Image James Chapelard
The relative lack of full Scottish polls as we approach the by-election day makes it difficult to assess the relative support for the SNP and Labour.
Sub-polls of 200 or so Scots from larger UK polls have obvious limitations as a substitute.
However, a sequence of sub-poll data from the same pollster might offer some insight.
From 2 August to 21 September 2023, YouGov have carried out 6 polls with Scottish subsets of around 200.
On 2 August, they had:
UK Labour 45, Labour in Scotland (LIS) 36 and SNP 38.
On 17 August, they had:
UK Labour 44, Labour in Scotland 30 and SNP 35.
The above suggest a narrowing of the gap with the SNP and LIS not that far behind UK Labour.
On 22 August, they had:
UK Labour 45, Labour in Scotland 26 and SNP 39.
On 30 August, they had:
UK Labour 44, Labour in Scotland 28 and SNP 40.
On 7 September, they had:
UK Labour 44, Labour in Scotland 29 and SNP 38.
On 21 September, they had:
UK Labour 45, Labour in Scotland 24 and SNP 36.
The above suggest a widening of the gap with the SNP, LIS far behind UK Labour and a return to the position we have become used to for years.
What might be behind the strengthening of the SNP support and the fading of the LIS ‘surge?’
- Increasing awareness of what a Starmer government will mean for Scotland and for progressive policies?
- SNP support getting over their concerns about the party and realising Labour offer them nothing.
- TV Coverage of endless English and Welsh Labour MPs bussed into Rutherglen?
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Should we ever trust Lab.
https://www.doubledown.news/watch/2023/september/25/exposed-keir-starmer-liar-murdochs-man-candidate-mi5-peter-oborne
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This by Peter Oborne is a remarkable catalogue of one politician’s ability to erode trust in politics. What makes it so relevant of course is that this politician is now leader of a political party in which Scotland’s voters by majority over decades placed their trust.
I hope that voters in Rutherglen and Hamilton West access the serious critiques of Labour under Starmer’s leadership. Negative views about him and his policy U-turns are widespread in progressive media sources in England nowadays: my concern is that too many voters in Scotland remain poorly informed.
Mr Oborne didn’t include the following in his catalogue. From The BBC News website on 20 January 2020: ‘What does the next Labour leader think about Scotland?’
‘The shadow Brexit secretary told journalists during a visit to the Scottish Parliament on Tuesday that THE SNP WOULD HAVE A MANDATE TO HOLD A SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM if it wins the 2021 Holyrood election. (my emphasis)
‘Sir Keir is currently travelling across the UK “making the case for a radical transfer of power, wealth and opportunity” to local communities, because “people want decisions about them made closer to them”.
The same BBC article tells us this about another candidate for Labour leader back then, Rebecca Long-Bailey: ‘She told BBC Scotland: “You can’t truly view a parliament as independent if it’s within a hierarchy, where Westminster is at the top of the tree and the other parliaments are seen somewhere in the middle – they’re seen as satellites that work for Westminster, which is not what was intended when the Scottish Parliament was created. It was created to determine its own future and to be seen as an entity in its own right.”
‘Mrs Long-Bailey says she is opposed to independence, but says “if the Scottish PARLIAMENT determined it wanted to have another independence referendum it would not be democratically right for us to block that”.
‘She added: “I would not do anything to block that, but I would campaign for the union to remain.”
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I also read that John McDonnell told BBC Scotland’s Sunday Show that Westminster should not block another Independence Referendum if the Scottish parliament votes for one ……strange how when Corbyn was Labour leader his, McDonnell’s, opinion was the exact opposite….indeed he was as dismissive and intolerant of another Indy Ref being ‘allowed’ as others in the Labour party were…..including Corbyn.
One could be forgiven for thinking that this public change of heart by him, McDonnell, is perhaps more a means to P off Starmer than a genuine statement by him…..as he McDonnell is part of a separate faction within Labour who oppose the New New version of the party who have morphed into Tories…..thus if Starmer and others within New New Labour oppose any opportunity for a second Indy Ref happening then McDonnell (and those other Corbynistas) will say the opposite……not for Scotland’s benefit but for their own political reasons……thus his opinion on what he considers is the correct and legitimate path that would lead to another referendum is not required as an opinion as I fear tis not sincere or indeed even HIS business…..why do they always think (assume) that they get to decide how, and when we can have a justified referendum ? …….why, how and when indeed !….as we all know the answer to that !
