The leadership campaigns and the drooling media coverage have reduced SNP constituency support for a Holyrood election from an average of 46.7% in the 9 surveys before Christmas to an average of 42% since then but the fall is not worsening with those last 5, after the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, in a flat sequence of 39, 43, 43, 42, 40, 42.
Notably, the sequence for the last 4 YouGov polls, with identical sampling and other methods has also been flat at 44, 39, 42, 42, with the last two after the leadership campaigns were well underway.
There’s nothing here to suggest support is going any lower. Indeed support looks better currently than it did in the long period from August 2017 to June 2019, when it rarely climbed above 42 and often sank below 40.
As for the regional vote that looks largely unchanged in the mid 30s such that any loss of constituency seats may be offset by additional regional seats.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
Talking-up Scotland 
There’s been a lot of speculation about the number of SNP members. Tonight on STV’s political editor said there were 103,000 members.
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The very new concern by the KF’s camp that she would not have the full support of her own MPs and MSPs must be a concern for all SNP members.
If, or rather when, we elect her if that supposition is shown to be correct then the SNP members will, or should, vote with our feet.
A party that once took pride in being a member’s party, until the NEC went rogue will, undoubtedly, lose members if our elected members also go rogue.
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Why? Personally, I’ve not decided as yet which candidate to vote for, but whoever wins, I will support them wholeheartedly, and I hope all our M.P/M.S.Ps, will do the same.
As for not being a members party, I just don’t believe that statement. Despite, due to health reasons, I haven’t been able to take part, physically, in recent activity, I have been contacted at regular intervals by my M.S.P/M.P/ Councillors, making sure I had everything I needed.
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Kate Forges will win. Support for Independence will increase. I
The nuclear subs will go out of Scotland. Scotland will reunite with the EU. Leave the Westminster warmongers behind.
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Kate Forbes will win.
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I like the iron implied in Forges
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A political party is defined as an organised group of people with at least similar political aims and opinions, that seeks to influence public policy by getting its candidates elected to public office. As I ponder the merits of the current SNP leadership candidates I am grappling with the following
Do parties reach a point they can no longer contain all the different factions which develop over time? Is the goal of and belief in independence enough to bind these factions together into a coherent whole? After all we have seen the UK Conservatives kick out the softer/principled members of their party and Labour the hard left Momentum supporters – what is the tipping point and how do you recognise it?
Charismatic leaders via talented teams. I admire Nicola Sturgeon and think that much of what she achieved is overshadowed by the failure to achieve independence, but this should never in my opinion be the fault or responsibility of any one individual. Is there a danger we try to replace her (and Alex Salmond) by burdening another individual with all our hopes and expectations or do we aim instead to elect a party/team builder and player?
Tolerance. There are or have been times & places where different groups with different ethnicities, beliefs and values cohabit a space until division naturally grown or deliberately provoked creates intolerance. Some folk have said they don’t want to be just tolerated but then imply they will not tolerate a leader with different values, fearing one will trump the other. The Equality Act has both gender and religious belief as protected characteristics so how do we respect both when they seem at times so far apart?
Rural v urban, small c conservatism v progressive policies – are these connected? have we focused too much on one to the detriment of the other? Do we fall for our own spin on how we like to portray our country?
I have watched every husting and debate, listened to phone ins and read articles and tweets from all sides. No matter who wins I will for now continue to support the party with my vote and my interest. At some point between now and 27th Mar I will decide who to back based on what I think, trying to ignore the pressure of clamouring voices, vindictive digs or expressions of genuine concern. Surely this is our first chance in years to take stock, to test the mood and desire of the party by democratic election without wrecking it all in advance by setting hard against anyone but my choice, and then to decide is this the party for me without rancour or recriminations.
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