GDP ‘deficit’ – rubbish I know but even that fell 27% in just one year under SNP government

The black magic effect of SNP Government
https://fraserofallander.org/gers-2022-the-main-headlines-and-what-does-it-really-tell-us/

Serious economists have long discounted GDP as a useful measure of the health of a country. GDP can rise at the same time as the incomes of 99% of the population falls and services are cut.

In Scotland, but only in Scotland, the GDP deficit widens instantly [above] and revenue plummets as soon as you get an SNP Government, even before they get their feet under the table. It’s magic! Black Magic!

Ireland’s GDP is soaring above every other country, as global corporations use it to funnel their wealth out of Europe, but life for the 99% in Ireland is nowhere as good as most of Northern Europe. Even more casting doubt on the value of a GDP deficit, most of Scotland’s is based on estimates.

Anyhow, UK politicians, based in England or Scotland, love to use GDP to undermine the SNP and the wider cause so, let’s play that game to humour them.

BBC Scotland is headlining the news that it’s ‘falling’ but omitting to tell us what the percentage trend is. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66519559

From the Scottish Government, we see the ‘deficit’ for 2022/2023 was 9% of GDP. https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2022-23/

From the Fraser of Allander Institute, we see that the ‘deficit’ in 2021/2022 was 12.3% down from 22.7% the previous year but that was high Covid-spending year.

So, just looking at the last two years, the deficit fell from 12.3% to 9%, by more than a quarter, 27.4% in one year.

Italy’s deficit in 2022, was 8%.

14 thoughts on “GDP ‘deficit’ – rubbish I know but even that fell 27% in just one year under SNP government”

  1. Westminster can create a deficit for any part of the U.K. because they determine what and when something is included in the calculations and if they have a mind to they can make estimates , those estimates can be calculated in any fashion they choose including or excluding whatever they wish, the famous exclusion of course is Scottish Whisky which they say cannot be included in calculations because although it is and can only be produced in Scotland in order for it to be called Scottish Whisky , Westminster exclude it because it is stored for tax purposes in London before export .
    When you con someone you are scant with truth and so we see this year in year out with Englands report of how Scotlands economy is doing, they love to take our oil and our gas and whisky , gin , fish , electricity but of course they say it’s running out and not worth much , funny that , because we have more than them.
    If they had their own we would be hearing about it all the time.

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  2. Aye tis (one of many pawns they use) in annual event(s) that is yet another thing, that those in opposition to independence, use to weaponise the feasibility of us becoming independent….forgetting that the woes they promote are the ones that exist while we are STILL a part of THEIR UK…..

    Meanwhile the same opposition and their media will ignore any damage to OUR economy brought about by Brexit….oh and too Covid (because apparently Covid and the consequences of it….well that is the ‘GO TO’ excuse that ONLY the Tory UK government can use to CON voters about the current dire state of their UK economy)…….in fact the Tories have a list of ‘Fall guys’ to blame for their damage…not just to the economy but also for the dire state of the public services in England…..but ‘No Quarter’ is EVER given to the Scottish government….as all blame and responsibility must be placed FIRMLY at their door…and their door alone….oh that seems fair….IN A…if you are in opposition to them…kinda way…..

    Is it any wonder our media never SPELL OUT, who as a government, is responsible for RESERVED policies that impact our economy here in Scotland…cannae have that can we….then voters might actually understand WHO, are the REAL culprits that hold us back in Scotland…..nope….ignorance is bliss they, the media, believe….. thus there will always be SOME things, that as information and facts, that will always be held back…..and deemed as ‘Not to be emphasised or even noted’…..

    I mean do some of the public even know what Reserved and Devolved policies exist …sometimes I wonder when I hear some of the comments they make….as some speak as if we , in Scotland, had ALL the powers and money to thrive as if we were an independent country……truth being we CAN do BETTER but ONLY when we are INDEPENDENT….the current STATE we are in STOPS that from happening….simples really.

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  4. Will the Treasury open the books for serious economic perusal?
    Professor John Doyle of Dublin Uni examined the supposed “deficit” Wales enjoys as a part of the UK.
    He was able to get that deficit down for £13.5 billion to £3.6 billion and came to the conclusion that the “deficit” was a Westminster “accounting exercise”.
    What about Scotland? Is GERS an “accounting exercise”?

