From UK polling Report (YouGov) this morning, the above overall results, with the SNP down only one overall.
Based on this poll, the SNP are predicted to win:
- Banff and Buchan (Con, Duguid)
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con, Lamont)
- Dumfries and Galloway (Con, Jack)
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con, Mundell)
- Moray (Con, Ross)
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Con, Bowie)
and to lose:
- Airdrie and Shotts,
- Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
- East Lothian* (Alba, Macaskill)
- Glasgow North East (Anne McLaughlin)
- Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath* (Alba, Hanvey)
- Midlothian
- Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Independent, Ferrier)
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
That will more than do. Hopefully more people will come on board come election day. Independence supporters will go out and vote. A high turnout. The Polls in tight margins are often not accurate.
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Despite the big lead overall across the U.K., except, as always Northern Ireland, Labour have no story to tell. Their lead is due to the corruption and incompetence of the Tories. In Scotland, there is still a lot of antipathy to Labour because of their alliance with the Tories in 2014 and it’s relentlessly oppositionist complaining whine.
The troubles of the SNP are affecting it, because a fair tranche of its voters, especially ex-Labour voters who knew that despite MSPs who are leftish, there is a fairly strong neoliberal section of the SNP. And, of course, there is a whiff of something unsavoury about actions of some within the SNP.
The fact that support for independence is steady and far ahead of the SNP’s support indicates that, despite a preparedness of some to vote Labour in some places, giving a clear indication of action to secure independence could reverse part of the drift.
In any case, Labour in Scotland and England is sooner, rather than later going to have grasp the nettle of greater devolution of powers, more permanent constitutional change and, indeed, electoral reform.
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Get snp in every seat and get rid of every unionist seat in Scotland, when this happens it must kick off to declare independence, they can’t ignore a result like that.
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Please let it come to pass that Boy Bowie gets beat – I’ve had too much of his girning lies and hypocrisy.
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Other interpretations of the same poll data gave the SNP only 27 Westminster seats.
The Scottish sample size of Britain wide polls such as this from YouGov is far too small to be turned into Scottish Westminster seat projections.
We should only take heed of Scotland polls with a sample size of 1,000+, even then a 3% margin of error covers quite a few marginal seats where the result would be very uncertain. MRP polls of 20,000+ where Scotland is around 2,000 sample size mean the translation into seats is a little better (though still based on very old 2011 demographic census data that could be badly wrong). The England projections from Britain wide polls are more sound and therefore picked up by the media, because there are many more ‘safe’ seats that don’t change hands (ever!) and only 2 parties in contestation in the vast majority of remaining seats.
None of that applies in Scotland where we have very few ‘safe’ seats, and a lot of seats where 3 or even 4 parties are in competition that under the vagaries of first past the post are utterly impossible to call this far out from an actual election.
Of course that doesn’t stop us rubbishing unionists who claim that the SNP are finished based on Britain wide polls where the margin of error in Scotland is more like 10-20 percentage points. But let’s not play their selectivity game of only trumpeting polls that seem to be in our favour, please!
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Sorry that should have said:
The England projections from Britain wide polls are more sound and therefore picked up by the media, because the sample sizes are much larger, there are many more ‘safe’ seats that don’t change hands (ever!) and only 2 parties in contestation in the vast majority of remaining seats.
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