From stewartb

There have been some escoriating assessments of the Tory and Labour manifestos for the upcoming General Election. They include the one below from the establishment-revered Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

When reading the extracts, written from a London/England-centric UK perspective, reflect on just how ‘distant’ – how lacking in effective agency — Scotland’s electorate and government are in all of this! The IFS is essentially arguing that major fixes are required for a failing UK state but that the two main parties are in denial for partisan electoral reasons. Within this Union, Scotland’s ability to influence the nature of these fixes will be minor to non-existent. We need to chart our own future and make it in Scotland!

This from Paul Johnson, Director of the IFS on 24 June (my emphasis):

‘Manifestos leave voters guessing over policy on tax and spending, and on future size and shape of state.

‘Debt is at its highest level in more than 60 years. Taxes are at near enough the highest ever level seen in the UK. They have risen more over this parliament than over any other since the second world war. Spending has also risen: the fourth largest increase per year in public spending as a share of national income, and biggest under a Conservative government.

‘Yet public services are visibly struggling. Despite these high tax levels, spending on many public services will likely need to be cut over the next five years if government debt is not to ratchet ever upwards or unless taxes are increased further.’

And: ‘These raw facts are largely ignored by the two main parties in their manifestos. That huge decisions over the size and shape of the state will need to be taken, that those decisions will, in all likelihood, mean either higher taxes or worse public services, you would not guess from reading their prospectuses or listening to their promises. They have singularly failed even to acknowledge some of the most important issues and choices to have faced us for a very long time. As the population ages these choices will become harder, not easier. We cannot wish them away.’

Adding: ‘The “conspiracy of silence” about all of this has been maintained. Regardless of who takes office following the general election, they will – unless they get lucky – soon face a stark choice. Raise taxes by more than they have told us in their manifesto. Or implement cuts to some areas of spending. Or borrow more and be content for debt to rise for longer. That is the trilemma. What will they choose? The manifestos have left us guessing.

‘So in these opening remarks I am simply not going to engage with these so-called “fully costed” manifestos on their own terms. Their proposals on tax, benefits and public service spending would be barely enough to detain us in analysing a modest one-year fiscal event. They certainly don’t answer the big questions facing us over a five-year parliament.’

In his concluding remarks: ‘ … on the big issues over which governments have direct control – on how they will change tax, welfare, public spending – the manifestos of the main parties provide thin gruel indeed. On 4 July we will be voting in a knowledge vacuum.’

Source: https://ifs.org.uk/events/general-election-2024-ifs-manifesto-analysis

So what’s worse? Scotland’s electorate voting in a ‘knowledge vacuum’ or Scotland’s electorate voting for a Union parliament in which their chosen MPs can have little or no influence or impact on the most important policy decisions? How bad is it when Scotland experiences BOTH?