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Irrespective of the negligence of much the Scottish televised media, as in their failing to highlight the Tory path that Labour HQ are determined to go down , we in Scotland still get to witness the many Starmer two flag speeches that he makes on his ‘vision’ for his UK…..via UK (English) news and too via the Tory supporting Scottish (INO) papers in Scotland……so we can hear his speeches ‘Live’ or witness them via the edited editions in the news ‘not where we are’ but via ‘elsewhere’….
Starmer speeches that are followed by political analysis via the English political correspondents (or rather who are presented as UK political correspondents or WM correspondents) in the English news disguised as UK news……their analysis note Starmer seems to be adopting a political ideology that is very much one that is not dissimilar to that of the Tory party in what they, Labour, intend to maintain many existing tory policies or in some instances go FURTHER than even the Tories have in clamping down on matters that seem to be (via propaganda) issues that voters who voted Brexit seem to be passionate about (as in those things that have no DIRECT impact on them personally).
Thus for more in Scotland perhaps the ‘penny has dropped’ and suddenly they DO begin to realise that in voting for New New Labour it may turn out to be that those whom they assumed was the LESSER of two evils was actually , for Scotland, on par as the same evil when compared to the Tory party…..the branch office of Labour try to delude us in Scotland via what is clearly political gesturing with their pretence that Labour HQ will be a “Fresh start” for us but you do not even have to read the “small print” to know that Labour HQ offer the same as those they seek to replace as the next UK government……
I think realising that the power and policies are solely in the hands of Labour HQ alone and NOT in any way via the branch office is a significant factor in determining where best to place an ‘X’ in the ballot paper in any subsequent election….as tis New New Labour HQ that you are voting for and given their more Tory like transition that surely that cannot be an attractive or desired prospect for ANYONE in Scotland other than those already committed to the cause of their now very much right wing UK.
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*, intend to maintain many existing tory policies
intend to maintain VIA many existing tory policies
*given their more Tory like transition that surely that cannot be an attractive or desired prospect for ANYONE in Scotland
given their more Tory like transition that surely THEN cannot be an attractive or desired prospect for ANYONE in Scotland.
Gremlins ?….. or more likely my idiocy (no need for anyone to comment on which is the case BTW ) LOL
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Wonder if privately educated Sarwar and Baillie will be on the Labour operatives Unison picket lines to support depriving our children’s education.
What has Unison settled for in Tory England?
What has Unison settled for in Labour Wales?
The Radio 4 Today program.
Politics Live on BBC2.
Radio 4 World at One.
All pontificating about Scottish oil assets (Rosebank) yet not one Scot is involved in the discussions.
COLONIALISM is when one country exploits another country economically.
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Apparently Labour do not support the development of Rosebank but if the licence is granted they would not revoke it. Fence-sitting with a vengeance right on the point bit
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“Wonder if privately educated Sarwar and Baillie will be on the Labour operatives Unison picket lines to support depriving our children’s education”
Indeed….as we all know they, SLAB, never miss any ‘political’ opportunity instigated by those within CERTAIN Unions who choose to collaborate with SLAB in their ultimate quest to oust the SNP…..
Industrial disputes via SOME Unions always then sees some SLAB participation in some orchestrated (politically motivated) ‘fight’ for …..justice ????…..though the real FIGHT is the one that sees the injustice of some Union reps, who are in a position of power, using (abusing) that power to promote their preferred political party, SLAB, in such a way that goes against everything that Union is supposed to stand for……where workers become secondary in their fight and where the SNP become their main focus but ONLY as a means to replace them with SLAB….once a Union starts to see their members as pawns in a political game played by them, as a union, with the sole purpose being to promote SLAB and destroy the SNP….. that then becomes game over for their members in ever getting REAL justice and representation by the Union(s) that they are a member of…..and that is what is happening with SOME Unions in Scotland and it is a travesty and one that perhaps some of the members should start realising is happening……Unions FOR the workers NOT for the Labour party surely…..
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Spot on…….you have absolutely nailed it!!!
Workers for workers rights not pawns in the Imperialist game.
Using children to (gain?) political points is the lowest of all lows.
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Earlier today I came across this on the Daily Record’s website written by Paul Hutcheon (time/date stamped as ’04:30, 27 SEP 2023 UPDATED 07:46, 27 SEP 2023’.
Headline: ‘Council chiefs ‘raided’ cash for child abuse victims to fund bigger staff pay offer – EXCLUSIVE: The move has been criticised by a Labour MSP as a sign of Government under-funding of councils.’
