From Alasdair Galloway

Another thought

Tonight on Question Time from Bradford, the point was made by an, I would guess Muslim, member of the audience that the Labour Party was in “meltdown” (I think was the word used). Evidence for this is all around us.

Open Democracy (link below) reports this morning that over 250 Muslim Labour councillors have demanded Keir Starmer call for a ceasefire in Gaza, joining dozens of MPs in doing so.

A letter from the Labour Muslim Network reads: “As Labour councillors elected to serve our constituents, the message we have been hearing repeatedly over the past 2 weeks is simple, people just want an end to the bloodshed and the loss of innocent life.

“Therefore, as Labour Party councillors, as members, and as members of the Muslim community we urge the Labour Party to urgently adopt a position of calling for an immediate ceasefire.”

•  “Over 250 Muslim Labour councillors have demanded Keir Starmer call for a ceasefire in Gaza, joining dozens of MPs in doing so.

A letter from the Labour Muslim Network reads: “As Labour councillors elected to serve our constituents, the message we have been hearing repeatedly over the past 2 weeks is simple, people just want an end to the bloodshed and the loss of innocent life.

“Therefore, as Labour Party councillors, as members, and as members of the Muslim community we urge the Labour Party to urgently adopt a position of calling for an immediate ceasefire.”

• Meantime in the House of Commons, an early day motion calling for the government to “use its influence to help protect civilians, to ensure adherence to international humanitarian law and to guarantee civilians have access to critical life-saving humanitarian support” has been backed by 95 MPs, including 39 from Labour. Imran Hussain, a shadow levelling up minister, today became the first Labour frontbencher to sign the motion.
• 25 Labour councillors resigned over the party leadership’s response to the Israel-Palestine conflict. One of these cost Labour its overall control in Oxford.
• In the community, “huge snapshot survey was also published today that suggests the Labour Party could see a collapse of the Muslim vote at the next general election.

Research group Muslim Census aimed to gauge Muslim voters’ sentiments on British politicians’ response to the ongoing conflict in the survey, which launched on October 17 and has received more than 30,000 responses.

The survey, shared across social media, asked respondents who they voted for in 2019 and who they would vote for if there were an election tomorrow. Some 71% of people said they voted for Labour three years ago – but just 4.9% said they would do so now.”

The cause of this, of course, is the war between Hamas and Israel. Starmer has spent a good amount of his time as leader “rooting out anti-Semitism”, which makes criticism of the Israeli government more difficult, as it is not unknown to be labelled antisemitic for criticising the Israeli government . Of course in any country with the conceit to describe itself as civilized, anti-Semitism is not acceptable. But, neither is Islamophobia, and the current war makes it impossible to get away with trying to ignore this.

The limit to how far Starmer has moved is to talk of a “temporary pause in hostilities” even if they wont speak of a “temporary cease fire”, but this hasn’t saved Starmer from a very uncomfortable time. He’s been described as Mr Flip Flop for his constant clarifications – or changes in mind which would have the advantage of being more transparent. As Richard Walker writes in today’s National,

“What I can see is a party furiously ditching what’s left of its principles for fear of alienating the centre-right, which is currently fleeing the numpties in Rishi Sunak’s inner sanctum as if they have the new strain of Covid currently doing the rounds. Keir Starmer is afraid to adopt any policies at all.” https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23882648.richard-walker-time-bust-two-labour-snp-narratives/

And, of course, tragic as it is for people in the Middle East, and Gaza and Israel in particular, this situation seems unlikely to go away any time soon. How many Shadow Ministers? How many local Party officials? How many community leaders? How do you disguise the chaos caused in the party by an issue that should have been addressed long ago.

Indeed, the impossible seems to have been the result. As Walker again reports, “Starmer, despite later attempts to deny it, clearly told an interviewer on LBC that Israel has the right to withhold power and water from Gaza. Sarwar considers it a breach of international law to do so.”

Who’d have thunk it? But Sarwar’s position is the consequence of three factors he can’t really ignore:

1. Scotland was one of the first parts of UK Labour to come out against Starmer’s policy
2. Humza Yousaf holds the moral high ground on this matter, and to contradict him could be disastrous
3. Sarwar himself is of course a Muslim, and it is this community which is his bedrock.

The Conservatives “own” supporting Israel. Labour have spent years trying to get to the same position and did seem to be doing this. Though not necessarily convincingly, as a constituency within the Labour Party, most of which would condemn anti-Semitism, but is in difficulty when faced with a situation where Israel itself is acting contrary to international law.

So the question is, taking into account the self-harm that the Labour Party is doing to itself with resignations, what will be the reaction of the  wider UK electorate? How will this feed through to voting intentions for both parties?

Can the Tories win back some of their vote by being the strongest defenders of Israel among UK parties, or at least stronger than Labour? Or, if nothing else, less conflicted?

What will the effect be on Labour? Voters prefer to vote for parties which are clear about their philosophy, policies and proposals for how they will act. The electorate want to know what to expect if they elect them. Had there been no war, the Labour Party would probably be fine with this as the work to address anti-Semitism was thorough. The problem is that the war has undermined this uneasy surface consensus. If Israel goes into Gaza, and the fighting is street by street, house by house, how will the TV pictures of this influence support for Labour (even if only to encourage people to stay home rather than come out to vote)?

Will this make the difference between a massacre of the guilty (the very worst polls suggest fewer than 200 Tory MPs) and something less severe? Might the disruption in the iron discipline that Starmer has imposed on Labour over the last few years, begin to unravel and a more fractious – and thus less electable – Labour Party to emerge? The circle the Labour Party has to square is that it Labour’s message to voters is this: “There isn’t too much wrong with what the Tories have actually done. It’s just the Tories themselves we need to change. Rishi Sunak is too rich. James Cleverly is too pompous. Suella Braverman is too stark-raving bonkers. Vote Labour and we get rid of that lot but keep all that stuff you obviously love. Like Brexit. Like the rape clause. Like heartless immigration restrictions.”is simultaneously home to the Jewish Labour Movement and the Labour Muslim Network. This has been avoided up to now – some might say using in an overly authoritarian manner – but now it has all burst out.

This is particularly important given that the media will exploit even the smallest of differences. To address their current differences it would be hard to avoid this being described as a defeat for Starmer. But the music hasn’t stopped – maybe the fat lady is only warming up. BUT this does represent a challenge to Starmer who has presented a Blairite image set against a party clear about what it wants to do/ achieve. As Richard Walker notes, that isn’t much

“Labour’s message to voters is this: “There isn’t too much wrong with what the Tories have actually done. It’s just the Tories themselves we need to change. Rishi Sunak is too rich. James Cleverly is too pompous. Suella Braverman is too stark-raving bonkers. Vote Labour and we get rid of that lot but keep all that stuff you obviously love. Like Brexit. Like the rape clause. Like heartless immigration restrictions.”

But the party image in the scenery is beginning to look like a job lot from Crossroads. Can Starmer stop the rot? If not, how far will it spread? And what will it mean in about a year’s time when we all go to vote?

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/labour-muslim-vote-survey-250-councillors-letter-gaza-israel-palestine/?utm_source=oD%20Daily%20SEGMENT&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Muslim%20councillors%20demand%20Starmer%20call%20for%20ceasefire%20in%20Gaza&_kx=R5re6B-B8Iyurb-kfLrsK3zPT8NS5tD81WaexBwpMXcGs4V3CxMmH-P7J_jOJAIw.YjCYwm