Four of the only five polls suggesting a YES lead, in 2023, were not weighted by the 9 year-old 2014 demographics.
I’m indebted to Independent Voices @Celebs4indy for explaining to me why they are probably more reliable than all of the others:
I hope readers will agree that my Primary 7 numeracy skills are sufficient for dealing with comparative percentages, line graphs, scatter graphs and my recent fave – funnel web charts of hospital mortality, but judging the reliability of polling methods is beyond me
His extended piece on how polls work is a must read: https://indyvoices.info/lifting-the-lid-on-the-black-box
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Are the ‘NO’ polls still counting the dead ?
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Thanks John, will read share and subscribe to indyvoices. 🙂
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Er no Redfield and Wilton don’t weight to 2014 either and they show a strong no lead.
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Enough to cast the ideas into doubt?
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Yes. The implication of this is that polls which don’t weight to 2014 favour YES, and therefore this is a better method. That is false because Redfield & Wilton don’t weight for 2014 and they have produced five polls in 2023, all of which favour NO.
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Redfield & Wilton apparently always find a higher NO than Yes in their polls. And apparently no one ever commissions them. Unlike other companies.
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And Find Out Now is an online lottery company that uses their lottery players to undertake market research, making their polls much cheaper than other companies. All polling companies have their pros and cons but if you look at the all the polling results in the round (as the Wikipedia article link to does) you get a pretty good idea of where public opinion is.
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