This is the kind of post that so angered some at Reddit before my ban there. I was labelled a ‘ghoul’. The Herald’s health correspondent, headlining the above, feels I suspect, justified in alerting the public to a worrying trend.
These are, of course, tragic events but it’s important to put them into perspective.
Here are the figures in graph form for the two sets of data:
There is clearly a very small upward trend in the post neo-natal deaths but not in the childbirth data.
The scale is important too. That ‘spike’ in April 2023 was at 2.8 deaths per 1 000 live births. There had been another almost as high in the autumn of 2020, three years ago.
Notice also, the more recent dips to below the warning line.
In the Herald article for those who read beyond headlines, there is this:
Public Health Scotland (PHS) said there were “no unusual patterns in cause of death” to explain the spike in April, and that there is “no evidence that the increase in infant mortality is due to problems in maternity or neonatal health services”. The investigation was launched automatically when the post-neonatal mortality rate in April hit 2.8 per 1000 live births – slightly above a red line known as the control limit.
A spokesman for the Scottish Government stressed that the stillbirth rate in Scotland has fallen by 35% since 2007 and the “overall trend remains downwards”.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23671522.scotland-baby-deaths-third-mystery-increase-probed
So what might the cause be? The Herald prefers:
Sarah Stock, a professor in maternal and foetal health at Edinburgh University, previously told the Herald that it was “entirely plausible” that short-staffing and pandemic pressures had played a part.
Short staffing? With 50% more midwives and far, far more health visitors than NHS England?
Getting no mention at all, UK Government austerity measures.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
‘Sarah Stock, a professor in maternal and foetal health at Edinburgh University, previously told the Herald that it was “entirely plausible” that short-staffing and pandemic pressures had played a part.’
One wonders WHEN Professor Stock said “entirely plausible” to a Herald journalist and in response to WHAT QUESTION! This is relevant as back in 2022 on a comparable issue a senior, front-line clinician in Scotland offered a rather different view!
On 14 May 2022, The Herald published an article written by the same journalist – Ms McArdle – under the headline ‘ ‘Investigation launched amid second ‘unusual’ spike in neonatal deaths in Scotland’.
Professor Stock is quoted (with my emphasis): “What we do know is that it’s not neonatal Covid – the rates of Covid-19 infection in babies are very low and deaths from Covid are thankfully very, very small, so this isn’t Covid affecting babies.
“We do know that Covid-19 can affect pregnant women, and cause PREGNANCY COMPLICATIONS LIKE EARLY BIRTH, SO THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT AND INVESTIGATE.
“The other thing are the WIDER IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON HEALTHCARE SERVICES and that is something that needs to be thought about as well. Maternity and neonatal services are stretched and continue to feel the effects of Covid on staffing.
“But WE CAN’T FORGET THAT IT MIGHT BE OTHER CAUSES ALTOGETHER, so it’s really important that we investigate.”
It seems from Professor Stock’s remarks in 2022 that multiple different factors could be “entirely plausible”!
The BBC News website also reported on the same issue on 14 May 2022 under this headline: ‘Fresh probe into spike in newborn baby deaths in Scotland’. And it too referred to Professor Stock: ‘.. she said the wider impacts of the pandemic on the NHS, include (sic) on staffing, NEED TO BE CONSIDERED’ – presumably considered alongside multiple other factors known and yet unknown if the investigation is to be comprehensive and thorough?
Interestingly, and unlike The Herald, the BBC also reported the views of a front-line clinician: ‘Steve Turner, a consultant paediatrician at the Royal Aberdeen Children’s Hospital, said deaths within the first four weeks in Scotland and the UK were “relatively uncommon”.
‘He believes the increase would not have been caused by Covid as he has seen dozens of children with the virus who have all been well. Mr Turner also told BBC Scotland IT WAS “HIGHLY UNLIKELY” THAT PANDEMIC-RELATED PRESSURES ON THE NHS WERE RESPONSIBLE. He said parents know to call NHS24 if they are worried about their baby and to attend A&E if they don’t get a ring back.
He added: “I DON’T THINK COVID IS DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY LIKELY TO BE LINKED OR RELATED TO THIS SPIKE.”
So back in 2022, the view of the senior, front-line clinician seems at variance with the academic professor on what is ‘entirely plausible’. Is The Herald, in pursuit of a negative to lay at the door of the Scottish Government, disinterested in a senior clinician’s view and indeed n the wider uncertainties that have been voiced by Professor Stock herself?
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The Herald has now clearly given up any pretence of honest journalism. This one sprung up on my FB memories from two years ago. Shocking manipulation of the truth.
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Never mind smarting over Reddit, a bit of orchestrated “down with this sort of thing..” with a few c…ts thrown in, only serves to demonstrate the danger perceived by the propagandists who demand monopoly of distortion for other purposes.
Yet note the clever framing of the McArdle piece with regard to actual comments in quotation marks, and this priceless observation from the paid-for myopic who is Helen McArdle https://archive.ph/ZhlMp
– “The statistics also reveal that the stillbirth rate in April was the highest since monthly monitoring began, at 6.1 per 1000 births” and “The stillbirth rate in April was 6.1 per 1000 births, compared to a previous peak of 6 per 1000 in July 2020”
– Ehm, so let’s put that shocking nay “Exclusive” change into perspective shall we
since McArdle has no interest in perspective because her earnings depend upon it – The “was the highest since monthly monitoring began” is a lie, there are records going back over a century but may require a degree of journalistic effort, integrity and intelligence which Helen is clearly disinclined to accommodate.
Helen’s desperate construction of an entire article around a 0.1% change per one thousand births since July 2020 ( 1 in 10,000 prospective mothers ) is beyond ridiculous, yet this is what makes her a living
– That’s gotta suck even more than prospective parents encountering ‘stillbirth’, yet there is Helen with a direct quote and a black eye…
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