(PA Wire)
By Alasdair Galloway
Regular readers of the Herald Letters Page will be familiar with a letter (often from Peter Russell, but not only him) arguing one of the following
- That a mere 50% +1 is not good enough to change Scotland’s current constitutional arrangements
- If you point out it was good enough for Brexit, unless they are Brexit supporters (Russell isn’t, though is a member of a party committed to “making Brexit work”) the response will be “exactly, we need protection against making the same shambles all over again.
- Either way, there are a range of supermajorities extending all the way to 75% (ie 75% of votes for Yes, and 25% for No – sometimes as a percentage of the electorate, so not voting is a No vote).
All of this for now is moot in Scotland as we cannot even agree there should be a referendum, never mind criteria for it to pass. But this report doesn’t deal with Scotland. It deals with Northern Ireland where there should be a border poll if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland believes “it seems likely to him that a majority of those voting” would vote to reunite Northern Ireland with the rest of Ireland.”
At present that majority would be anything above 50%, but Steve Baker, current Northern Ireland Minister, has argued that “such a vote should need a “super-majority” for it to succeed.” Indeed Baker believes, “a super-majority was necessary for a united Ireland after the UK’s experience with the Brexit referendum”, so a clear parallel with the patter that we have been at the other end of for some time now. Another practical effect, though, would be to push reunification down the road a bit further.
That said, Baker’s boss (Secretary of State for Northern Ireland) Chris Heaton-Harris has claimed Baker’s statement does not signal a change in government policy.
But how much credence can we place on the idea that Baker was speaking on his own initiative? Or was he on a Westminster inspired fishing expedition to see what the reaction would be if a formal proposal like this were made? Northern Ireland is a more complex situation than Scotland. For one thing another sovereign state – Ireland – has an equal interest. In the US, Biden has made clear his strong personal interest in the Good Friday Agreement. Thus a border poll has implications way beyond those for Scotland.
And, it’s clear that reaction to the idea has not been positive. A particularly influential response was by Michael Martin – Tánaiste (Irish deputy prime minister) – who said “You can’t rewrite agreements on the hoof. You can’t say: ‘Well, you need 60% for this or 70% for that’ – referendums are referendums. These are very fundamental constitutional changes that were endorsed by the people of the island, it’s a very important point – we can’t just casually dismiss that.”
SDLP leader Colum Eastwood said there can be no “changing the goalposts” on the level of support needed for a vote on Irish unity to pass.”
Thus, it seems clear that there would be more international influence exercised to hold Westminster to what it agreed in 1998, and in this way set a precedent for Scotland. Good idea to keep your eye on this. They can’t play fast and loose with it as they would with Scotland. The ‘big boys’ are watching.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
What has happened is this YET ANOTHER UNIONIST HACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sent from my iPad
>
LikeLike
I don’t believe that England’s Tories have much interest in NI other than making sure they don’t offend the USA by attempting their time honoured practice of GerryMandering the voting system.
No,this is being aimed at Scotland whom they cannot afford to “lose” and as we know from history,they will stoop at nothing to get the result they want.
LikeLike
First of all, as you indicate, the speech by Mr Baker was in the context of Ireland and indicates the colonialist superiority mindset of the ‘Brits’. They displayed it post Brexit when they arrogantly sought to ignore the Good Friday Agreement, and the GFA is being shunted aside by Mr Baker. Of course, as you indicate, there is another sovereign state, Ireland, involved and since the US brokered the GFA, it is unlikely they will countenance change.
It should be pointed out, that ‘Sir’ Keir Starmer, aka Mr Flip-flop, has shown equally colonialist British imperial jingoism, when he said that in the event of a border poll Labour would campaign against reunification. This indicates ignorance of the GFA provisions regarding the poll which would be by residents in the north and in the Republic, I.e. an all-Ireland poll. And, in any case, Labour is an irrelevance in Northern Ireland since it does not put up candidates there and it’s ‘sister’ party, the SDLP, is pro reunification.
I think you are right to suggest that the ‘super majority’ gerrymander is aimed at Scotland (and, probably, Wales, too). It is Scottish oil and gas and renewables that underpins Sterling and is essential for financial confidence in the pound. It is also Scottish renewables which will form the core of Labour’s colonialist asset stripping British Energy. In addition, most of the UK territorial waters are Scottish. If Ireland reunites and Scotland becomes independent, there will be not many waves for Britannia to rule.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Its even worse than that. Get a map of the North Atlantic, and you’ll see that there isnt much of that, all the way from the coast of Norway to the coast of Iceland , all the way south to the north of Northern Ireland that isnt Norwegian, or (sovereign) Scotland, or (reunited) Ireland. Strategically this is very important, given the regular use by the Russian navy.
LikeLike
They are not believers in democracy. It is that simple.
LikeLiked by 1 person