I know, a sub-poll and based on Westminster voting intentions but still reasonable evidence that the Labour tide is already ebbing and may not deliver in the Holyrood context by 2026.
From More in Common, based on polling for 10-12 September 2024, a sub-poll of 120 weighted according to the GE 2024 vote (so not favourable to SNP?):
- Con 23%
- Lab 23%
- LD 6%
- Reform 14%
- Greens 5%
- SNP 26%
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/w50noqnp/mic-first-vi.xlsx
BMG on 29 August had:
- Con 14%
- Lab 31%
- LD 11%
- Reform 10%
- Greens 3%
- SNP 31%
Again, all the usual health warnings for a small sub-poll but the Scottish Cons may recover quicker than their more toxic, crazy even, English cousins and Reform, it seems, do have a constituency in Scotland, like it or not. Also, the Greens current strategy looks wrong.
Talking-up Scotland 
Another 20 months of continual attacks on Scotland by Starmer & his viceroy Murray & the british labour party in Scotland will be fighting wit Reform to avoid coming last in the election.
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the problem i see is i dont know anyone with any confidence in the SNP any more and i struggle with assumption extracted from a uk poll.
who would vote for them when they seem incapable of countering uk statements and are seen arguing to cut school meals!!!
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what party are you going to vote for then or are you just not going to bother?
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I’d list all the policies that the SNP have implemented since taking office, that are mitigating horrendous English government austerity forced onto Scotland and the free tuition free prescriptions new infrastructure public owned trains, public owned water, etc etc, but everyone hear knows it all.
The English government have also taken a wrecking ball to Scotland’s budget in various ways and that is about to get much, much ‘worse’. The Scottish government policies, you know the ones they introduced to start to repair decades and decades, centuries even, of deliberare neglect to Scotland and the people of Scotland while under English rule, are being implemented against massive odds of UK English government financial restrictions
and thieving of Scotland’s vast resources.
Why would you vote for politicians who work for the country next door and for their own financial gain, hoping to plonk their greedy, selfish lying backsides on leather benches in the house of lards, taking massive £s from the public purse while shafting Scotland. Labcons, Tories, and libdems, utterly insane.
Scotland’s finished if the Brit state controlled parties take power at Holyrood in 2026, finished.
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Well said A.H.
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“Also, the Greens current strategy looks wrong.”
Eh? The Greens scored 3.8% in July, didnt get a second place anywhere, and didn’t even contest every seat. In a sub-poll of 120, ONE randomly chosen person is plus/minus 0.83%.
So 5% looks like progress, whereas the SNP are down 4 percentage points … whose “strategy looks wrong”?
Of course a semi-PR election with 16/17 year olds (many of whom will be 14 years of age today) plus all nationalities including all EU citizens will produce different results, so we need to wait for a Holyrood poll before we can see who has the wrong strategy.
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A year and a half to go. Plenty of pensioners likely to vote. Winter fuel allowance cut. Many are not pleased with Unionist parties.
Support for Independence increasing. School meals are not such a big issue. Just delayed. Starving pensioners is more of a problem. They die. Falling life expectancy. Putting a strain on the NHS and other services.
Secondary students can get a part time jobs. Less likely for pensioners. Starving people’s mothers is not a great.policy.
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Sawar. The castrated wee lap dog of Sir Kid Starver of the Londongrad Stazi.
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Tweet from Kate McCann Times radio Political Editor on 12 September.
“NEW: Keir Starmer confirmed to me that there is no impact assessment of removing winter fuel allowance from all pensioners. Pushed on why, he said there is no legal need for one adding: “I know you think there’s a report on my desk but there isn’t one”.
“No legal need for one” ?
Yes but what about the moral need for one ?
George Eaton tweeted yesterday.
“The DWP has just published its Equality Analysis of winter fuel payment cuts (yes, on Friday night). Around 71% of pensioners with a disability and 83% of the over-80s will lose the benefit”
It seems that the “Change” Labour promised is one that is open to interpretation and so far I am interpreting it as only being the type of “Change” that has meant that Labour, as the new UK government, will actually be far worse and far crueller than the Tories were as the UK government.
