Many English-born Scots moving to Yes, to SNP, and dumping the Tories

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From Panelbase for the Sunday Times on 3rd July 2020:

32% of those living in Scotland but born in England would vote Yes compared to 56% of those born in Scotland.

35% of those living in Scotland but born in England would vote SNP compared to 58% of those born in Scotland. 25% would vote Conservative compared to 19% of those born in Scotland.

These are significant differences but smaller than I would have guessed given the evidence that this group played a big part in the No vote in 2014:

Click to access 2014_referendum_2014_%E2%80%93_how_rural_scotland_voted.pdf

23% of those living in Scotland but born in England think Boris Johnson is doing a good job in his response to the Covid-19 outbreak compared to 21% of those born in Scotland.

67% of those living in Scotland but born in England think Nicola Sturgeon is doing a good job in his response to the Covid-19 outbreak compared to 75% of those born in Scotland.

These seem quite minor differences, smaller than those between gender and age groups. There is for example a 13% difference in approval of Nicola Sturgeon between younger and older women and a 9% difference in approval of Boris Johnson between younger women (14%) and younger men (23%). That last one’s a bit of a shocker.

https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-tables-for-publication-060720.pdf

In 2018:

Nearly two years earlier, again from Panelbase for the Sunday Times on the 4th October 2018:

26% of those living in Scotland but born in England would vote Yes compared to 46% of those born in Scotland.

So, over these two years we see a 23% increase in Yes support among those born in England.

21% of those living in Scotland but born in England would vote SNP compared to 41% of those born in Scotland. 43% would vote Conservative compared to 24% of those born in Scotland.

So, over these two years we see a large increase in SNP support (66%) and fall in Conservative support (42%) among those born in England.

Intriguingly two years ago, the English-born were more in favour or retaining the right to smack weans or bairns at 60% to 53%.

Both of these polls had samples of more than 1 000.

10 thoughts on “Many English-born Scots moving to Yes, to SNP, and dumping the Tories”

    1. That sounds about right, significant number I know that. Is the number growing I wonder. Of course a huge problem is the number of people that do not live in but own property in Scotland. Either the homes are empty or rented out. Also who would be on the voting register at an air b and b property? The person who pays the council tax? Can they vote? Non residents?

      It was said there was a convoy heading south on the A1 the day after indy ref in 2014, I can quite believe it. As with lockdown, on election day here in Edinburgh you can hardly move for private reg SUV’s. Many more than usual.

      It’s clear that we need those from the EU, those who are still here and I wonder what those numbers are now, it was signifucant in 2014, to vote in the next indy ref, as well as 16/17 year olds. As we know, EU citizens largely voted no in 2014 because the EngGov told them they’d be chucked out of Scotland if there was a yes vote!

      I vaguely remember there was a consultation on voting in another referendum, who should be able to vote? The subject of second homers and those who had just been resident for a very short time came up. Also when out knocking doors in the last Scottish election, English students said they would not vote SNP. They were also anti independence when asked about that!

      We cannot have a situation where temporary or even non residents are given a vote on the future of Scotland, a future for the people who live in Scotland and for their children and grandchildren.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. OTOH, my daughter was away on a gap year at the time and a friend of hers had got a medical residency in England about 3 months earlier. (Couldn’t get a suitable one in Scotland at the time.

        Both moved back to Scotland, both would’ve voted YES, neither allowed a vote. Maybe another thing to bear in mind next time?

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  1. Anecdotally, I’d say that’s folk who feel dismayed at Brexit happening. I’ve met people who are very passionate remain supporters and it’s definitely made them question the futility of the situation and what could be done politically.

    I’d be interested to know the answer to Sam’s question too.

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    1. I thought I had read somewhere 900,000 or so came to Scotland from England. Reading about it seems 400,000 to 5000,000 is more likely.

      Your final sentence , link provided, seems right enough.

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    2. I’m from Galloway, so I can only speak of that experience.

      Part of the reason why the difference could be that our English-born friends have a very loud voice in local politics. That’s not to say there aren’t Scottish born unionists with loud voices too! But I think the combination is what’s making a difference.

      There’s also a BIG differences between Wigtownshire and Stewartry and then again Dumfriesshire which in itself is quite economically bound up with Carlisle and its environs. But it all gets lumped together.

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