Na h-Eileanan Siar – economic positives are not hard to find!

By TuS Chief Research Officer, stewartb

Candidly, in the absence of an objective, balanced mainstream media, economic, social and environmental progress anywhere in Scotland since 2008 receives precious little news coverage. Even ‘our’ public service broadcaster does little to inform us of positives about Scotland: gaslighting has become more the norm.  And because of this, voters may find it difficult to judge the merits or otherwise of the negatives about the economy of Na h-Eileanan Siar now being proclaimed by some: assertions by loud voices made without media challenge can substitute for evidence!

Relentless negativity is damaging, most especially if unwarranted. However, some seem willing  – and, without media scrutiny, they are able – to risk trashing the status of the islands as attractive places to live, to work, to visit.

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In case you think I’m exaggerating, I came across this statement in a Council report dated March 2023 entitled: ‘Uist Repopulation Action Zone Draft Plan’ (https://www.cne-siar.gov.uk/media/21105/uist_repopulation_action_zone_report_final.pdf )

‘People knew of families who were planning to return to the mainland as they were anxious about “being stuck on the rock”.’  

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Of course, negative messaging may be done for partisan political reasons in advance of a General Election. However, there is a more positive economic story to be told.  The likes of BBC Scotland may not tell it, so it falls to TuS to step up … again!

Economic profile

Comhairle nan Eilean Siar has for a long time published regular ‘Socio-Economic Updates’. What follows provides a selection of facts and figures compiled by the Council to provide context:  these provide a counter-weight to the prevailing negativity in the media.

From Bulletin 45 (October 2022): https://www.cne-siar.gov.uk/media/20277/socio-economic-update-45.pdf )

Population change: very small change (+0.7%) over the 20 year period to 2021 – for perspective, East Lothian had the highest percentage population change in Scotland at +21.5% in Scotland, whilst Inverclyde had the lowest (worst) at -8.9%.

This seems to be the least tractable issue and has been for a very long time. Arguably, this tiny positive change overall following (i) the financial crash in 2008; (ii) an extended period of Westminster-imposed austerity; (iii) Brexit and its impact on freedom of movement; and then (iv) the Covid pandemic is quite an achievement given the circumstances!

Migration: estimated net migration in the 15-19 age group in the Outer Hebrides has decreased from -109 in the year 2010-11 down to -31 in the year 2020-21. ‘This is a positive trend as the Outer Hebrides is estimated to have retained more from that age group’.

Land reform: as of 2021, ’72% of land in the Outer Hebrides is now in community ownership’ – compared to 24% in the Highlands and 4% in the rest of Scotland.

Household income: on Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI), over the decade 2010 to 2020, the Outer Hebrides had the highest percentage positive change in GDHI per head in Scotland at 36.3%, from £14,065 in 2010 to £19,173 in 2020.

Labour market: from data for 2019-21, the highest employment rates  (i.e. a positive) in Scotland were in Midlothian (80.9%); Outer Hebrides (80.5%); East Lothian (79.5%)

• the lowest ‘model based unemployment rates‘ in Scotland were in Shetland (2.5%); Midlothian (2.9%); East Lothian and Outer Hebrides (both 3.0%)
  • the lowest inactivity rates in Scotland were in: Midlothian (17.3%); East Lothian (17.4%), Outer Hebrides (17.6%).

From Bulletin 44 (January 2022): https://www.cne-siar.gov.uk/media/19174/socio-economic-update-44.pdf

Household income: out of the 179 ITL3 (International Territorial Level area classification) subregions in the UK, the Outer Hebrides was the top performing local area with GDHI per head increasing by 7.1% from 2018 to 2019

A ‘fact file’ was published by the Council in August 2021 (https://www.cne-siar.gov.uk/media/18728/l-fact-card-2021.pdf) in which we learn this about the islands:

• ‘Highest % change in Scotland in female life expectancy at birth at 4.1% (2001-2020)’
• ‘2nd highest % change in Scotland in male life expectancy at birth at 9.5% (2001-2020)’
• ‘Business Gateway Start Ups, 2020/21 per 1,000 of the population: Outer Hebrides 2.4; Scotland 1.1’.

Community views

In March 2023, the Council published the final report on the ‘Uist Repopulation Action Zone Draft Plan’ (https://www.cne-siar.gov.uk/media/21105/uist_repopulation_action_zone_report_final.pdf)

In arguing for improved housing provision and infrastructure, the consensus from community feedback included this: ‘Jobs were not seen as a key need as there are many available jobs on Uist’; ‘There was a general view across all the community groups that jobs were not the priority’ and ‘.. there are well paid jobs available on the islands.’

Now that is a remarkably favourable position for a remote island community to find itself in – is it not – despite what one local contributor to the report claimed was ‘an appalling ferry service’!  ‘Jobs were not the priority’ is an odd sign of neglect, an odd sign of crisis!

Housing

Like many rural areas, appropriate housing provision is a challenge. For context, the Council’s economic update of October 2022 (op. cit.) included the following chart:

The same document notes that:

• ‘of all 32 Scottish Local Authorities areas, the Outer Hebrides is estimated to have:
  • the highest % of vacant dwellings at 7.7% (nat avg 3.3%)
  • third highest percentage of long term empty properties at 4.0%, Shetland has the highest at 4.9% (nat avg 1.6%)
  • the second highest % of second homes at 5.7%, Argyll & Bute have the highest at 6.1% (nat avg 0.9%)
  • second highest % of unoccupied exemptions at 3.6%, Orkney highest at 4.0% (nat avg 1.7%).’

The Scottish Government jointly with COSLA has recently (April 2023) begun a consultation on ‘Tax changes for second and empty homes’. (https://www.gov.scot/news/tax-changes-for-second-and-empty-homes/ )

A COSLA spokesperson is quoted: ‘.. we are pleased to be launching this joint consultation, as we work to meet the shared aim of creating the right balance to increase the availability of housing and a taxation system that is fair for the tourism industry. We also welcome the greater fiscal empowerment for councils to reflect local circumstances this would introduce. Any additional funding created by these changes under consultation will enable councils to invest in local needs and support sustainable communities’. (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding these still to be resolved issues, there is substantial investment being made locally in affordable housing – see Affordable Housing Programme Autumn Update, 29 September 2021 (https://www.cne-siar.gov.uk/news/2021/september/affordable-housing-programme-autumn-update/ )

‘The Affordable Housing Programme has made further progress throughout the islands over the spring and summer, and the Programme has now completed well over 500 homes – a significant milestone. This financial year, 170 are currently on the ground and at various stages of completion. These achievements reflect the strong partnerships we have developed with the Comhairle, Scottish Government and our contractors and communities.”

And then: ’The Comhairle recently welcomed confirmation of Scottish Government funding of £43m for affordable housing for the five-year period from 2021-2026,’

End note

The purpose here is not to suggest that the economy of Na h-Eileanan Siar is in the rudest of health – there are few places in Scotland or indeed the UK that could make such a claim.

The main point being made is that positives across the period since 2008 are NOT hard to find. The ones above are identified by the Council itself and there are other positives which would give further valuable context and perspective (- we may get round to sharing more!).  But positives tend to be unreported by the corporate mainstream media and BBC Scotland in favour of SNPbad stories!