We’re doomed! Doomed, I tell ye!

Private Frazer. We're doomed!! | Dad's army, Teaching math, Dads

By Alasdair Galloway

Letter to the Herald:

Over the last two days you have included letters by Douglas Cowe and Ian Lakin, concerning the possibility of independence. I might have said “critical of independence”, but criticism demands evidence, and both your correspondents include as much evidence for their assertions as Donald Trump has for his claims of voter fraud. Basically, both have argued that independence is doomed. One can almost hear Private Frazer telling us “we’re doomed, we’re doomed ah tell ye’”.

Mr Lakin dismisses the possibility of a successful independent Scotland with the claim that it would not be possible “without a currency, with massive debt and large fiscal deficit”. Yet, if we stay in the UK, what adjective would he apply to Westminster’s level of debt? And of course, the scale of any fiscal deficit is disputed, no matter how often Mr Lakin and others of his opinion may state this as a “fact”, supported only by a document which itself is clear that it is about Scotland “under present constitutional arrangements” (ie GERS).

He further claims there would be “a flight of capital”, but where would it go? Most of the rest of the world is hardly in a good economic place even now, however long before the Covid emergency ends. So too would there be a flight of people. Would this be to our neighbours in the south, whose economy is hardly likely to be much better and which will have just left the EU, perhaps without any sort of deal to manage future relations.

Mr Cowe claims, “when the chips are down, [Scotland] has to depend on the financial strength of the United Kingdom.” Where does Mr Cowe imagine the current Scottish Government would secure the necessary resources, when its funding comes mostly from the annual block grant (basically an estimate of what Westminster would have spent in Scotland on devolved matters). Big taxes such as National Insurance, Corporate Taxes (including oil tax revenues) and rates of VAT are reserved to Westminster. Most importantly however, Scotland has limited borrowing powers, so unlike Chancellor Sunak, Kate Forbes is not able to phone Andrew Baillie at the Bank of England and ask him for (quite) a few billion pounds. Considering this Mr Cowe, where is the money to come from?

Or is your point that an independent Scotland would be too wee, too poor ….. etc to be able to secure those resources. Let’s take Croatia where the 10-year yield on Croatian government bonds is just under zero-point eight percent. In Greece – remember that is how an independent Scotland would turn out, but without the sunshine – there it’s just over zero-point eight percent.

Debating the wisdom or otherwise of Scotland’s independence is an important matter, too important to start from a conclusion and then following up with no more than assertions.

12 thoughts on “We’re doomed! Doomed, I tell ye!”

  1. Well, you should point this guy to Richard Murphy on youtube, where he fully explains how England fiddles our debt, and none of it is actually due by by Scotland. On Indy we could be a wealthy normal nation, with lots of assets AND no debt.He also says England incurrs the debt as they said in 2014 they will shoulder any debt while Scotland is in the Union as the debt is theirs. Scotland has NO debt.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. ‘Nationalist’? Do you mean pro independence? Or were they a BritNat? Were they from the Scottish NATIONAL Party? Let’s call the ‘unionists’ British Nationalists because that is what they are.
      Aside that, it sounds like the BritNats are having a ball, all that air time for their party political broadcasts, and to talk about the independence referendum, they don’t stop going on about it. Why even discuss a thing when it’s not even happening within their lifetimes, say, 35-50 years, so they tell the people of Scotland, or do they have an elixir which will make them live that long!

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Or even, Scottish national party representative…
        Scotland is internstionalist, the word ‘nationalist’ belongs to ethnic nationalist like the British nationalists.

        Like

      2. Internationalist…no matter how much I check spelling…but been up since 6.30 with the cat, after 3 hours of sleep and the neighbours have decided to do some major drilling, hammering, and god knows what else, since 7am. It’s always very considerate, not. I can’t fathom people these days.

        Like

      3. I beg to differ.
        Scottish Nationalist: a member or supporter of Scottish nationalism or of the Scottish National Party.

        Scottish Nationalism:
        a political ideology advocating the independence of Scotland

        Don’t let the Nazis and Fascists steal a good word.

        Like

  2. The usual excellent contribution from Alisdair Galloway.
    I wish our MPs would emulate Winnie Ewing and ASK QUESTIONS.
    There are lots of things we don’t know—ask the bastards!
    There are lots of things to embarrass them with with QUESTIONS.
    Ask about tax.
    Ask about the actual UK spend in Scotland.
    Ask about shifting Trident.
    Ask how much they would pay to rent Faslane/Coulport for 10 years.
    Ask about their claim to Continuator State status.
    Ask them to tot up UK assets to be divvied out.
    Ask them about historic decisions affecting Scotland.
    Ask them about English exports if they stick up a hard border.
    Every SNP MP should be asking ten questions every day.

    Ask them till they are sick to death with questions.
    Then ask some more.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Absolutely I have been saying that for sometime. Always ask questions and it is the ScotGov and the people of Scotland who should be asking the questions, not meekly going along with the British nationalists’ narrative.
      Ignore their false claims, ask them questions, come on SNP, WE NEED ANSWERS. When the BritNats don’t have adequate asnwers, then the people of Scotland will know where they stand.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. In any event an independent Scotland would have no need to borrow if it had its own currency. It would be able to create new currency at will. That is what the Bank of England does. The B of E also chooses to borrow but does not have to. Scotland would be in the same position.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. David, you are right, our own currency is a must have or we are not really Independent, we would still have to dance to Westminster’s whims, and they will ALWAYS work in their own interest, not Scotland’s.

    I would refer to Richard Murphy’s videos on youtube, on many financial subjects, Forget Andrew Wilsons bunk. Murphy is a real economist and is standing up for Scotland’s rights.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Les. Absolutely. Professor Stephanie Kelton’s book “The Deficit Myth” is also a rattling good read on this subject. See also blogs and videos by Professors Bill Mitchell and Steve Keen.

      Liked by 1 person

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