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    2. In answer to Gavin: GERS is most assuredly not an accounting exercise: it isn’t based on double entry bookkeeping – there’s no Balance Sheet, so debits and credits don’t have to cancel each other out. In other words nothing balances, so “adjustment” of any figure (either plus or minus) can be made and it won’t show up anywhere. I’m not suggesting deliberate falsification by the compilers of GERS since the real problem is the lack of Scotland-specfic data, so the bulk of the numbers in GERS are arrived at by allocations/estimates/guesses of Scotland’s share of a total figure only known at full UK level. It’s typical of the sloppy record-keeping of the UK. You couldnae run a sweetie shop on that basis, but it’s fine for the UK; “it doesn’t matter, we’ll just muddle through just like we always do!”

      In answer to ‘not-my-real-name’s’ question: A number of years ago I did an analysis of GERS based on the probative audit trail of its constituent numbers. It showed that only around 4% of all the content of GERS was supported by provable numbers. The rest was based on estimates/allocation/guesses. In other words if GERS “accounts” were subjected to accepted auditing standards, they’d fail and the auditor would only release them with a searingly critical auditor’s report (which would be a polite translation of “believe these figures at your peril!”). It’s therefore wildly improbable that the Treasury will open the books for serious economic perusal and even if they did, we’d have no means of knowing accurately how much income and expenditure at UK-total level derives from Scotland.

      Even devolved matters can be subject to estimates/allocation/ guesses: VAT is supposedly devolved to Scotland, but there are no Scotland-specific VAT registration numbers issued, so nobody knows how much of (for instance) M&S’s VAT on sales or purchases occurred in Scottish stores: it’s all submitted on a UK-wide report and Scotland’s share is estimated. This gives rise to over-/under-estimates being identified (you might ask how?) in future years and back-dating adjustments (themselves estimates) being made in these future years, thus introducing timing differences into Scottish Government budgets. It’s all a means of obscuring real facts and making it easier for them to cast doubt on planning and estimating for independence.

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      1. @ Coinneach

        Really interesting read also too regarding your comment via your response to me in second paragraph of your post.

        Cheers ..have a nice evening

        🙂

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  5. “Will the Treasury open the books for serious economic perusal” ?

    Well gavinochiltree……there is as much likelihood of that happening as the Pope publicly declaring he is more inclined to follow and support the teachings of the protestant church as opposed to those of the Catholic church….as a NON actual event unfolding…….

    That aside good comment by you….

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  6. £2 Trillion in reparation for westminsters theft of Scotland’s resources is going to create a hell of a deficit for England.

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  7. The EU prevented IR of companies based to evade tax. The companies are being encouraged to pay the tax in the countries when the business is carried out. The EU stopping £Billions of tax evasion. One of the reason for the Tory Brexit so they and their associates could illegally continue to offshore and tax evade. Supported by the Westminster unionist Tory Gov. Hedge funds. Losing £Billions from the economy. Illegally. The Westminster treasury not enforcing the UK tax Laws. Losing Scotland £Billions.

    UK Gov whole accounts 2019/20.EU membership cost £4Billion. Cost Scotland nothing. Only gained £Billions.

    £Billions came back in CAP payments, loans and Grants. Largest nearest market. 400milllion people. Shared Defence costs saving £Billion. The UK losing £Billions,

    70%+ of the electorate want full EU membership. 80%+ among the young. Scotland and NI did not vote for it. Losing £Billions to the economy. Wales who gained £Billions from the EU. Voted for Brexit. Brexit lies. Scotland gained £Billions from EU membership now lost to Tory inadequacy. An absolute scandal.

    £Billions of bungs to NI. To try and keep down the troubles engineered by the Westminster unionist Gov. Illegal Partition in 1922. Ireland could soon vote to reunite.

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  8. The Westminster Gov claims they cannot publish separate accounts. A click on a computer. The accounts can be compared to show up the anomalies. Where does Scotland increased pro rata revenues go. It certainly does not comeback in total.

    Spent on London S/E since 1928. Illegal wars, financial fraud and tax evasion. Totally illegal. Fiddling the figures. The accountancy is illegal in the UK. The illegal wars held in separate accounts. The banking crash not documented in the accounts. Held in separate hidden accounts. Fraud on an international scale. Breaking International Law. Impoverishing the world. The fraud and corruption of the UK Gov. A disaster against humanity. Taking no responsibility.

    In the the wider society the accountants would be put in jail. Absolutely appalling. No credit, debits or balances. Just kept under the counter. Hidden deliberately. A total lack of accountability and Democracy since 1928 and before. Illegal under International Law. Destroying the Scottish (UK) economy. Westminster principal intention. Lack of equality. The UK the most unequal place in the world.

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