Labour conned those who voted for them into believing “Change” with them was a “Change” for the better.
Buyers remorse then is reflected in polls after the GE for many .
Where as we on here, and others too, were far far far more discerning and we all knew exactly what we would get if we made the mistake of voting for Labour in the GE and voila Labour has proven us to be right yet again.
Sarwar can hide all he wants and the BBC in Scotland can do their best to protect him but the reality is Labour UK cannot continue to use the same excuse of blaming the previous Tory government for all of the (bad) decisions they make , as the new UK government, all the way up to the 2026 Scottish elections.
However the SNP cannot assume that that alone will save them from Labour in 2026 as they need to “Change” especially in their dealings with the hostile media and opposition parties.
After all it has always been a case of, for the SNP, them being ‘Damned if they do and damned if they don’t’ so why not just be far far more assertive , far far less defensive and take a far far more proactive position to offset the constant political and media opposition they face in respect to independence their, the SNP’s, raison d’etre as a political party.
As independence needs to always be at the forefront for them as a political party and they must now fight every election with independence as main policy.
Look how many MP’s they , the SNP, lost in the recent GE so what then have they, the SNP, got to lose by going for it (big time) as the most prominent factor in every election.
I mean who the Hell really wants Labour as the new government in Scotland in 2026?
Their Britain would then truly be a one party state (a Labour one) and that would mean they, Labour, could do whatever the Hell they liked right up to just before the next GE when, like the Tories, they would then ease off until they won again.
A familiar pattern that we saw with the Tories in power and so a pattern that Scotland needs to try and break (away from ) more so with Labour now in charge.
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So will any voter either even know about ,or if they do , will they then remember that one new Labour in Scotland MP , Brian Leishman, tweeted this on July 2nd of this year. (two days before the UK GE).
“The SNP have done nothing. Only voting @ScottishLabour on July 4th can save the jobs at the Grangemouth refinery”.
Leishman was the Labour candidate (and won) for the newly established Alloa & Grangemouth constituency.
He, Leishman, beat the SNP MP John Nicolson in that constituency.
So was the above tweet then also repeated by him as a “pledge” in his campaign on the doorsteps, at hustings and in his campaign literature in that by “only voting Labour on July 4th can jobs at Grangemouth refinery be saved” ?
If so then once again we are back to the same old same old Labour who only say what they think voters want to hear (yet they, Labour, have no intention of acting on those issues raised by them as being important to voters and so will then be addressed and fixed by Labour).
As after the election if they ,Labour, do indeed win that election.
Well we then see their former pledges that they made in both their party and individual campaign(s) not being fulfilled .
Instead all we get as voters is (lame and weak) excuses and also the (predictable and manipulative) usage of the ‘Blame game’ being applied to deflect blame and attention away from Labour (as them being solely responsible for their own actions taken (or not taken) as a new UK government – and also individually as newly elected MP).
That is then (political) false advertising.
Just like Labour’s slogan “Change” has now proven to be false advertising.
Listen to how we often hear from the media, politicians , Unions and other ‘concerned’ individuals who all note that in respect to Labour (UK government) and the SNP (Scottish government) .
That “Both governments should work together” and “Both governments are equally to blame” which is somewhat reminiscent of what we used to hear or read about, as an argument or statement, when the Tories were the UK government and the SNP was the Scottish government.
So to steal a quote from Theresa May in that what is really happening now under Labour as the new UK government is that “Nothing has Changed“.
Indeed it has NOT.
In fact it is far far worse especially, as per, for Scotland !
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O/T Labour activists knocking on doors this Saturday morning in Ian Murray’s Edinburgh South constituency, I’m told by a (SNP supporting) reliable source that when their conversation with one activist turned to issues around independence the Labour response was (in terms) ‘GERS shows that Scotland couldn’t survive outside the UK’.
So STILL working the ‘too poor’ line!
Curious level of activity apparently in the area. Same source commented that there is an upcoming by election for Edinburgh Council. Voters in the Ward have received c. 4 bits of campaigning literature from the Lib Dem candidate over recent weeks plus had a visit from a Lib Dem canvasser – all for a Council by election!
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