Martin Geissler’s hatchet is blunt

In a ridiculous, frankly embarrassing, interview with John Swinney, BBC Scotland’s Martin Geissler made a number of shouty remarks trying to cast doubt on Scotland’s economy post-independence. He even tried to revive the hoary old notion that we’d have a long difficult path to EU membership. Surely that’s dead now after a string of contrary comments from leading European politicians?

However, his suggestion that we’d face ‘10/15 years the economic wilderness‘ when the current average for EU membership is 9 years and, given our current fit with EU requirements, means that 3 years is more likely, was merely a detestable scare revealing deep and unprofessional bias.

Croatia, just out of a brutal civil war, with rule of law and an independent judiciary still being developed, took only 9.

For a more reasoned assessment of Scotland after independence, see this:

Scotland is a mid-sized European nation with a glittering array of natural resources. It has one of the most educated populations in the world and rich cultural history. It punches way above its weight when it comes to international recognition and it has brands, products, and entire industries revered and respected across the globe. An independent Scotland would be a unique global event: never before has a country so wealthy entered onto the world stage. All of this in undeniable so why isn’t it simply accepted?

https://scotonomics.scot/2022/02/14/an-independent-scotland-will-be-a-successful-small-european-nation/

and this:

The evidence is beyond doubt: small nations are successful. Here are a few more perspectives:

Why do so many small economies perform better? (World Economic Forum)

Small Countries Are Better: They’re Often Richer and Safer Than Big Countries (Mises Institute)

https://scotonomics.scot/2022/02/14/an-independent-scotland-will-be-a-successful-small-european-nation/

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15 thoughts on “Martin Geissler’s hatchet is blunt

  1. One of the major issues exposed by the current crisis is the importance and dependence most states have on secure energy supplies
    Scotland is a net exporter of energy and the EU will be falling over themselves to have us as a member state especially given our potential for providing secure and relatively cheap electricity and gas (Green Hydrogen) in future.
    These resources will not be running out any time soon,unlike the fossil fuels that England is planning to depend on,despite their recent claims about it being an unreliable diminishing source of energy supply and revenue.
    Geissler needs to get out more often.

    Liked by 4 people

  2. The Geissler tube was made of glass and was used as a low pressure gas-discharge tube in the late 1800s, nice to see Martin continues the family tradition of being a tube….

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Scots with more savvy than BBC’s interviewers are fully aware that decisions on the central bank, currency, timing, EU, etc have to be made by the Scottish Government after independence not by any political party before the referendum.
    I hope that after independence the Scottish people elect the kind of politicians who have, as John Swinney said, given Scotland over twenty years of stable government on a balanced budget.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Not after independence. The work should start on a new currency a week after the Yes vote win once we recover from our hangovers. Currency can be live within three months of Independence Day. Search the web for ‘the Scottish reserve bank’

      Like

  4. I’d believe J R Mogg more than I would Geissler, when he said it will take 50 years to feel the benefits of Brexit! FIFTY years, sounds about right and I suspect Scotland while shackled to the ‘union’ will never recover.

    I saw the usual orange glow over in Fife from Edinburgh yesterday evening, (not the sunset sadly) we can see when they are burning off excess gas, that as we know cannot be stored because of English governments’ dismantling gas storage facilities. This usually happens in warmer weather, it’s unusally warm right now.

    Geissler and others of his ilk in the media do real jouralists a serious disservice, many of whom are seriously persecuted across the globe, for trying to get the truth out. Shame on these BritNats at the BBC.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Just to confirm I have detest Rees Mogg and I have recently watched a programme about whether aliens may have visited earth long ago, maybe leaving some fossils if only we could find them. If only.
      I think they already did.

      God I wish I’d thought like that as a kid, how to get rich and stay rich…not really just kidding.
      It would be funny if he wasn’t in government making decsions about poor peoples’ lives. 😦

      Liked by 2 people

  5. ‘… shouty remarks trying to cast doubt on Scotland’s economy post-independence’

    In a way this links to a thread on twitter I came across this morning which focused on someone who would ONLY vote for Scotland’s independence IF given a GUARANTEE of future economic conditions.

    This kind of demand for certainty – or for feeling able to ‘cast doubt’ – on Scotland’s future may well be seen as a powerful basis for ‘scaring’ voters but is just so threadbare as a representation of reality. The difference between the concepts of risk and uncertainty are perhaps not widely enough known and the inevitability of the latter insufficiently acknowledged.

    I recently came across an article entitled ‘Radical Uncertainty – decision-making for an unknowable future’ written by the economist John Kay and appearing on the OECD website.

