The Sunak minor swell but the long-term survival of the Cons

Comparing the predicted Labour and Con support in the 7 polls after his anointment and the 7 before, the averages are:

Cons 24.3% and 21.4%, a less than 3% improvement.

Labour 51.4% and 53%, a less than 2% fall.

The Cons will now cling on for two years. Labour remain impotent.

In two years time a lot can happen.

Ukraine win and the weapons ‘provided’ by Boris are reported as having been critical,

Boris returns, there’s another Labour civil war… know….the Cons win again.

Devolution is reversed.

We have to get 60% to win a referendum.

300 Scots soldiers die in abortive attack on Iran…..

The only way for Scotland is out.

6 thoughts on “The Sunak minor swell but the long-term survival of the Cons

  1. The Catch 22 of political systems :
    No rational mind would think the present FPTP system is suitable for a modern democracy .
    You’d have to be crazy to want the present UK FPTP system so any sane party would change it . But no rational party ever wins so they don’t change it when elected .

    Liked by 3 people

  2. Meanwhile BBC Hootsmon continues to propagandise for the Brit Nats as…………………………

    Scotland’s DUP (DRossies Useless Poltroons) loudly shout—
    “No Shurrrrendurrr”!
    Anas Starwars + Brian Wilson claim the NHS would be SOOOOOO much better run by Scorrish (sic) Labour’s Health spokesperson (is Jackie Baillie as good a health advert as Therese Coffee was?).

    Maybe as good as the NHS run by Welsh Labour?
    Or the NHS run by the English Tories?

    The truth is decades of underfunding and “cutting the fat” has left the NHS in big trouble, UK-wide.
    The “Scottish” Media go along with the pretence that it’s the “Nats” to blame, but that is rank biased journalism.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. The “permanent” binary choice which once dominated UK politics now only persists in England.

    Welsh Labour has survived by being both pragmatic and democratic, but contrast that with Scottish Labour’s total refusal to diverge from the HQ line.
    In both cases it’s “just politics”, but only in Scotland do they refuse to accept Westminster is at the root of the problem, thus destroying their own political credibility and support.

    For Scots I doubt it matters much if at all what influences England’s electorate over the next two years, support for the Union is already lost bar the counting, continuing political arrogance will only hasten it’s demise.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. The only binary choice for Scots, is to allow….
    your country, your assets and your people to be ground down in the interests of the big next-door neighbour.

    Or to elect your own government, to run your affairs in your own country’s interests, and to be happy in your own skin (without the BBC negativity).

    Liked by 2 people

  5. I suspect that the return of the Boris is something that is being planned. The fact he withdrew recently I dont think that important. History repeats itself first as farce then as tragedy, but not that quickly. I suspect they will give young Rishi time to hang himself several times over before moving.
    Let’s think for a minute about Rishi. This is a guy who was elected first in 2015 (replacing Willie Hague) who became Chief Secy to the Treasury with Javid as Chancellor when BoJo was PM (interestingly he replaced Liz Truss then as well). When Javid, it is said, fell out with Cummings (who wanted him to sack his advisors so that he could do it) Javid (I think to his credit) said no and resigned. Sunak took the gig, but if the story about why Javid resigned, it’s pretty clear that he had few degrees of freedom during his time as Chancellor.
    Of course, it is said that it was Sunak who led the revolt against Johnson that led to his demise, but the problem with that analysis is that it assumes that Johnson had not blown his feet off and cut his own legs off with such as partygate, and that all it took was for someone – anyone – to cry “enough” and that would be the end of him. While Sunak might have been first, what actually brought Johnson down was that given long enough he would have been governing the country on his own along with Carrie.
    Since then we have had the farce of Liz Truss, and it’s probably not going too far to say that had the Tories not installed Sunak there really was no alternative to going to the country and being wiped out. But that is a long way from saying that they all love him.
    His position already seems to be getting compromised by Suella Braverman – sacked as Home Secy one week by a weak PM and reinstalled a week later by a new PM who should be strong. “That is most illogical Jim”.
    His Chancellor is being talked of as introducing significant tax rises as well as expenditure cuts. It seems just as illogical to expect that they will change John’s numbers all that much, or at least not in a positive way. Linked to that we face an unprecedented winter – rising Covid and flu, an NHS under strain struggling already and threatened by industrial action as well as by real terms cuts. inflation at a level we havent seen for 40 years, strikes in other public services (trains, teachers etc) and all the while energy prices rise (and Hunt has made uncertain what support there will be after April). And just to rub it in, the lights could start going out. Let’s see how young Rishi does in the face of that lot.
    If the numbers arent changing by the middle of next year then of course the Tory Party is going to get anxious. Who is there to replace young Rishi? Well really there is only one candidate, isnt there? And isnt he better to allow the patsy to take the rap for all the disasters of the coming winter?
    In short, I dont think the Ukraine was has much to do with what will happen. I doubt much has changed since Chamberlain in 1938 spoke of, “a “quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing”.

    Liked by 2 people

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