, such as vandalism, crimes of violence are few and those reported are almost always ‘domestic’. This is not to lessen the seriousness of domestic violence, particularly to women and children, but to indicate that the media myth of ‘unsafe streets’ is not true. Crimes of dishonesty, such as housebreakings or car thefts, often occur after there has been a release from prison of someone with connections in the area.
Alasdair Macdonald.
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Sadly, it seems that the first question the Ferret now asks, is what is the outcome you want? Then it tailors its methodology to construct that outcome.
Tetley Tea leaves in the bottom of your cup would provide a more reliable answer. Other brands are available.
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Women who co habit do not have equal rights. They have to put in a claim within a year (1/3). It can take years and cost £thousands. There is little legal aid. Women have to stay in unsafe places. Or lose the roof over their heads.
The Police now arrest then charge. Instead of investigating then arrest and charging. On malicious complaint. They used to give a caution for mild misdeamenours. There are 2000 people on remand for over two months. 7000 men in prison. The UK has the highest prison population in the EU. Crime is linked to alcohol and drug abuse.
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