The FM is too polite to say it but the death rate in Scottish care homes was 21% lower than in England and Wales

Here’s the truth about care home deaths:

Data from research by LSE, reported on May 14th in Care Home Professional:

More than 22 000 care home residents in England and Wales have died during the coronavirus pandemic, according to new research. In a new paper, the LSE said data on deaths had underestimated the impact of the pandemic on care home residents as it did not take into account the indirect mortality effects of the pandemic and/or because of problems with the identification of the disease as the cause of death. The paper said current data only accounted for an estimated 41.6% of all excess deaths in care homes.

In Scotland, up to 17th May there were 1 623 deaths in care homes where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

The population of England and Wales is 59 million, 10.7 times that of Scotland at 5.5 million so, all things being equal you might expect the death rate there to be 10.7 times 1 623 or 17 366.

So, the actual care home death rate in Scotland by mid-May, based on the LSE research was 21% lower than in England & Wales.


By 5 July there had been 1 939 deaths in Scottish care homes:

The actual rate for England & Wales by that point remains hidden.

5 thoughts on “The FM is too polite to say it but the death rate in Scottish care homes was 21% lower than in England and Wales”

  1. Does Scotland not also have a relatively older population compared to England too?

    (Would need to cross-reference this with percentage of population living in care too for an even better comparison)

    Liked by 3 people

  2. It’s not good science to use comparisons that are widely different in nature. The social demographics differ widely as do the racial characteristics in both England and Scotland. There’s also the matter of size, which on this occasion does make a considerable difference.

    Any observations made are essentially political not scientific.


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