From YouGov today with 1 703 18+ adults based on field work on 2nd and 3rd June 2021, Con support is up 3 points to a shocking 46% with Labour support static at 30% from 29% in May.
In December 2019, the Cons won a majority of 80 seats with a vote of only 42.4% to 40% for Labour.
Do Scots need a stronger warning?
SNP support is typically around 47-48%.
Why do I refer to the Cons as the ENP?
From the Guardian in March 2021:
If traditional class politics has finally faded away, what has replaced it? In England, Scotland and Wales, could it be the rise of specifically national politics based around one dominant party that embodies enough of a sense of optimism and collective identity to set the agenda, while its adversaries fight over whatever is left?
That seems to be the case in Scotland – where, though there may be signs that the toxic feud between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond is slightly weakening the SNP’s grip on politics, its dominant position is hardly under threat. In Wales, though the Labour party is not in nearly as strong a position, its foundations in that country’s most populous areas and its talent for speaking in a gently nationalistic voice have ensured that its place at the heart of politics has always been secure.
Which leaves England. Labour may still dominate all of the big English cities, but across the rest of the country such enduring Tory themes as law and order and patriotism, and the party’s apparent embodiment of optimism and opportunity, seem to have fused with Brexit to make the Conservatives even more immovable. The party has won more English votes than Labour in every general election since 2005. In 2019, its vote share in England was 47.2%. From UK-wide statistics, we also know that Labour was backed by 30.6% of low-income voters, but 45.4% supported the Tories.