The scale of deception

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Dr Mike Galsworthy spotted this in the Times/Panelbase poll report today.

The gap in the first graph is 5% and 6% in the second but look at how much bigger the bad news for Yes campaign is in that second graph.

13 thoughts on “The scale of deception”

  1. Interesting way to put the question.
    Why not “Would Scotland be worse off Independent”

    Perhaps people thought Scotland would be just as well off but not better.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. A better second question?

      How would Scotland be financially after independence?
      – better off
      – worse off
      – no difference
      – don’t know.

      Designing survey questions is a highly skilled task. Intended – but also potentially unintended – consequences of the adopted phraseology abound.

      Liked by 2 people

  2. So 44% think that Scotland will be better or no worse off if independent compared with 42% who think it would be worse off. Surely that isn’t ‘bad news for the YES campaign’.
    As well as the dodgy graphs it is all in how you portray the result

    Liked by 3 people

  3. I assume this is a newspapers representation rather than a polling company.
    To me the big question is always – ‘how have they not gone for the big headline item’ which by newspaper standards would always be ‘look at the huge support for independence!’

    Shows that someone’s strings are being pulled. Always.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. I think as someone else has pointed out this is not the wording of the standard independence question and the results should not therefore be compared with most other polls. I see the 14% don’t knows have been removed from the second result.

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  5. Given the relentless hype over GERS the pol could have been much worse.
    It’s time SNP MP’s earned their corn, and started asking the Treasury for accurate statistics over Scotlands economy.
    No guesstimates, estimates or “assigned” tranches.
    Only factual information.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. Actually the answer to the second question, if accurate, is much more negatively significant for the union than they would like you to think. Some of those voting for Independence don’t give a monkey’s if Scotland is worse off or not.

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    1. It is bloody impossible to be worse off
      We have 34% of all resources despite only being9.8% of UK population
      And when you bring into the equation that most enlightened economists call the new real assets
      I.E. renewable energy resources
      Modern infrastructure
      Quality of education particularly higher
      And more importantly they state that the real future is with small nations who only have to carve out 5 areas of excellence and create a niche that none other compete with
      Scotland already well on the way to already having 5 no.
      Whilst larger Nations will need to be so in up to 50 areas relevant to their size
      So lets finish by asking all how many areas
      Are England truly world class and top in economic activities
      And by some miracle you find more than 5
      Think again because Brexit shall soon lay waste to that

      Liked by 2 people

      1. “It is bloody impossible to be worse off”

        And Scotland can of course have its own ‘magic money tree’ – suitably scaled. That’s the kind of asset available only to a currency-issuing independent nation-state – and it’s an asset that the UK government has been demonstrating to us most certainly exists!

        This is the asset that can be used over time to close in on full employment and enable national investment in the social and physical infrastructure we, the people of Scotland, need and want.

        Liked by 3 people

  7. How can anyone possibly see an economic benefit from giving away your children’s land and all its vast resources to a bunch of near fascists in another country, who treat us with contempt. And for nothing.
    I can’t get my brain round that 42%.

    Many Scots have had zero income since 13 March 2020. Thousands are dependent on food banks. Thousands of families are grieving relatives who died as a result of U.K. government incompetence and corruption in the handling of Covid. Even previously relatively prosperous people now have substantial negative income as they meet the fixed and furlough costs of businesses closed due to Covid.
    Independence may bring challenges, but never in a million years could it be as bad as this.

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  8. Could I respectfully say that I dont necessariy agree that the second graph is “bad news”.
    If you take the gap between better and worse off then you miss two things
    1. if we add the “no difference” under independence group to the “better off” group then independence just shades it. When you think of the buckets of odeur that have been chucked over us with regard to living standards, even that small gap is quite remarkable
    2. during the last referendum Lesley Riddoch ventured the opinion that she knew of no independence movement that was motivated by the possibility that we would all be better off. Sure there are those who will vote with their wallets (though I suspect Brexit has shifted that calculation for some who make it – see your own story on bank fees), but I suspect there are others who frankly don’t care all that much (though don’t take that argument TOO far – I would not go as far as penury), that the argument has become one of getting away from the UK, making our own decisions.
    FWIW (not a lot), if I had been asked that question I would have been torn between “worse off” and “no difference” – certainly in the early days. Setting up a new country is a BIG ask, and mistakes will be made, so any argument about Scotland “the land flowing with milk and honey” should be put off for a bit.

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  9. Q.1 total = 100
    Q.2 total = 86

    So they excluded DKs from the second question image, which gives the impression of a more definite point of view for one lot.

    And of course there will be more definite “worse off” answers. No one can predict the future, and the very polarised will double up on their ‘worse off’ agenda.

    Of course, 44% think better off or no worse, to 42% worse. The 14% DKs are being honest. They have no idea.

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