
Small sub-polls but when they all say the same thing, there is something there.
From People Polling with data collected on 29 March, has increased lead :
Scottish Labour 20%
Scottish Cons 14%
SNP 48%
Greens 4%
UK Labour 42%
UK Cons 24%
People Polling on March 22, had:
Scottish Labour 21%
Scottish Cons 9%
SNP 44%
Greens 5%
UK Labour 43%
UK Cons 22%
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202303_GBN_W12_full.pdf#subsection*.12
People Polling on March 17, had:
Scottish Labour 32%
Scottish Cons 12%
SNP 46%
Greens 6%
UK Labour 45%
UK Cons 20%
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202303_GBN_W11_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Message? No worries.
No doubt that the SNP’s support will increase even farther after a few more performances from Humza Yousaf at FMQs.
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On the other hand John the Scotsman are pleased and proud to publicise a Savanta poll suggesting labour could take up to 18 seats. Now leaving aside that the SNP could benefit from the likely loss of Tory seats so that if the SNP took their seats the net loss would be 12, and the the possibility of 2or 3 Lib Dem seats, the SNP would be on a net loss of 9 or 10 from 48, so still more than the 2017 disaster.
Moreover the immediatel recent past has been a beanfeast for the Scottish Unionist Media ,(SUM) and how they’ve taken it. To the extent Yousaf can show himself to be a worthy successor to Sturgeon it’s reasonable to expect things not even to be as bad as this. Then there’s the inability of Starmer to understand Scotland or even treat it as more than a source of seats to win the election (which will be closer than we might think just now).
The worst case analysis seems to me to be that being reduced to 38 seats acts as a wake up call to focus on indy, winning the debate on what might be done under indy (poverty, exploiting our energy resources and so many others) and not getting distracted by more marginal issues.
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