As England, let down again by political hesitancy, moves toward a fulllockdown, the Scottish Government seems to have the steered the ship into calmer waters.
The infection rate has been falling consistently since the 26th October.
Any fall in the death rate tends to lag several weeks behind falls in the infection rate.
Hospital admissions tend to lag up to a week behind positive tests and have been climbing fast since the end of September, then slowing from mid October, before plateauing. The trend suggests a fall in a few days or weeks.
ICU cases had also been climbing fast since the end of September and began to plateau mid October with, perhaps some sign of a fall commencing.
There is little to suggest the wards will not be able to cope.
Deaths are tragically still climbing but the above evidence gives hope that they too will begin to fall again before long.
If we all remain determined to win.
Saturday mid-morning BBC Radio Scotland programme discussion:
(i) we are encouraged by one contributor not to give too much credence to Independent SAGE’s published graph showing some positive signs on effectiveness of Covid restrictions in Scotland – assertion that it is not the authoritative source (but of course the programme’s commentators feel free to opine on public health matters!) and an assertion that it is somewhat political in its comments – no input from the BBC host on the actual credentials of Independent SAGE membership.
(ii) prediction that Scotland will now follow England into national lockdown – moreover the SG SHOULD now follow England into a national lockdown regardless because people are “confused” by differences in restrictions between the different countries – presumably because people are confused about what country they live in!
(iii) a bit of a ‘rant’ by one contributor over the recent ‘care home report’ in Scotland – seemed to believe that, in terms, the SG was responsible for each and every negative Covid outcome in care homes and another contributor stated that the FM’s response following the report’s publication last week was wrong even when it was acknowledged by another present that she simply quoted what the report had actually concluded. Still wrong, still culpable. No input either on other evidence on what happened in Scotland’s care homes and scant input to give wider perspective.
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On Saturday’s 1805 hours BBC 1 TV News, Laura Keunssberg stating that if the devolved administrations don’t now follow Johnson’s lead and introduce a national lockdown, then, in terms, “the country” will have a problem.
So is BBC framing being designed now to make a ‘national’ lockdown the ‘right’ thing to do because the Westminster government is choosing to do this and the devolved administrations will lead to problems – to be responsible for confusion – if they don’t now follow suit?
I wonder how the media coverage will now play out.
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Nicola don’t make the same mistake again… close the Border (Uk and International) now to all non-essential traffic on Public Health grounds.
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Some of the British Nationalist English based papers are demanding that the border be closed. Some months ago, these same papers were parroting the Tory line – ‘there is no border, we are one country’.
Don’t do as we do, do as we say!
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I agree close the border between Scotland and England
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