From Redfield and Winton for 2-4 September:
- SNP – 39%
- Con – 16%
- Lab – 30
- SNP lead 9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
The SNP figure is up from 33% and 36% in the previous two R&W polls in early July and early August and the lead over Labour has increased from 3% and 4%.
Labour is down from 32% in the previous poll and static compared to the July poll’s 30%.
Con support is down from 19% and 21%.
Conclusions:
Labour is going nowhere and unlikely to make much progress by 2026 as Yousaf recovers and grows in reputation with range of popular progressive policies. Sarwar has not impressed.
On Westminster, Labour are a current threat but that seems unlikely to consolidate as the reality of what a Starmer regime means for the majority sinks in.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
The cost of living is given as one of the biggest issues on voters minds.
In a BBC Scotland website article today on Nicola Sturgeon speaking in Holyrood in support of the Scottish government’s plans to tackle child poverty, it says annual figures released in March showed almost a quarter (24%) of children in Scotland were living in relative poverty between 2019 and 2022 and that the Scottish government is aiming to cut that figure to 18% by March 2024, and to 10% by 2030.
I recall reading the 24% rate was a median figure and the margin of error was ± 8%, therefore the percentage of children in relative poverty in Scotland could already be as low as 16% or as high as 30%!
Humza Yousaf said the cost of providing the Scottish Child Payment, worth more than £1,000 a year for over 300,000 children, would be more than £400 million.
Where does the figure of 300,000 children come from?
“Scottish Child Payment High Level Statistics to 31 March 2023”
https://www.socialsecurity.gov.scot/reporting/publications/scottish-child-payment-high-level-statistics-to-31-march-2023
“In the 2022/23 financial year, covering April 2022 to March 2023:
160,840 applications were received for Scottish Child Payment. Of these, 121,750 were received since 14 November 2022 – when Scottish Child Payment was extended to eligible families with children aged under 16 [Table 1].
156,270 were processed, of which 87% were authorised, 12% were denied and the remaining 1% were withdrawn [Table 1].
£190.0 million had been paid to clients by 31 March 2023 for Scottish Child Payment, taking the total value issued to clients since the benefit launched on 15 February 2021 to £248.6 million [Table 6].
As of 31 March 2023, it is estimated that 303,000 children aged 0-15 years were actively in receipt of Scottish Child Payment [Table 8].”
It will be sometime after March 2024 before we find out if the Scottish Child Payment succeeds in cutting the median figure for child poverty from 24% and the Scottish government has met its 18% target.
LikeLiked by 1 person