Rutherglen and Hamilton West polls – Labour lead slashed

https://pollingreport.uk/seats/S14000056

From Polling Report on 5 September above, and below, from Electoral Calculus for the same seat on 28 August:

SNP 35.7%

Labour 47.9%

Con 6.9%

LD 2.9%

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?postcode=g733AE

Only 8 days apart but in that time repeated slaps for Scottish Labour from their leaders, on the two child benefit cap, on a wealth tax, on workers rights, on gender reform, and on rent controls.

Also, an increasing awareness that the child benefit and free tuition might be at risk under Labour?

Hopefully, it’s sinking in and it’s now all to fight for.

15 thoughts on “Rutherglen and Hamilton West polls – Labour lead slashed”

  1. “Hopefully, it’s sinking in and it’s now all to fight for”

    Indeed….perhaps some constituents have realised that there is an inconsistency in what the branch office are saying that they, Labour HQ, will do…. in comparison to what HQ are actually intending to do…or rather in some cases ….NOT do….with Labour it’s always worth noting that the devil is always in the detail….or as Gordon Brown likes to state “the small print”……..so what you actually get is not what you actually voted for…..as in what they, the Labour branch office, are promising you will get via Michael Shanks is not actually what you will get if he wins the seat….many of us, in the very distant past, have had our own experience with the Labour party as voters and now we have filed that experience under ‘fool me once’ etc etc

    (ps. Labour Branch office are NOT the ones in charge…Labour HQ are)…..

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  3. I’ve listened to quite a lot of BBC Radio 4 news programmes today. The channel broadcast items in anticipation of the FM’s address to the Holyrood Parliament and later on it had items commenting on the policies set out in his address.

    In each instance, the BBC journalist included a reference to the ongoing police investigation into the SNP’s finances. These references – no longer justifiable as ‘news’ – are being inserted to create a negative frame, to keep suspicion of wrong-doing simmering despite there having been no developments in the investigation in the public domain for months.

    How much longer will Police Scotland and the Crown Office need before bringing this matter to a head – name the wrong-doers, press charges and go to court or alternatively end it with no further action!

    The BBC and others in the media and amongst opposition parties are seeking repeatedly to exploit the communication void and the extreme elapse time associated with the police investigation. It is plain that the absence of a resolution is being used by many to influence our democracy – and of course the matter may well prove to be groundless.

    The US justice system is bringing a former President of the Republic – and a candidate for President again – to various courts on matters of the most serious nature in terms of threats to the very constitution and democracy of the USA. It is doing so on a time scale shorter that the Scottish justice system’s investigation of the spend by a relatively small political party with audited accounts.

    Will we need to wait until after the Rutherglen by-election before learning of the outcome of the police investigation into the SNP or until after the next General Election? And if so, why? I suspect political opponents would be delighted to see this investigation go on and on especially if the BBC gives the matter oxygen in its reports on the Scottish Government and the SNP. This is all getting very – let’s just say – odd!

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    1. Indeed. It’s worth remembering that it’s been reported by the BBC England website itself that the City of London Police, who are the ‘lead’ body for financial fraud, have been criticised for dropping numerous investigations into real frauds to the tune of £3.9M robbed from ordinary people. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60085936

      The ongoing saga at Police Scotland has now cost much more than the alleged amount involved in the as yet unproven claims of a victimless fraud. The seemingly deliberate inertia allows the BBC to continue to misrepresent the issues constantly.

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    2. The hounding of Nicola Sturgeon and others in the SNP is not an investigation, it’s a BritNat state propaganda tactic and it’s costing Scotland a lot of public money to boot! The English establishment have not changed in hundreds of years, with their dirty scheming lying tactics being deployed in order to keep Scotland shackled, so they can continue to scam Scotland out of vast amounts of money, land and resources. It’s quite simple far as I can see.

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  4. The Electoral Calculus calculation is based on polls “from 15 Jul 2023 to 08 Aug 2023, sampling 3,158 people”. It’s not recent polling data at all, and is based on Britain-wide polling. For the most part the polling was before Labour and the SNP launched their by-election campaigns and the Labour disagreements surfaced. It also coincided entirely with school holidays.

    I would not place an undue emphasis on such imprecise data being accurately translated at specific constituency level. A constituency poll after the date was announced would be more useful.

    I think it’s likely Labour will win mind – but that is primarily because the nearer we get to the by-election, the more likely the Tory vote will collapse into tactical voting for the Labour candidate – something that will not be replicated to the same extent in Britain wide polling. The only real issue for me is whether that will be a majority of Tory voters abandoning their party in unionist tactical voting, despite the Labour candidate’s predilection for EU membership, or almost all of them abandoning the Tories.

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  5. There have been no polls about voting intentions in this constituency, so the premise of this item is, shall we say, misleading.
    As a constituent of Rutherglen & Hamilton W, I would say Labour are likely to win by a strong margin on Oct 5. No doubt the “Prof” will blame that on “the media”. Wrongly

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  7. An irrelevant by-election. Low turnout? A waste of time and money. A total hype. The Polls are often wrong, especially in close margins. The Pollster wasting public monies. £Billions Hedge Funds betting on the result. Pollsters getting censored and fined many times for using improper methodology. To try to influence the result.

    A GE soon. Communications sent out.

    Westminster unionists wasting Scottish taxpayers monies, as usual.

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  11. There hasn’t been a constituency poll, so why make this claim. I am a psephologist.
    The Scottish Opinion Poll published today is grim for the SNP:
    From Redford Wilton
    Scotland Westminster VI (2-4 September):

    SNP 35% (-2)
    Labour 35% (+1)
    Conservative 15% (-2)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 4% (+2)
    Reform 2% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 5-6 August

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