Scotland unlikely to face any major GP shortage in five years

In its annual survey of members, 36% said they’d be unlikely to be working as a GP in five year’s time.

Some facts:

The GP headcount in Scotland increased from 4,400 in 2019 to 4,514 in 2022, an increase of just below 3%

Click to access gp_workforce_survey_2022_report.pdf

The average age that Scottish GPs retire has been constant for years, at between 58 and 59. There has never been a flood of early retirements.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-19-00620/

An FoI by the Lib Dems in August 2022, fed to the Sun, found only 126 cases of under-65s retiring, over 7 years. Less than 20 per year, on average.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/9268691/nhs-scotland-gps-early-retirement/#:~:text=The%20stats%2C%20obtained%20via%20freedom,age%20was%20in%202019%2D20.

Getting back to this survey, on Reporting Scotland, which has still not made it to the BBC website nor to any of the newspapers, is it just another feed for John Beattie from a pal in the RCGP?

There’s no sign of an RCGP Scotland survey reported anywhere but there is one from them at a UK level from September (April) 2022.

Interestingly, it has this:

Also in the report, based on reliable data, only NHS Scotland had an increase in GP staffing at 3.3%. England, -6.3%; N Ireland, -7.4%; Wales, -9.5%.

There is nowhere in this report any indication of how many GPs responded to the survey. As evidence this makes it worthless.

I had to go back to a 2018 RCGP Scotland survey to find an example – 355 responses, 8%:

Click to access RCGP-Scotland-Wellbeing-Survey-Report-June-2019.pdf

So taking this as a reasonable indicator in the context of the RCGP clearly trying to conceal the figure and based on a self-selecting, ‘squeaky wheel’ response of around 10% to be generous, we get 150 GPs threatening to retire early over the next 5 years.

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6 thoughts on “Scotland unlikely to face any major GP shortage in five years

      1. Oh please, he’s the consummate professional balloon, the legend in his own lunchtime, etc., etc..
        As an early fan of McGoohan’s “The Prisoner” series, balloon does indeed appear entirely appropriate to Cook’s current function, to cover all the “Hancocks” by confusing all and sundry and pointing to squirrels.
        Doubtless he’s hoping to progress beyond being merely an arse in an Armani suit to an arse in an even more exotic suit with a handsome reward when it all goes pear-shaped a-la right-dishonourable agent Sarah Smith.

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        1. Who would have thought Nicola and Number 6 would share the experience of being chased by a balloon employed by the British state though I think Patrick’s had more class.

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  1. AS somewon who has worked in newspapers all my life, I know that a ‘row’ story is what editors want before a good news one! ‘Twas ever thus!

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