Nearly a third more likely to vote SNP after Greens split and hardly any less likely

I know, this is not a credible sample upon which to base any confident conclusions but it’s still, in its limited way, interesting as it reinforces my gut feelings and those of everyone I’ve spoken to today.

First off, I have a lot of respect for the Greens, particularly Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. I agree with many Green policies, often to the left of the SNP, with me, on social and economic affairs, and I was in favour of the power sharing, but the media have exploited the fault lines between the two parties and the at times naive optimism of the Greens, to appreciable effect, given recent polls.

Nearly 11 000 follow Talking-up Scotland on twitter and, I suspect, nearly 100% of them support independence. I’ve no idea how many are SNP supporters, former SNP supporters of Green supporters, and only just over 300 could even be bothered to respond.

That so few bothered suggests to me that the 61.6% who were unchanged in their intentions to vote for the SNP may be an under-estimate.

That 32.4% say they are now more likely to vote SNP and that a only tiny 3.9% say they are less so, confirms what I thought the support as a whole, not me personally, feel about this development.

I feel sure Yousaf will have had internal polling evidence to support his decision today and perhaps it looks the same as this wee poll.

5 thoughts on “Nearly a third more likely to vote SNP after Greens split and hardly any less likely

  1. I would have responded but didn’t see it since it is easy to miss things there these days. I am pretty convinced, however the next few days go, that Humza Yousaf made the right decision. He could not afford to look weak or for the SNP to look weak by sitting around for the Greens to withdraw.

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  2. I don’t use twitter so couldn’t respond. But I’m also of the opinion the Greens have not been the most reliable partners or shown 100%commitment to Independence.

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  3. My personal opinion is the Greens over-played their hand by threatening the BHA and consulting the membership over annulling, which would take weeks to conclude, Yousaf bluntly restored certainty with the media already making a meal of it – See James Cook’s latest Scotland headline ” Can Humza Yousaf survive as Scotland’s first minister? “, promoted also on the UK page – As much pretentious twaddle as the Spanish Ambassador’s email, ” Voices were not actually raised but, I was told by someone in the room, the discussion was “pretty robust.” ” – Aye sure ye did James, aye…

    Will it damage SNP support ? Frankly I suspect the opposite, it will reinforce it for reasons other than bruised egos in the Greens… – Most recognise the bottleneck to progressive green policies is London politics and policies – Cut that stranglehold with independence and green politics will flourish as Unionist support support collapses.

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  4. Humza made the bold, and correct decision. Now carry it to its conclusion. Stand down and call a General Election. Make an Independent Scotland the only campaign slogan. Have we got the b**s to carry it through? Time we found out. Or was R.B.Cunninghame Graham correct when he said that it would be the Scots who would deny us Independence. Well, have we?

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  5. I was one of the 61% as I have reached the point where whenever the media gets over excited I double down on my support for the SNP. For what its worth I do feel sorry that the BHA has ended but it just makes me feel that the UK in general struggles to recognise the merits of coalition governments, progressive policies and green initiatives. A more balanced media keen to educate and inform might well explain these to open up debate but instead any hint of progressive achievement has to be hidden and cut from politicians speeches

    Politics is not for the fainthearted and of course other parties are going to try to capitalise on any perceived failing or weakness to boost their own chances. What I don’t understand is how Ross, Sarwar et al think is going to change when roughly half the Scottish electorate wants Scotland to become independent. In a parliament designed to prevent party majorities they just might be able to pull together a coalition government but how will they govern for all Scotland when their UK party leaders are rowing back on policies we in Scotland already have in place?

    Party leaders will come and go and it is much healthier if we don’t invest all our hopes and dreams into a single figure who then becomes an attractive target for the opposition. If Humza comes across as less charismatic than his 2 predecessors this is maybe not a bad thing and leaves room for smaller, wider party achievements to be recognised, the strength of being a team working together towards common goals moving us on from shallow personality politics and silo thinking. I see he has just spoken in Dundee to announce more funding for affordable housing alongside Joe Fitzpatrick which is a clever move because:

    1. it gives publicity to a policy in front of a baying press looking for blood.
    2. it forces the media to report policy statement in their rolling press coverage
    3. he shares the media attention with another SNP MSP in attendance
    4. it shows confidence, business as usual, still working for Scotland

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