Sometimes I wish I was teaching about percentages to 11 year-olds again. We could look at these by-election results and the media coverage and have a good laugh at adults.
In Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Labour claimed a ‘seismic’ win and the media let them do it despite the turnout collapsing and their vote having actually fallen. That the SNP vote had not turned out, foolishly I’d say, in their own protest against a ‘crisis’ wholly of the media’s construction, pretty much explains what happened – a percentage swing in a reduced turnout where your vote actually falls means nothing.
Today, above, see the ‘earthquake’ percentage swings! Ooooh, what does this mean for the general election next year? Tory wipe-out!!??? Hmmm..
In Tamworth, the Labour vote did go up from 10 908 in 2019 to 11 719, 7.4%. With that increase, they’d still have been far behind in 2019.
In Mid Bedfordshire, the Labour vote in the by-election, 13 872, was DOWN on the 2019 general election, at 14 028, yet again the media report the percentage swing to Labour as if it means something. Think about it. Fewer people vote for you and yet you claim and earthquake victory?
My 11 year-olds would have loved this great real-life example of how numbers can deceive and how a percentage change, on its own, might not mean what it seems to. Some of their parents would then get a headache.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
1 on the Richter Scale.
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Distinct differences in reporting the by-election.
In Scotland it was straight gloating with no report on % voting.
In England there was large scale mitigation over turnout etc.
As the BEEB have just commented when reporting from “Breekin”—“and now back to England”.
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I’m surprised you can thole listening to that channel
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“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles”.—Sun Tzu.
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Very true and apt in this case
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Opposition parties usually do well in by-elections, and often lose the seat again at a GE – so getting less votes ain’t great.
Perhaps we need a new stat for swings that takes account of turnout. After all, if nobody turns out, the swing is zero.
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O/T
I saw something yesterday about some Labour MP calling for Scotland to nationalise it’s buses (because his party sold them off in years gone by but he didn’t tell us that).
Just saw this article..
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2023/10/20/arriva-cayman-islands-rmt/
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Yep folks in England are being conned into believing that Labour will win the next GE. There are no guarantees at all about that, and even if Labour do win in England, their government will impose the same backward destructive cruel policies on their country and on Scotland and even more so will punish Scotland for
daring to reject their right wing party for years now.
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That view would get you put away in the msm, where its almost an article of faith that of course Labour will not just win, but that it will be a massacre of the guilty. But, I agree with you. Two reasons
1. The Labour vote
Mid Beds Taunton Ruglen
2019 14028 10908 18545
2023 13872 11719 17845
change -336 +811 -700
So three by elections, all justifying some ludicrous claims about the future Labour government but none of them a change of more than 811. Much more dramatic has been the decline in the vote for the party of the previous MP – Chris Pincher got a vote of 30k in 2019 and Dorries of almost 39k. The Tory candidates in their erstwhile constituences got 10403 and 12680 respectively.
So the Labour Party vote changed by fractions while the Tory vote collapsed to about 1/3 of what it had been. What has happened?
The dominant explanation assumes that those who stayed home had a similar distribution of votes compared to those who did vote (ie all the parties were affected by voters staying home, which to be fair tends to happen at by elections). Yet the Labour vote is very close to their vote last time out, while the Tory and SNP votes have been decimated. A difficulty with suggesting that it was the Tory/ SNPvote staying home is that they might not do this at a General Election, and undermines thepromise of a Labour government. Therefore, staying home was not just a Tory thing, but affected them all equally. This seems unlikely to me.
The other thing is that a protest vote is easy in a by-election. Take a Tory vote about to cast a vote for Labour. The cost is a Labour MP for a year or so. At the General Election the cost is Labour in Downing Street. Too high a price? Particularly after a few weeks of the msm arguing Labour just cannot be trusted. For that reason I would expect Tories who did vote Labour to revert to type or those who didnt vote to make the effort even if its only to keep Labour away from government.
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“Distinct differences in reporting the by-election”.
Spot on Gavin.
Here in Scotland any by-election ‘win’ for a Pro UK party is then framed as a supposed clear indicator and ‘seismic win’ (where in R H & W by-election some crucial factors are downplayed by our media which TUS states were a low turnout and a fall in their, New New Labour’s, vote) that is supposed to demonstrate how Scots no longer support the SNP and thus want ‘change’ (New New Labour’s election campaign slogan)………
While in England, a seat that is currently held by the Tories ,which they then lose to Labour, is then touted by SOME of the media as it being seen as a overwhelming victory for New New Labour….but as TUS states NOT by a substantial increase via 2019 in their vote but in us seeing a ‘Labour vote FALLING or stagnating’………however tis a ‘win’ where New New Labour and the media promote these two wins as an endorsement, via voters, for New New Labour while the Tories present is as being the ” “biggest problem was Conservative voters staying at home” via Tory party Chairman one Greg hands …….and too also via Tory YES boy Andrew Bowie who conveniently (on behalf of HIS party) suggested that a loss for his party as the UK government in a by-election is occasionally a predictable and unfortunate outcome ……..but also he said not significant enough in relation to any future guaranteed ensuing SAME result unfolding in a future GE
Except of course, for Andrew, if tis a by-election in Scotland , and where if it is a by-election that is lost by the SNP, we then hear that Andrew’s conclusion via HIS party losing a by-election as the UK Government……then conveniently CHANGES when the SNP loses one as the Scottish government, as in he then views it as the opposite being very much the case….. as in it, according to Andrew (and t’others too), clearly reflects that a wipe out is guaranteed for the SNP in any future GE……and one that the media here seems to concur with (also known as them over promoting it as such…..for reasons that are way TOO obvious to bother noting as so clear why they do )….
Let us ALL however not forget which Tories previously held these two TORY seats that New New Labour won in the two By-elections last night….Nadine ‘fangirl of Boris’ Dorries who resigned as an MP but who only FINALLY quit after 12 WEEKS and Chris ‘I am a’ Pincher who resigned as an MP but only “after losing his appeal against a suspension for drunkenly groping two men”…..so really these two seats were, as potential winning seats, very much New New Labour’s for the taking surely !!!
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All MEDIA MUST THING WE AS STUPID AS THEY ARE
ANYONE WITH BASIC EDUCATION CAN CLEARLY SEE VERY VERY FEW PEOPLE TURNED OUT TO VOTE
SO SMALL NUMBERS DO NOT MAKE ‘RUMBLE’ NEVER MIND SEISMIC
Bur an muppet can tell their gullible followers lies
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