    See https://www.oecd.org/naec/events/understanding-the-economy/radical-uncertainty.htm

    Here are extracts from Kay’s text, with my emphasis: ‘We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. WE REGULARLY CRAVE CERTAINTIES WHICH CANNOT EXIST AND INVENT KNOWLEDGE WE CANNOT HAVE, forgetting that HUMANS ARE SUCCESSFUL BECAUSE WE HAVE ADAPTED TO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WE UNDERSTAND ONLY IMPERFECTLY. ‘

    Kay goes on: ‘The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. IN MOST CRITICAL DECISIONS THERE CAN BE NO FORECASTS OR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS ON WHICH WE MIGHT SENSIBLY RELY.

    ‘Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal STRATEGIES THAT WILL BE ROBUST TO ALTERNATIVE FUTURES AND RESILIENT TO UNPREDICTABLE EVENTS. Within the SECURITY OF SUCH A ROBUST AND RESILIENT REFERENCE NARRATIVE, UNCERTAINTY CAN BE EMBRACED, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit’.

    Kay shares third party, insightful quotes including this one from Keynes: “By uncertain knowledge I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probability.

    ‘The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper, or the rate of interest in twenty years hence, or the obsolescence of invention, or the position of private wealth owners in the social system in 1970.

    ‘ABOUT THESE MATTERS THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC BASIS TO FORM ANY CALCULABLE PROBABILITY WHATEVER. WE SIMPLY DO NOT KNOW.” J M Keynes, General Theory, 1937

    Time for BBC Scotland journalists to undertake some wider reading – and deeper reflection?

    Liked by 3 people

  6. What Geissler is taking no
    Conisgence of is that his political masters from London and Westminster
    Is the huge elephant in the
    Room with regards The UK
    A good few of retired Snr.Tories are openly stating that application for reentry to the EU will become a absolute necessity in order to prevent economic decline and possible collapse into 3rd World status
    As soon as Europe’s retired
    EU Snr. Civil servants and advisors heard of this they immediately retorted that reentry nigh on impossible as Europe has now moved on considerably since Brexit
    Stating the main reasons the UK has no chance
    1.A vital component of a application to even be considered is that all New members MUST have a legally binding written constitution that clearly states what the citizens rights are and such must be fully under the jurisdiction of The European courts at entry
    Never ever will Westminster sign up for this
    2. The Tories well and truly
    Burned all the bridges as
    Brexit enacts making many a enemy in the process
    3.Any one of the EU can veto any application
    4.It now suits the major players in Europe to have a considerably weakened UK
    as a neighbour
    Given all above please ask Geissler not if but when Scotland departs How the what remains of the UK
    Rejoins the EU and
    As to how on earth England shall overcome the consequences of such

    Liked by 3 people

  7. ‘… given our current fit with EU requirements, means that 3 years is more likely’

    Full EU membership may be a final objective for many. However, there are multiple pathways through which an independent Scotland can gain economic benefit short of this, including ones enabled by pragmatic transitional arrangements. These multiple time lines include:

    1) time to conclude a trade deal with the EU comparable to the one we have now within the UK.

    2) time to agree a transitional trade agreement with the EU preparatory to full membership.

    3) time to secure a transitional agreement with, or full membership of, EFTA and membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) -with benefits for trade and freedom of movement. (Membership of the EEA in this way would deliver much of the direct economic benefits of full EU membership.)

    4) time to secure a transitional trade agreement with the rUK – to the benefit of both Scottish and rUK businesses – whilst Scotland’s (and arguably the rUK’s) relationship with the EU is finalised.

    5) time to secure full EU membership – should the people of Scotland wish this. (Many of the direct economic benefits for Scotland may be secured initially via transitional arrangements and/or EFTA.)

    6) time to confirm formally Scotland’s involvement in the existing Common Travel Area with the UK and Ireland. (This should be almost instantaneous!)

    Other timelines to the realisation of benefit?

    We must not permit the negativity, the pessimism and the over- simplification inherent in BBC Scotland’s Unionist view of Scotland’ independent futures to win out. Scotland’s voters need to get better informed about our country’s assets, its domestic and international options, and the value of having the ‘normal’ political agency of a nation-state embedded in our own parliament and in a government (always) of our choosing!

    Liked by 4 people

  8. Below the line on Professor Robertson’s blog is a veritable think-tank. Respect, guys.

    EFTA is an extremely attractive option for Scotland. A ‘foot in both camps’. Frictionless trade with the EU and rUK. Very similar to the current situation in Northern Ireland. And Northern Ireland is booming.

    Like

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