Scottish Labour lag is giving Sarwar a headache?

I’m shocked. Kenny Farquharson hasn’t bother to look at the actual support for Scottish Labour to see if they might be replicating the Starmer surge in England.

It’s so easy.

In the last 5 full Scottish polls, August-October 2022, the SNP averaged 46.6% and Labour averaged 26.2%, more than a 20% lead, as the Con support collapsed.

In March-April, the 5 poll averages were 44.8% and 24%, the same lead.

So, a 2% climb for both between March and October? Nothing really.

At the end of 2021, Labour were in 3rd place with the Cons typically 2 to 3% ahead of them and the SNP around 1 to 2% higher than today.

Labour is not so much catching the SNP as getting reluctant rightist-unionists switching.

Re-arranging the deck-chairs on the Titanic?

7 thoughts on “Scottish Labour lag is giving Sarwar a headache?

  1. I made that very point to him yesterday in reply to one of his Tweets. Even went to the trouble of citing Electoral Calculus which showed that if you added Tory to Labour you would get the same number since 2019 +/- 5%, and that “they were fishing in the same pool”. Kenny told me to “b*****r off”. I’ve saved that Tweet for the next time he has a go at Cybernats.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. The number can be as low as 33% (Times in September this year), but usually its forty something.
    Perhaps the most noticeable thing is that something happened in December last year (another report about parties?) when the normal situation where Tory > Labour persistently if not consistently (ie there are a few anomalous months) that had persisted since 2019, flipped, and since then Tory < Labour.
    The other noticeable thing is that even in the Labour months mirabilis, when their vote in Scotland was estimated at 31%, the SNP vote held firm.on middle 40s.
    Another example of a Unionist scribbler starting from his conclusion and working back to the question, torturing the evidence as required on his way.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. The “Times of London” was once a world renowned newspaper.

    But as far as “Scotland” reportage is concerned, its “journalists” are pretty rabid Unionists, not afraid to slew facts to suit their agenda.

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  4. Voting for the Blue or Red Tories is the norm now in Scotland under Sarwar/DRoss .
    This is known as ”pooling and sharing ” by the unionists .

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  5. This would be Ok if the SNP were at actually doing something to pursue independence. If we didn’t have Sturgeon the selfie Queen we would have been free by now. Sturgeon is a Trojan horse for the Union. Until the SNP is either cleansed from Yahoo’s and Unionists within or a credible alternative to the SNP is found we are going no where.

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    1. Oh please , save us from the unionist enablers, next thing you will be telling us , is that the 1% party are the alternative.

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  6. If, like most unionists, you do not believe Scotland is a country and is just a region of the United Kingdom/England-Britain, then a Labour opinion poll lead UK/England-Britain (not counting the North of Ireland) means a Labour lead everywhere. This was clear after the Brexit vote where despite 62% of Scots voting to Remain, this, BBC Scotland reporters stated at every opportunity was irrelevant since Brexit was a vote of “the WHOLE country”.

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