From BBC Scotland today:
Scotland’s target for cutting planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions has been missed after a bounce back following the pandemic. Total emissions were 49.9% lower in 2021 than in 1990 but the target for the year was a 51.1% cut.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65960717
So, a shortfall of only 1.2% against a target of 51.1%, is a ‘miss?’ It is more ‘a near miss‘ technically?
Also is the 1.2% gap reliably accurately measured?
No.
Although the primary emission inventory is continuously being improved, the uncertainties in the emission estimates must still be considered high
https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/empire/naei/annreport/annrep99/chap4_6.html
The Scottish Government, above, has managed to get emissions down to 41 MtC02e. The UK Government managed only to get the level down to 50.9, around 25% higher.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/c70d8e9e-e815-400b-a059-bbb78795f711
Talking-up Scotland 
The article is an exemplar of negative framing.
It MAY be accurate to report a missed target but without the context of a time series graph, a demonstration of an actual recent unfavourable trend etc the headline is let’s say partial,
Indeed later in the article there are positives that could have given different and positive headlines- silly thought!
There is of course one other obvious statistic to give! It’s how Scotland compares to its neighbours.
The Scottish Government webpage releasing these latest emissions data even provides the comparative data so the BBC Scotland journalist has ready access to these. No excuse not to provide perspective.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-greenhouse-gas-statistics-2021/
UK comparisons: % change since base level in 1990 to end 2021:
England: – 48.8%
Scotland: – 49.2%
NI: – 22.9%
Wales: – 34.5%
UK Total: – 46.7%.
So again the progress achieved in Scotland stands up well in cross UK comparisons – overall Scotland has achieved the greatest reduction despite missing its 2021 target by what – by 1.2%!!!
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A 49.9% attainment versus a target of 51.1% gives an achieved result of 97.7%.
That’s an excellent outcome and I would expect well within statistical margin of error given the high risk of ‘uncertainties in the emission estimate’.
BBC Scotland really need to take a long hard look at their editorial policies, but I’ll not hold my breath.
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Aye BBC Scotland, where every day is just misery, depression and all things dreadful.
I am surprised some of their staff didn’t try and jump into the Clyde after Scotland’s 2-1 win over Norway.
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In their lunchtime radio programme they gave a rep from Oxfam plenty of opportunity to criticise Scottish Government. I hadn’t seen this blog at that time but I could not understand why he was getting so “het up”, you would have thought there was an excessive difference between the actual v target figures.
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Scotland meets the targets.
The UK 1% of the world emissions.
US/India/China etc must do more. To achieve countdown.
Labour unionists interfering once more in Scotland fuel and energy resources. Scotland in surplus and nearer the source pays more. Westminster poor, bad decisions. £5Billion more for the military, instead of the NHS. Killing people instead of keeping them alive.
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And in typical HMS James Cook fashion they’ve added ‘Comments’ since they published this rot by Kevin Keane this morning, resetting the time to 4 hours old – BBC Scotland’s Tardis trick complete with sticky backed plastic.
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Eamonn Martin writes: ‘A 49.9% attainment versus a target of 51.1% gives an achieved result of 97.7%.. That’s an excellent outcome’.
Most reasonable people might think so but it’s obviously disastrous enough for the Head of Oxfam Scotland to get carried away with words. He is quoted on the organisation’s website stating – with obvious flourish:
“The Scottish Government’s latest failure to meet its own annual climate target is YET ANOTHER RECKLESS MISSTEP in a VERY DANGEROUS DANCE WITH CLIMATE DESTRUCTION: ONE THAT THREATENS ALL OF OUR FUTURES, but particularly those of people living in poverty.’ (with my emphasis) Wee Scotland missing a TARGET by c. 1-2% has such an impact!
