SHOCK: 14 point swing to YES and Anas in bottom Place

Anas Sarwar backed by 66 councillors in Labour leadership race | The  National
(c) National

Opinium’s poll today for 11th to 16th March gives Yes a 2 point lead, turning around the Scotland In Union ‘poll’ giving No a 12 point lead for 9th to 12th March.

This dramatic 14 point swing may not be reliable as the 2 point lead represents only a 4 point swing from the previous six polls averaging a 2 point lead for NO.

BBC Scotland have not reported this first lead for Yes for some time and the Herald have headed it:

SNP set to fall short of Holyrood majority again, poll finds

It’s not like Tom Gordon to be so mean-spirited.

In the data there are some juicy bits like this:

Asked: Which, if any, of the following people do you think would be the best First Minister of Scotland?, we get:

  1. Nicola Sturgeon: 50%
  2. None of these: 15%
  3. Don’t know: 13%
  4. Douglas Ross: 12%
  5. Anas Sarwar: 10%

Willie Rennie? Ah, they forgot about him, it seems.

10 thoughts on “SHOCK: 14 point swing to YES and Anas in bottom Place

  1. I followed the link and scrolled down to the results of the questions about the Salmond affair. Is it just me or do the figures for AS really add up to 112% ????


  2. The SIU poll
    Had a completely loaded Question
    That basically asked yes or no
    If you wanted to Remain or Leave the Union
    So loaded was their dice that as it finished along the table it hit the buffer of poll experts as it bounced off the table and landed upon the Sh*t pile


  3. Its SIU poll for the likes of Jo Coburn to gloat over.
    John,Just a thought but what odds do you think I would get on this happening.The mouth off to the Lords Jacko gets the heave and she is installed as SoS for Scotland just imagine her in charge of Scottish Questions and her pal Ian Murray getting special treatment,where is Murray not heard a lot from lately.
    No mention of FMQs on RS tonight I wonder why.


    1. Scott
      No need to wonder as to why ABC (BBC)
      Reporting Scotland had no mention of FMQ,s
      The forceful rebuttal by NS to Rooth the Mooth questions in no uncertain ways
      Firmly put the lid on matters and proved beyond doubt ( subject to enquiry reports)
      That the whole pack of Mad Unionist Dogs
      Were now barking at the moon
      The final checkmate move wil soon be placed
      In front of the Dogs


  4. Yet again, the polls are being used to divert our attention from… the polls! The triumphant proclamation and ostentatious celebration of every upward blip in support for Yes is intended to disguise the fact that support for independence is around ten points below where we might reasonably expect it to be given the near-ideal circumstances for a campaign to end the Union.

    The only reason the polls aren’t higher is Nicola Sturgeon’s failure to take advantage of these circumstances. It is a failure of strategic political thinking stupefying in its self-serving stupidity. A series of appalling misjudgements – such as committing to the Section 30 process and choosing to fight Brexit rather than the Union – has left the independence movement in disarray and Scotland’s cause in a precarious state.

    Even disregarding the failure to capitalise on the momentum the Yes campaign had in the early years of Sturgeon’s tenure as First Minister and all the missed opportunities that predate the public health crisis, we need to be honest with ourselves about where we are at this time. Where we should now have been consolidating a significant lead in the polls in preparation for the final push using the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections to obtain a mandate for a Manifesto for Independence, we are facing the prospect of another five years without any progress towards restoring Scotland’s independence. Five years in which the British political elite will continue to systematically dismantle Scotland’s democracy and put new impediment in the way of Scotland’s cause.

    Even if the margin-of-error ‘soaring’ of the polls above 50% could confidently be regarded as increased support for independence rather than fluctuations attributable to other factors, it is not enough to prevent the same polls now being hailed as the harbingers of victory being used to rationalise yet further pusillanimous procrastination after the election. Had polling been hovering around 60%, as it should, then Sturgeon would have had to find another excuse for delay. That might embarrass even someone who shows not the slightest embarrassment over the way she has failed to provide the independence movement with the leadership it needs. Or anything else, for that matter.

    I totally reject the foolish notion that Sturgeon has forsaken the aspiration to restore Scotland’s independence. But I cannot do other than conclude that this aspiration has been overtaken by self-interest and an unwillingness to participate in the kind of confrontational politics which would necessarily be involved in any serious effort to end the Union. It is difficult to avoid labeling this reluctance political cowardice. Mostly, a fear of losing which severely impairs her judgement.

    Time is short. Scotland’s predicament has never been so perilous. We simply cannot afford to let the weaknesses of one individual jeopardise our cause and our nation. If the SNP goes into the election now less than 50 days away without a manifesto which includes an unequivocal commitment to the actions set out in the Manifesto for Independence the opportunity of this democratic event will be lost as were so many others in the last seven years. We cannot be at all confident that another such opportunity will present itself. We cannot be sure of being able to create such an opportunity. We absolutely must seize this chance.

    However these polls may be presented by those whose loyalty to Nicola Sturgeon is greater than their allegiance to Scotland’s cause, they tell a story of past and continuing failure. We have only days to ensure that this story ends here. We have only days to start writing a new story.


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