Latest poll finds no change in SNP support after Sturgeon arrest

The Sunday Times today is gleefully reporting:

Labour will defeat SNP at the next election for the first time since 2010 to become Scotland’s largest party at Westminster, according to a landmark new poll.

In a seismic reversal of fortunes, the Labour party would end a decade of electoral mediocrity north of the border to win a majority of seats by returning 26 MPs — an astonishing surge from their current bedrock of one.

Such a scenario will dramatically boost Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of entering Downing Street next year. The SNP would likely be cast into turmoil with Labour cannibalising most of their new votes from the Nationalists, who would lose more than half of their 45 seats.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/285307e8-0d15-11ee-aa7c-6e26d8c3ad9b?shareToken=ac6c801e66b5ff7149f4d157d3c4bf39

As always, those who fund a poll like to present it as special in some way.

However, look at the longer trends below:

First, look at the last three Panelbase polls – 39% in early March, 37% in late March, 36% in mid June – no significant change.

Second, notice the Panelbase tendency to come in low compared to other polls in the same time period.

Third, look at the Savanta poll only days earlier at 40% and the Ipsos poll at 42% in late May. Signs of SNP recovery?

Watch out for the next poll.

8 thoughts on “Latest poll finds no change in SNP support after Sturgeon arrest

  1. People who support Independence need to get out and vote. Too low turnout. By election. Labour ‘won’. 22% turnout. Independence Party could have won if Independence supporters turned out to vote.

    Council elections 30% turnout. Holyrood 50% turnout. GE 60% turnout. Referendum 85% turnout. On average. If people support Independence they need to go out and vote for it every election. Take another too. Use it or lose it.

    March to the Polling station, with a higher turnout.

    Treaty of Union. Scotland was to be treated equally. That has not happened. Iraq, Lockerbie, Dunblane kept secret for 100 years. Other policies kept secret for 30 years. Scotland was lied to repeatedly by Westminster Gov.

    UN principles. Self determination, self governance when people vote for it. Westminster breaking International Law again. Support for Independence increasing. Westminster lies trying to hold it back. Demographics. Increasing support for Independence.

    Terms of treaty of Union. Scotland had to be treated equally. That has not happened. Outvoted 10 to 1 with limited Devolution. No taxation without representation. The Treaty of Union. The Treaty could be dissolved if agents/representatives of each country negotiated it.

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  2. Repeatedly we are shown that the Westminster government are corrupt and tell lies same goes for newspapers and to and radio in uk all lying on behalf of Westminster , the pollsters are corrupt too funded by media businesses that also fund the very newspapers we know tell us lies you simply cannot trust any of them so take these pills with a pinch of salt
    On the whole people will vote for what they believe in and pollsters will not affect their decision making.

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  3. Waken up man—its not polls that count.
    Its votes at the ballet box.
    And the snp are NOT getting them. FACT !
    And they will never get them again. FACT !
    Unless they change—Thats a laff.

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  4. Facts have a pesky habit of being checkable:

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Scotland&ved=2ahUKEwitwdXr_Mz_AhWMZsAKHRslDdsQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw1j-CPUF0TRegxrNGTjJNCM

    Its all in there, easily accessible with a few clicks. Upward trajectory in every Scottish Parliament election, bar one (2003). A similar picture from the UK elections over the same timeframe; one dip in 2017.

    It would appear you’ve based your opinion on recent polls (that you claim don’t count), not actual verifiable numbers.

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    1. Cheers Drew, I had a look via the link and its all there and in colour right enough and that’s a fact 🙂

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      1. They almost certainly have, but what will the impact be by the time we can test it?

        Will the current feeding frenzy, over independence campaign donations, have a long-term effect? From what I can gather, polling suggests people are switching from SNP to don’t know. There’s not much evidence of direct switching from SNP to Labour, or any unionist party.

        I’ve voted SNP at UK and Scottish elections since 1983, when I was 19; the sole exception being for Donald Gorrie to unseat Lord James Douglas-Hamilton in Edinburgh West in ’97. I haven’t made the crossover from Labour to the SNP, I’m sure it was difficult for some when they realised Labour had left them. I saw you in a video when you said you were a Labour supporter in the past. You’ve made the switch, but I’d be mightily surprised if you saw anything, in the current Labour party, that would tempt you back.

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