As England, let down again by political hesitancy, moves toward a fulllockdown, the Scottish Government seems to have the steered the ship into calmer waters.
The infection rate has been falling consistently since the 26th October.
Any fall in the death rate tends to lag several weeks behind falls in the infection rate.
Hospital admissions tend to lag up to a week behind positive tests and have been climbing fast since the end of September, then slowing from mid October, before plateauing. The trend suggests a fall in a few days or weeks.
ICU cases had also been climbing fast since the end of September and began to plateau mid October with, perhaps some sign of a fall commencing.
There is little to suggest the wards will not be able to cope.
Deaths are tragically still climbing but the above evidence gives hope that they too will begin to fall again before long.
If we all remain determined to win.