In its annual survey of members, 36% said they’d be unlikely to be working as a GP in five year’s time.
The GP headcount in Scotland increased from 4,400 in 2019 to 4,514 in 2022, an increase of just below 3%
The average age that Scottish GPs retire has been constant for years, at between 58 and 59. There has never been a flood of early retirements.
An FoI by the Lib Dems in August 2022, fed to the Sun, found only 126 cases of under-65s retiring, over 7 years. Less than 20 per year, on average.
Getting back to this survey, on Reporting Scotland, which has still not made it to the BBC website nor to any of the newspapers, is it just another feed for John Beattie from a pal in the RCGP?
There’s no sign of an RCGP Scotland survey reported anywhere but there is one from them at a UK level from September (April) 2022.
Interestingly, it has this:
Also in the report, based on reliable data, only NHS Scotland had an increase in GP staffing at 3.3%. England, -6.3%; N Ireland, -7.4%; Wales, -9.5%.
There is nowhere in this report any indication of how many GPs responded to the survey. As evidence this makes it worthless.
I had to go back to a 2018 RCGP Scotland survey to find an example – 355 responses, 8%:
So taking this as a reasonable indicator in the context of the RCGP clearly trying to conceal the figure and based on a self-selecting, ‘squeaky wheel’ response of around 10% to be generous, we get 150 GPs threatening to retire early over the next 5 years.