Mr Hutcheon’s been busy. This was the headline above an article written him and time/date stamped as 11:59, 27 SEP 2023 UPDATED 15:26, 27 SEP 2023’
Headline: ‘;SNP Government agreed £30m for poorer pupils could fund staff pay offer – New: Councils also used cash earmarked for child abuse survivors to fund the better offer.’
Now the negative framing in both headlines is evident, albeit the earlier one was trying harder! Let’s look at the two articles in turn, first one above first in which we see evidence of Labour Party input: ‘Council chiefs have “raided” £7 million for child abuse victims to bump up their latest pay offer to striking workers.
‘Local authorities were so short of cash they struck a deal with the SNP-led Government to free up the money this year. Labour MSP Monica Lennon said: “It’s really concerning that next year’s funding for Redress Scotland IS BEING RAIDED IN THIS WAY to help settle a staff dispute.’ (my emphasis)
We have to wait until the very last paragraph to read: ‘A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “This decision will have no detrimental impact on the operation of the Redress Scheme. Councils have simply reprofiled their contribution into future years and will still maintain their agreed overall total of £100m, with the Scottish Government ensuring sufficient funding is available in the interim.”
In the second of his articles the journalist abandons ‘raided’ and does without Labour and other opposition parties’ outrage. Mr Hutcheon writes: ‘The SNP-led Government has allowed councils to use £30 million for poorer pupils to fund a better pay offer for striking staff’ and later on ‘ Of the £80m found to finance the offer, £30m came from Pupil Equity Funding (PEF), cash designed to close the poverty-related attainment gap.’
If that isn’t (by implication) SNPbad enough, he also tells us ‘.. we revealed that £7m of the £80m was from a fund for child abuse victims.’ ‘Nothing short of shameful’ is clearly the conclusion the Record is seeking to promote with such negative framing. But for those willing/able to read to the end of the article and navigate Mr Hutcheon’s prose, what do we learn is actually going on?
We learn that a government: (a) which operates within a fixed budget, one already set for 2023-24; (b) which was faced with the need of Local Authorities for financial flexibility in order to negotiate a pay deal with trade unions without themselves making use of their financial reserves; (c) has permitted the Local Authorities to vire funds previously profiled to be spent on specific programmes in FY 2024-25 to help finance a higher pay deal in 2023-24; (d) whilst confirming the funds vired from 2024-25 to the present FY will be replaced next FY by Government, so ensuring no financial detriment to the two programmes Mr Hutcheon refers to.
In his second piece of Mr Hutcheon tells us: ‘In a letter to council chiefs, Deputy First Minister Shona Robison wrote: “I am aware that the Local Government Attainment Grant, or Pupil Equity Fund, is provided on a financial year basis but used across an academic year by schools. Therefore A PORTION OF THE FUNDING PROVIDED FOR ACADEMIC YEAR 2023-24 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE UTILISED UNTIL THE FIRST QUARTER OF FINANCIAL YEAR 2024-25.”
“I will allow councils to bring £30 million of this funding forward and use it to manage pay pressures in 2023-24 on a one off basis, and COMMIT THAT IN RETURN THE PEF ALLOCATION FOR 2024-25 WILL INCREASE BY £30 MILLION TO REBALANCE THIS, therefore ENSURING THAT FUNDING CONTINUES TO BE AVAILABLE AT CURRENTLY PLANNED LEVELS GOING FORWARD WITH NO DETRIMENT TO SCHOOLS.”
And on the £7 million from a fund for child abuse victims: ‘Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth told MSPs: “As I understand it though, councils will be able to profile their planned £7 million contribution to the redress scheme in 2024-25’ and “As such, THE DECISION WILL NOT HAVE A DETRIMENTAL IMPACT ON THE OPERATION OF THE SCHEME.”
Is this what a ‘RAID’ looks like???
I did wonder why Mr Hutcheon wrote two articles on the same matter in such short order. Could it be that even he was professionally embarrassed to have been complicit in aggregating and amplifying Labour Party nonsense on the ‘raid’ that never was? Perhaps, but the Record is still showing the ‘raid’ article on its website!
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New boss , same as the old boss ! Sunak , Starmer – sharing the same political DNA !
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Meanwhile Twitter/x has SLAB members/MP’s locking replies and blocking folk who question there BS. On /r/Scotland the mods are ignoring SLAB bots/trolls to force the view the SNP/greens are not liked, They banned 3 more open SNP/Yes voters from posting while 6 accounts will spam 12+ news blogs without any pushback. Going to be fun seeing Reddit when It a SNP win to see the mods meltdown or once again lie about being soft-unionists.
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