Source https://oxfamapps.org/scotland/2023/06/20/failure-to-meet-climate-targets-a-reckless-misstep-oxfam-scotland/
Stop Climate Chaos Scotland (SCCS) in a press statement relating to the same data release is more sober:
‘“The impacts of climate change both here and abroad are devastating lives and livelihoods in countries which have contributed the least to it and continue to bear the cost for its worst effects. WHILE SCOTLAND HAS BEEN RIGHTLY RECOGNISED FOR TAKING THE IMPORTANT STEP OF COMMITTING MONEY TO A LOSS AND DAMAGE FUND, this will all be in vain if we fail to rapidly bring down domestic emissions.”
“We need to see bold new action to drive down emissions in the worst polluting sectors including transport, housing and agriculture in the forthcoming Climate Change Plan, with additional investment financed by making polluters pay.”
Fortunately, this statement is free of ‘reckless steps’ and ‘dangerous dances’ favoured by Oxfam!
The SCCS website notes that it works on UK-wide campaigns when appropriate with sister organisations in England (The Climate Coalition) and Wales (Stop Climate Chaos Cymru). I visited their websites to see latest responses to emissions data for those UK nations.
The Climate Coalition website tells me it most recent report is dated February 2021: it appears to have no ‘news’ section. There must surely be more recent output lurking somewhere!
The Welsh organisation’s website has news reports from 2023 including one under this headline:
‘Achieving climate justice in a globally responsible Wales’ – it has the plea: ‘Welsh Government should lobby the UK Government to be a champion for a Loss and Damage Fund and advocate for a Loss and Damage tax on profits of fossil fuel companies registered in the UK.’ Read about ‘loss and damage’ in a Scottish context before?
Other recent articles on Wales here are under ‘neutral to positive headlines. Recall that an earlier btl post in this thread compared the level of emissions reduction since 1990 in Scotland and Wales. There is a BIG difference! Can’t find anything on the Oxfam Wales website specifically on emission reductions by the way!
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BBC Scotland are failing their target too , they use so much energy reporting nonsense and lies about Scotland in general and Scottish government in particular that the WHO should be informed .
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O/T but still on the subject of environmental credentials of political parties.
This is from the respected energy research & consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie on the topic of the Labour Party’s big plan to end new UKCS exploration licences if they are on government.
The Wood Mac statement issued on 19 June has this headline: ‘Keir Starmer softens stance on UK oil and gas – decision to halt new exploration licences’. would have minimal impact
‘The recent announcement by Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK’s Labour Party, that he will ban new oil and gas exploration licences if he gains power at the next election will be viewed as A LARGELY SYMBOLIC GESTURE according to analysts Wood Mackenzie, the leading provider of decision intelligence for the world’s natural resources sector. (my emphasis)
‘Principal Analyst Upstream Greg Roddick said that because all activity on existing licences will be allowed to continue, Mr. Starmer’s announcement could even be INTERPRETED AS A SOFTENING OF LABOUR’S PREVIOUS POSITION.
“Labour has said changes would only impact the offer of new licences,” Mr. Roddick says. “Opportunities in existing licences are more material and, in recent years, exploration drilling has already dropped to historic lows .”
‘Wood Mackenzie estimates that the UK has YET-TO-FIND PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES OF JUST OVER 1 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL EQUIVALENT. THIS IS OVERWHELMINGLY LOCATED ON EXISTING EXPLORATION LICENCES and the last new acreage to see a commercial discovery was awarded in 2012. The previous two licencing rounds failed to deliver any drilling commitments and the first exploration well from the last round in (2020) is only expected to be drilled this year.
“In short, THE INDUSTRY HAS LONG HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO SECURE THE MOST PROSPECTIVE UK ACREAGE AND HAS LARGELY ALREADY DONE SO,” Roddick says. “There is no guarantee that new, commercial discoveries will be found. Those that are will likely be small and are unlikely to reverse the trend given the maturity of the UK Continental Shelf.”
Source: https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/keir-starmer-softens-stance/
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The one per cent is so important.
Propaganda tonight.
Food inflation rate is now down to 16.2%.
Was 17% last week.
Food prices are just going up at an ever so slightly lower rate, within the probability of calculation.
Oh the target is 2 %.
Welsh government get letters demanding glass removed from their DRS, seems the Welsh are the only ‘country’ with glass in their scheme, diverging from the union.
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