Why the latest poll giving a Yes lead is more accurate

Photograph: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images

Polling for elections is inevitably subjective but a look at sampling often reveals underlying biases.

I’m grateful to Independent Voices (https://t.co/JI3hr4wNKa) for confirming my suspicions.

The most recent Ipsos MORI polls gives yes a 54% to 46% lead.

Independent Voices has already noted that polls that use the 2014 referendum suppress the Yes vote consistently.

https://twitter.com/Celebs4indy/status/1729858736238612814

The recent Ipsos MORI poll bases its sample, in the light of demographic change including more young Yes voters entering the electorate and dying out older No voters, on 402 Yes voters, 370 No voters and 193 new voters.

Contrast this with Savanta for the Scotsman at the end of October which found a No lead of 2% based on a sample of 403 Yes, 410 No and 88 New.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

7 thoughts on “Why the latest poll giving a Yes lead is more accurate

  1. The Scotsman will lead with Ipsos “accused” of bad polling.
    The Herald will have the “nothing like a Dame” analyse the poll.
    BBC North Brit will assert the SNP “claim” a good poll.

    Such is the one-sided culture war in Auld Scotia😤

    Liked by 4 people

  2. 2014 Ipsos put No on 53% and Yes on 47%, compared with a final result of 55% for No and 45% for Yes. This is well within the margin of error for polls of this sample size.

    Like

  3. Wee Lt Bowie wants Scotland to spend £billions on nuke power.
    It will cost a fortune.
    It will take decades to build.
    Scotland will have to pay for expensive nuke electricity while exporting cheap renewables.
    Guess where they want to dump the waste?

    Liked by 4 people

  4. Gives the assertion that unionism is now a minority view in Scotland as well as Ireland some credence.
    Let’s see if that transpires into reality next year.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. OT – I’d posted a comment on WGD yesterday evening, worth updating here –
    On the BBC/Scotland/Politics page –
    The “Police Scotland warns of funding threat to 3,000 jobs” article listed as 2 days old is now over 71 hours old.
    The “Scottish government delays plan to phase out gas boilers” article listed as 21 hours old is now over 54 hours old.
    The lead article “NHS Scotland will remain free at point of need – Michael Matheson”, incorporates part of the iPadgate propaganda they’ve been peddling for the last 3 weeks…
    BBC balance… 🙄

    Liked by 3 people

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