This story will be everywhere as unionists hope to scare with a story based on SFA evidence.
We’ve seen this before as the right-wing media try to undermine Scotland’s gradually improving, more progressive, tax regime.
In 2015, the Telegraph predicted an exodus of the wealthy and young and 2017, Border Region Tories predicted an exodus to England. I can find no subsequent hard evidence that this ever happened.
What is clear is this:
Figure 3.1 shows estimates of net migration between Scotland and rUK over the period 1951-52 to 2017-18. During this period, Scotland changed from being a nation that typically experienced a net outflow of population to one where migration had a positive effect on population growth. Between 1951-52 and 2000-01, 399,000 more people left Scotland for other parts of the UK than moved to Scotland from rUK; since mid-2001, population flows from rUK have increased Scotland’s population by 137,000.https://www.gov.scot/publications/internal-migration-scotland-uk-trends-policy-lessons/pages/5/
In the absence of UK research explaining internal migration, there is evidence from the US Treasury over the period 1999 to 2011. I appreciate that there are limits to such comparison but it remains of interest. There was virtually no correlation between income and migration rates, with middle-earners and the rich, both moving at a rate of around 2.4%. Of particular interest, it was the lower earners who were the most mobile at nearly twice that rate. Perhaps Scotland’s very low taxation of that group and greater access to affordable housing explains why we can staff our public services.