Infection rate trend flattening

As often before, Reporting Scotland staff don’t do the math as our American neighbours might say. Even looking at the graph, you can see we’ve had three days with lower rates than the peak on the 29th August:

When you look at the 7 Day Averages to get a more reliable indicator of the trend, you find it peaked at 5 831 on the 29th and today, four days later, it’s ……………………… 5 831.

Tempting fate perhaps but now some time after the school return, this looks like the plateau before the fall.

7 thoughts on “Infection rate trend flattening

  1. The ZOE Symptom study has been indicating a lessening of the gradient in recent days. They use a different model for data collection, but they are one of the information providers for SAGE to assist in issuing advice.

    It is noticeable that for the past 10/12 days the rate of infections amongst the under 20s is greater than that for all other age groups combined. This suggests that schools, colleges and clubs are involved in transmission, although data published today indicates that the transmission rate in schools, particularly secondaries is much lower than was thought. Of course BBC Scotland majors on a single secondary school in Kirkintilloch and invites people to generalise from that.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. The number of percentage of positive tests has been around 10% for around a fortnight. I know that the WHO recommended figure is less than 5%, and that has been used by the media as a club to beat the SG with.

      More of us are, routinely, using lateral flow tests and, if such a test indicates positive we are recommended to get the main test. So, if more people are using the lateral flow tests and if more are getting positive results and then seeking the more rigorous test, is it not likely that this ‘self-selecting’ sample will result in a higher percentage of positive tests?

      The WHO 5% figure is only a guide figure when the more rigorous testing is for a more random sample. So, if my hypothesis in the second paragraph is reasonable accurate, the 5% marker should be ignored because it is not especially significant in these circumstances.

      There are other contributors to this site whose medical/epidemiological qualifications are more appropriate than my mathematical ones. Perhaps they could comment.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Travelling tabby lets you see “New People Tested”. These tend to be a smaller proportion of new tests about 25%. The variation in new people tested seems to match the variation in total tests more closely recently.
        This I think backs up what you say on positivity.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. It depends on how many people are using the notoriously inaccurate lateral flow tests, how many get a ‘positive’ result and how many of those are found to be true positives when subjected to PCR testing. Overall the effect of the self-testing may not make a large contribution relatively speaking to the overall number of positive tests on any given day.

        A positivity rate greater than 5% is an indication that the virus is still spreading.

        In the town where I live – pop 11,000 – we now have 67 cases. New Zealand – pop 5 million- 49 cases.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. For what is worth
    England is on average conducting 23% less tests recently than in comparison to
    1 month ago
    Whilst Scotland has more than doubled and in some cases tripled testing

    Liked by 5 people

  3. They intent to introduce restrictions for nightclub & gathering. Vaccination passports? After they have been opened and restarted. More people got the virus. Some had been twice inoculated. Many of the nightclubbers got covid. Even those who were repeated testing. Spread like wildfire. Football they did not need proof.

    Liked by 1 person

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